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NFL Handicapping Trends: Non-Conference Totals

09.25.2013     01:17 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The natural order of game importance in the NFL is one of the first things any handicapper/bettor has to learn and subsequently apply. Divisional games are by far the most important to all teams followed by conference and then non-conference. That being known, the general theories are as follows: 1) division games will be hotly contested and potentially lower scoring because of team familiarity, 2) conference action will be intense but maybe not quite as intense as division rivalries and 3) non-conference tilts are the games where letdowns and lesser focus can enable abnormal scores to occur. Of course this knowledge is simply a starting point and nothing more than one of many ingredients to be considered in each individual game handicap. Because there are eight of them this week, I’m going to use this article to look at handicapping non-conference totals.

So far this season, there have been 13 non-conference games played and the record sits at 8-5 61.5% to the over. All 13 games have had final score differentials of at least 3.5 points from the closing total and 10 of the 13 (76.9%) have ended 11.5 points or more off of the closer. Those are 10 very easy wins Read more



Tags: NFL Rob Veno




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 3

09.25.2013     06:15 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Breaking Down The Undefeated and Winless ATS Teams
Like I did last week, I will take a look at the groups of winless and undefeated ATS teams after Week 3 of the season. Dallas, Miami, Seattle and the New York Jets are 3-0 ATS. Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, and Washington are 0-3 ATS.

Dallas had a dominant showing on both sides of the football against St. Louis. Miami was heavily outgained by Atlanta but put together a last minute game winning touchdown drive to get the win. Seattle crushed lowly Jacksonville. The NY Jets won the battle of rookie quarterbacks against Buffalo. I think the team most likely to fall out of the undefeated ATS ranks in Week 4 is Miami who will be taking a step up in class on the road against a New Orleans Saints team that has played solid defense for the first time in ages to go along with their potent offense.

The New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers are two teams that have been very good for nearly a decade yet they here they sit, 0-3 ATS. And I’m not sure either one has it in them to turn things around and get back on track. Both teams’ struggles show how Read more



Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




NFL Gambling Trends: Betting favorites have covered four straight in London series

09.23.2013     12:38 PM     Printer Friendly
The first of two London games goes on Sunday with Pittsburgh taking on Minnesota. San Francisco and Jacksonville (huh?) are slated to play in late October. Below is the betting history of the London series. Slight lean towards favorites (4-2 ATS) and unders (2-4 O/U).

NFL Betting Results in London 2007-present
Year
Team
Team
Final
Side ATS
Total
2013
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
???
???
???
2012
New England (-7.5)
St. Louis
NE 45, STL 7
Favorite
Over 46
2011
Chicago (-1.5)
Tampa Bay
CHI 24, TB 18
Favorite
Under 44.5
2010
Denver
San Francisco (-2)
SF 24, DEN 17
Favorite
Under 41
2009
New England (-15.5)
Tampa Bay
NE 35, TB 7
Favorite
Under 44.5
2008
San Diego
New Orleans (+3)
NO 37, SD 32
Underdog
Over 45.5
2007
NY Giants
Miami (+10)
NYG 13, MIA 10
Underdog
Under 47.5





Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Minnesota Vikings




NFL Handicapping: Minnesota Vikings the top play for Week 3's SuperContest

09.22.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Hasn't been a strong start to the NFL season for the LVH’s SuperContest consensus picks. The top six plays in Weeks 1 and 2 went a combined 2-9-1 ATS. And to no surprise we see Minnesota (who opened -3 and is now as high as -7) as the most popular selection for Week 3. Rounding out the top six are the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, St. Louis Rams, Atlanta Falcons, and Pittsburgh Steelers.




Tags: NFL Minnesota Vikings




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 2

09.17.2013     02:46 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A “Total” Stalemate
Unders and Overs split right down the middle in Week 1 going 8-8 and it was more of the same in Week 2 with another 8-8 record. That 16 Overs and 16 Unders through the first two weeks of the season – give or take a few due depending on what sportsbook you play at. Those results suggest that oddsmakers are starting to catch up to how much the league has changed and how favorable everything is for offenses. Three games saw more than 60 points scored in Week 2 but on the flip side, there were also three games with fewer than 30 points scored. My best advice with totals is to disregard a lot of the trends floating around in the betting community – especially those that go back three or more years. The game has evolved and each one deserves its very own handicap with pace and situation two of many factors to consider.

Proof that Rookie Starting Quarterbacks Can Be Perfect
Raise your hand if you thought that E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith would be a combined 4-0 ATS through the first two weeks of the season. Manuel and Smith have had their flickers of solid play but neither has been consistent Read more



Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Bengals win and cover vs. Steelers

09.17.2013     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Not exactly the most exhilarating Monday Nighter. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals have played some bruising battles recently…and it was that kind of game again. You’ll see in the linescore that Cincinnati won by playing a cleaner game…and it was that cleaner game allowed them to win time of possession by more than 11 minutes.

Cincinnati 20 (-6), Pittsburgh 10

Pittsburgh: 278 yards, 5.1 per-play, 2 turnovers, 25% third downs

Cincinnati: 407 yards, 5.2 per-play, 0 turnovers, 41% third downs

On a per-play basis, they were virtually equal. Cincinnati moved the chains more effectively, which allowed them to keep the ball longer. Pittsburgh finished 3 of 12 on third down conversions…but it was 1 of 10 before they nailed a couple of irrelevant ones on their final drive that ran the clock out. Pittsburgh was only 10% when the game was being decided.

Other Numbers

Rushing Read more



Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals Stat Intelligence




Monday Night Football Betting Consensus: Three out of four bettors backing Cincinnati Bengals

09.16.2013     02:36 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -6 O/U 40

Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Side
Cincinnati -6 (74.4%) vs. Pittsburgh

Total
Pittsburgh-Cincinnati OVER 40 (51.4%

Moneyline
Cincinnati -260 (52.4%) vs. Pittsburgh





Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals




NFL Handicapping: Cincinnati Bengals look to push pace vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

09.16.2013     11:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -6 O/U 41.5

It sounds like Cincinnati wants to play at a quicker pace tonight. Four of the last five games in the series have gone UNDER the total with the Bengals producing 13, 17, 7, 17, and 7 points.


"The tempo has been a big part of what our focus has been this training camp," Dalton says. "The faster you play, the more plays you're going to get and the more plays you get the more chances you have to score." 

"Blitz the defense before the defense blitzes you," is how Gruden puts it. "It's important for us when we do huddle to still come out fast … play with great tempo to try and dictate what we want to do instead of the defense dictating to us."







Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers




Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Redskins win and cover vs. Steelers

08.20.2013     06:28 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Ben Roethlisberger took the field for the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday Night against the Washington Redskins…and threw a first quarter touchdown pass. Unfortunately, it was too the wrong team!

That pick six put Washington ahead 7-0, and they would maintain their lead all night on the way to a sluggish 24-13 victory that had a lot of sports fans hopping back periodically to pro wrestling on another channel. Would I do such a thing? Yes! Yes! Yes!

Numbers and notes from Steelers/Redskins...
(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)
 
Washington 24 (-3), Pittsburgh 13

Total Yardage: Pittsburgh 300, Washington 310

Passing Stats: Read more



Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Pittsburgh Steelers Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Preseason News and Notes

08.19.2013     08:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. During August, Teddy records every game, then watches every first half on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have. This week: AFC tidbits from the first two weeks of the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals – Boy this team looks impressive; a potential Super Bowl sleeper in a conference that has no clear no. 3 behind Denver and New England to start the season. This was a top 10 defense last year, and looks even better this year, positively loaded with the addition of Super Bowl winner James Harrison from Pittsburgh. Harrison was run blitzing and making plays in the backfield, now the inside linebacker in a 4-3, a new position. Lots of blitzing, worth noting in preseason! The position battles here aren’t huge ones – a battle for the starting center job (Kyle Cook is the favorite to win it) and battles for the second and third receiver after AJ Green. No three-and-outs while Andy Dalton was on the field; he did a great job audibling out of bad situational play calls

Buffalo Bills Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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