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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Betting tips on early season MLB totals

04.14.2014     07:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re two weeks into the marathon baseball season, but there hasn’t been a lot that stands out thusfar in the standings.  The Milwaukee Brewers are riding a nine-game winning streak into the new week, a surprise team with the best current record in baseball.  And the defending World Series champs, the Boston Red Sox, have slumped out of the gate, sitting in last place in the AL East. 

Frankly, we should expect these sorts of anomalies in early season play – in fact we should expect more of them than we’ve seen thusfar.  But there’s not much we can expect to accomplish from riding hot teams out of the gate and fading underachievers.  Based on two weeks’ worth of results, I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Brewers or against the Red Sox on a daily basis moving forward.  A hot or cold start is not necessarily a ‘leading indicator’ for a hot or cold season.

But MLB totals are a very different story.  I’ve written several previous articles about why I look to bet MLB totals – particularly Overs – all summer long.  To summarize three key points from those Read more


Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Sheldon Adelson remains hell-bent on gumming up the works

04.14.2014     07:29 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
One of the better articles we've come across regarding the online gambling vs. Sheldon Adelson saga courtesy of Slate.com. Lots of good links and reasons for you to despise Adelson and his cronies even more than you already do.


Adelson had already begun pressing for a ban through Las Vegas Sands, which spent $320,000 on lobbying in Washington last year. But his formation of the Coalition to Stop Internet Gambling signaled a new phase in the political influence game. The group hired former New York Gov. George Pataki, former Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, and former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb as national co-chairmen, and kicked off a national media campaign to convince the public of the ills of online gambling.











Boxing Gambling: Pacquiao at -230 betting favorite over Bradley

04.11.2014     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Big fight this weekend in Las Vegas with Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley hooking up at the MGM Grand. Bradley defeated Pacquiao as a +320 underdog back in June of 2012. Offshore sportsbooks currently have Pacquiao as a -230 favorite with the over/under rounds set at 9.5ov-350.


“There’s been good two-way action on this fight,” Bogdanovich said, “(but the price on Pacquiao) might go up a little at the end. I can see Pacquiao closing at like -240 or -250. But it won’t stray too far. It will be anywhere from -200 to -250, I believe , depending on each individual shop and the liability they have on it.”










Gambling Update: Atlantic City casino introduces sophisticated poker chips

04.10.2014     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

After getting burned by fake chips, Atlantic City's Borgata Casino was forced to go a more modern route. The new chips can be authenticated using some sort of UV light.


"This was very expensive, but very necessary," said Joe Lupo, the casino's senior vice president. "In order to have the biggest tournaments in Atlantic City and as the market leader, we need to ensure the integrity of the games."







The old counterfeit poker chips in the toilet trick

01.29.2014     06:28 AM     Read more


Tags: Poker




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: The Indiana Pacers' historic ATS slide

04.07.2014     08:02 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Indiana Pacers have been a remarkable pointspread story this year, worthy of a Wiseguy Report to examine in detail what has happened and why.  To be thorough, this story starts last year when the Pacers flexed their collective muscles, developing into a title contender for the first time in a decade.  

Indiana was good, not great, in the 2012-13 regular season.  They won 49 games, tied for the third best record in the (much) weaker of the two conferences.  Here’s an excerpt of what I wrote about the Pacers heading into the playoffs last year:

“A month ago, I would have listed the Pacers as Miami’s toughest Eastern Conference potential test.  Indiana’s defensive numbers rank among the best in the NBA, and low post behemoth Roy Hibbert is a very tough matchup for the Heat in the paint.  Indiana beat Miami twice during the regular season, and the Pacers were the last team to give the Heat real trouble in the playoffs last year, taking a 2-1 series lead in the Eastern Conference semi’s before the Heat closed out the series with three straight wins.

But the Pacers have not Read more


Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




NCAA Final Four Gambling: Kentucky a short favorite over UConn for title game

04.07.2014     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college basketball season comes to an end tonight with 8th seed Kentucky taking on 7th seed UConn. The Wildcats opened -3 at CRIS and -3.5 at Pinnacle but have since been bet down to -2.5 at most offshore sportsbooks. Yesterday, the total got steamed from 133.5 to 135. UK has gone over the total in four straight games. According to LVH, the Huskies were 100-1 to win the title prior to the start of the tournament while the Cats were 50-1.


“They have a lot going for them,” Ed Salmons, assistant sports book director at the LVH Superbook who oversees college basketball, said earlier this week. “They’re so 3-point dependent, and if they hit their shots and make a lot of them, it can change the whole complexion of the game.”



 



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats UConn Huskies




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Late season NBA betting opportunities Part 2

03.31.2014     08:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
You’ll be reading more than enough about the Final Four in the week to come.  You’ll be able to find my initial take on the two games in my ESPN.com piece, midweek.  So I’m going to focus on the NBA in this week’s Wiseguy Report, picking up right where I left off last week, when I broke down a handful of Eastern Conference morphers

It’s worth noting that since I wrote that article, blindly supporting the three bet-on teams that I mentioned (Cleveland, Philadelphia and Brooklyn) while fading my one ‘bet-against squad (Indiana) has produced a 10-5 ATS result.  Hopefully this edition, focusing on Western Conference morphers, will produce similar short term dividends.

The San Antonio Spurs success can’t be a surprise to any breathing human.  No team in the league has been more consistent over the past decade and a half, and San Antonio came one brutal overtime loss short of winning the NBA Championship last Read more


Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Denver Nuggets New Orleans Pelicans Golden State Warriors Minnesota Timberwolves Teddy Covers




Anti-online gambling lawmakers scoff a poker being a game of skill

03.28.2014     08:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Man, these anti-gambling crusaders are pricks.


“If you want to have online gambling, then come to the Congress. ... If you want to have a poker exception, offer an amendment and see if it will pass,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who introduced the bill today along with Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah.

“Sheldon has aligned himself with most Baptists in South Carolina,” Graham said, when asked about the association of his efforts with Adelson’s campaign. “I’m on solid footing with the people of South Carolina that I represent. The fact that Sheldon is on board is a good thing.”






Tags: Poker




MLB Handicapping: Projections and Season O/U Wins

03.27.2014     07:33 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from the new FiveThirtyEight.com blog on baseball predictions/projections.


Speaking of those Vegas over/unders, they’re the most crowdsourced projections we have. Every spring, various sportsbooks release baseline win totals for each team in the upcoming season, inviting bettors to place wagers on whether they believe a team will win more or less games than the oddsmakers think. These over/unders are not technically predictions — their aim is different from PECOTA’s or even Sports Illustrated’s — but they’re hugely predictive because of the stakes involved.

To get a sense of how Vegas sets these over/unders, I spoke with Ed Salmons, head oddsmaker for the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino, which cleared nearly 1 million sports bets in 2013. Like Cannella, Salmons doesn’t use a strictly algorithmic approach, although he is well-versed in sabermetrics. “I look at computerized [projections] before putting numbers out,” he said. “You’d be foolish not Read more



Tags: MLB




NCAA Tournament Gambling: Short lined games abound for Sweet Sixteen

03.26.2014     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers are expecting the unexpected with Thursday and Friday's NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen games. Every game save for San Diego State-Arizona is currently lined at 4.5 or less. Four of last year's eight Sweet Sixteen games were lined at 5 or above.


“These teams are getting so close as far as their talent,” Vaccaro said. “The gap between teams isn’t that great anymore, and you can really see it in the point spreads. There is no game here that would shock anyone with the outcome.”

“The Cinderella slipper is guaranteed to be in the Elite Eight,” McCormick said. “Dayton was probably the best team of the first two rounds for us, with their upset over Ohio State and then following it by beating Syracuse. They were great for the house.”






Tags: College Basketball



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 15, 2014 09:52 PM.