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NFL Gambling: Betting markets spent nearly entire season fading the Indianapolis Colts

01.10.2014     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
If you follow the NFL betting markets, you're well aware of its distaste for the Indianapolis Colts. Bettors considered last year's 11-5 SU/ATS mark to be fraudulent and were hell-bent on cashing in on the correction. It looked like a lucrative move as the Colts failed to cover in Weeks 1 and 2. It didn’t last however as Indy outpaced the market once again with a current run of 11-4 ATS. Ironically, after Weeks 1 and 2, in which the Colts took money based on CRIS's opening and closing numbers, they went 14 straight weeks without doing so. In four different weeks, the opening and closing numbers were the same. Which leaves 10 games (seven straight) in which the market faded this squad. This week, we've yet to see much of an anti-Colts push as CRIS opened +7-110 and currently shows a slight lean juice-wise towards New England. However, based on the market's track record with Indy, it seems likely at some point that 7.5 will be the prevailing number.

Based on CRIS’s opening and closing lines

vs. Kansas City
Colts Open -2.5
Colts Close +2

vs. Jacksonville
Colts Open Read more

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots

NFL Playoff Gambling: Sportsbooks offer differing opinions on Indianapolis-New England

01.07.2014     12:12 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Interesting line move at Grande for Saturday's Indianapolis-New England game. Grande, which is commonly referred to as a "leading indication sportsbook" has moved its line six times – all towards the Indy side. Grande opened the Colts +7.5-10 and from there dropped to +7.5-15, +7.5-20, +7.5-25, +7ev, and to its current number of +7-25. That number is a far cry from Las Vegas shops like LVH and William Hill that offer 7.5-110. CRIS has also shown respect for the Colts; opening +7-110 and yet to move off the key number to +7.5.

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Indianapolis Colts

NFL Handicapping: Early line moves for Divisional Round

01.06.2014     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Next week's NFL Divisional Round playoff matchups are set and lines have been posted both offshore and in Las Vegas. So far we haven’t seen a significant amount of market activity. There was/is some differing opinion on the Colts-Patriots game with LVH opening NE -9 and most of Las Vegas currently -7.5. Offshore, most shops have NE -7 with juice. A few (CRIS, Heritage) are offering 7 -110 on both sides.

New Orleans at Seattle
Saturday, 1:35 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Seattle -8 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Seattle -8 O/U 48
LVH Opener: Seattle -7.5 O/U 48
LVH Current: Seattle -8 O/U 47.5

Indianapolis at New England
Saturday, 5:15 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -7 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: New England -7 O/U 52.5
LVH Opener: New England Read more

Tags: NFL

NFL Handicapping: Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

12.27.2013     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A semi-detailed look at Week 17's playoff scenarios. Heading into Sunday there are four playoff spots still yet to be determined.

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, and San Francisco are in. If the Seahawks beat St. Louis they have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. If the Seahawks lose and San Francisco beats Arizona, the 49ers would win the West (and earn the top seed if Carolina loses). If both teams lose and Carolina beats Atlanta, then the Panthers are the top seed.

As for the rest of the NFC, Dallas at Philadelphia and Green Bay at Chicago are win-and-in matchups. New Orleans earns a wild card berth if it beats Tampa Bay. The Saints can also win the NFC South if Carolina losses. Arizona needs to beat the 49ers to go along with a Saints loss.

AFC: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are in. The Broncos are the top seed if they beat Oakland. If they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Pats are the no. 1 seed. If the Pats lose and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals would move into the no. 2 slot. The Colts can move to no. 2 with losses by New England and Cincinnati. KC is already locked Read more

Tags: NFL

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas

NFL Handicapping: Brady wants offense to play at faster tempo

12.19.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England at Baltimore -2.5 O/U 44.5

A couple of quotes from New England quarterback Tom Brady about potentially picking up the pace against the Baltimore Ravens.

“Maybe we should do it more often,” Brady said on Wednesday, after the team’s first practice of the week in advance of their final regular-season road game, Sunday at Baltimore. “I just think we’re trying to figure out what we think is best to do to help us win. It just hasn’t really required that. But we go fast plenty of times, in those two-minute situations where we’ve done a good job.”

“To run three plays and punt really quickly doesn’t do you any more good than running three plays and huddling and all that, and [then] punting. Ultimately we have to score enough points and that

Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens

NFL Week 12 Betting Recap

11.25.2013     11:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Excellent betting recap of NFL Week 12 for our friend Stat Intelligence. Check out the links below...

Early Sunday Betting Recap

Late Sunday Betting Recap

Patriots come from behind to beat Broncos

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Carolina slips past New England

11.19.2013     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It definitely had the feel of a playoff game…matching two teams who are clearly playoff caliber right now. A lot of those go right down to the wire. You watched. You know the tightrope wire this game was walking in the final minutes. Let’s see the numbers…

Carolina 24 (-3), New England 20

New England: 390 yards, 5.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 50% third downs

Carolina: 300 yards, 5.6 per-play, 0 turnovers, 73% third downs

Other Numbers

Rushing Yards: New England 107, Carolina 103

Passing Stats: New England 29-40-1-283, Carolina 19-28-0-197

Drive Points: New England 14, Carolina 24

Stat Score: New England 22, Carolina 18

Sloppiness: New England 21, Carolina 9

Pace: 139 plays + penalties + punts + field goal attempts (extreme clock eating)

Another game where both teams moved the ball very effectively in a slow-motion “take what the defense gives Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: New England preps for Carolina's Cam Newton

11.14.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
New England at Carolina -2.5 O/U 45.5

Good article on New England's preperation for mobile quarterbacks. The Patriots take on Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football. 

"I do [like practicing against Tebow]," Wilfork said. "There might be some times this year that we have to face a quarterback like that. He brings a whole different aspect to the game for us, being able to play against a guy who can run that type of offense is a plus for this team. Not just Tim being here, but it's a plus for this defense because we have to be able to stop some teams that come out and do that to us."

We knew coming into the season this was going to be an area we needed to make sure that we had enough defense for and we spent enough time so our players understood their different responsibilities with this type of

Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers


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