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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Betting markets don't believe in Thunder and Clippers

04.18.2016     10:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When it comes to the chase for the NBA Championship this year, Golden State has taken all the oxygen in the room. What little hype that has been able to escape the Warriors vortex has gravitated towards San Antonio, especially as the Spurs were chasing the NBA all-time record for most home wins in a season. 

Then Kobe went out and scored 60 on the final night of the regular season.  LeBron announced that he was getting off social media and immediately proceeded to go on a ten game tear to close out the regular season, leading the prohibitive favorite to come out of the East, Cleveland Cavaliers.  The national media spotlight just isn’t big enough to cover more stories than the easy ones that have fallen into their laps over the last few months.

And that leaves two teams that I think are legitimate title contenders sitting as relative afterthoughts in the national media spotlight and in the betting markets.  The Oklahoma City Thunder were priced in the 15-1 range to win the NBA Title entering the playoffs.  The Los Angeles Clippers were even higher, priced in the 30:1 range.  Even though the spotlight is shining brightly on the Read more



Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Cippers Oklahoma City Thunder Teddy Covers




Sports Betting Podcast 4-18-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers

04.18.2016     10:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers. Rob and host Andrew Lange discussed tonight's MLB games while Tedy broke down all three NBA Playoff matchups for this evening.

Today's segments
Full Show

Rob Veno - MLB

Teddy Covers - NBA Playoffs

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: MLB NBA Rob Veno Teddy Covers Andrew Lange




NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks

04.16.2016     07:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boston +5.5 at Atlanta O/U 204.5
Recommendation: Boston


Something pretty remarkable happened on Wednesday Night, in Game 82 of the regular season.  It got overshadowed by Kobe Bryant’s 60-point outing in his final career game, leading the Lakers to a last minute come-from-behind win over Utah.  It got overshadowed by the Warriors winning #73, finishing with the best regular season record in NBA history.  But make no mistake about it – it was meaningful!

The Boston Celtics defense stunk for a good portion of the last two months.  Since the All Star Break, Boston’s D has gone from allowing 99.6 points per 100 possessions up to 104.7 pp/100.  Over their previous eight games, they ranked #19 in the NBA, allowing more than 106 pp/100.  In the first half of Game #82 against Miami, the Celtics defense got lit up once again.  Miami led 62-38 at halftime, on their way to an easy blowout win over Boston.

But something funny happened on the way to that easy win – the Celtics started playing defense at a level we haven’t seen from them for months.  The Heat hit their first Read more



Tags: NBA Boston Celtics Atlanta Hawks Teddy Covers




MLB Betting Podcast 4-14-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers

04.14.2016     10:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy and host Andrew Lange talked today's MLB slate.

Today's segments
Teddy Covers - MLB

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: MLB Teddy Covers Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the early season MLB betting markets

04.11.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Matt Harvey lost again on Sunday, with the Mets priced as high as -280 here in Las Vegas.  Chris Archer leads the majors in strikeouts, while King Felix ranks second as I write this early Monday morning. Their two teams -- Tampa and Seattle -- teams are a combined 0-4 in the four starts from those two aces.   I closed out last week writing about how betting on aces – the guys that advanced metrics really, truly love – has evolved into a negative expectation wager over the last few years.  The quants have emerged as the dominating force in the MLB betting marketplace and there’s no way that I’ve uncovered to beat them at their own game.

So, I’ve been focusing on the opening week of the MLB season with an anti-quant mentality, looking to take advantage of what the betting markets are undervaluing, not overvaluing.  If the markets are too tilted towards starting pitching, that leaves three areas that aren’t appropriately priced, in my opinion – lineups, bullpens and streaks. 

There’s already early season action for streak bettors, with the Orioles winning while the Twins and Braves keep Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

04.08.2016     10:28 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago (Hammel) -135 at Arizona (Ray) O/U 9
Recommendation: Over


Even with the roof closed at Chase Field on Friday (decent chance of desert rain tonight), I’m still looking to bet the Over in Phoenix tonight.  Both of these teams have come out of the gate swinging – literally.  We’ve seen 17 home runs hit through the first four games at Chase Field.  Three of the first four games here have produced 15 runs or more.  And there’s no reason to expect anything dramatically different tonight.

Lineups are undervalued in the 2016 MLB betting marketplace, with starting pitchers exerting enormous influence over the prices for both sides and totals.  These two lineups have no business with a total of 9 right now.  Chicago has pounded out 29 runs in their first three games, with 14 extra base hits and an OPS of .920 in the process.  Arizona has scored 25 runs in four games even with AJ Pollack out with a broken elbow; hitting .295 as a team with 16 extra bae hits and an OPS of .851.  As we saw last night, either one of these lineups is capable of approaching or exceeding the total Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Arizona Diamondbacks Teddy Covers




MLB Betting Podcast 4-6-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Drew Martin and Teddy Covers

04.06.2016     10:28 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Drew Martin and Teddy Covers. Both handicappers and host Andrew Lange talked today's MLB slate.

Today's segments
Full Show

Drew Martin - National League

Teddy Covers - American League

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: MLB Drew Martin Teddy Covers Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

04.04.2016     10:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Los Angeles (Kershaw) at San Diego (Ross) +180 O/U 6
Recommendation: San Diego


Clayton Kershaw is a true ace, arguably the best pitcher in the NL.  Last year, he became the first pitcher in MLB history to finish among the Top 3 in Cy Young voting in five consecutive seasons.  His team finished in first place.  And oh, by the way, if you bet on Kershaw in every game, you lost more than five units over the season.  And given the nature of the 2016 MLB betting marketplace, wagering on the best pitcher in the NL is likely to be a money losing proposition moving forward.

All of Kershaw’s dominant numbers are baked into this line, leaving the Dodgers priced as $2 road favorites this evening.  His counterpart on the Padres side, Tyson Ross, put up truly dominant numbers last year, the only pitcher in the majors besides Cubs ace Jake Arrieta to finish in the Top 10 in both strikeouts per nine innings and ground ball rates last year.

Arrieta finished the season as the most profitable pitcher in baseball, but Ross was on the wrong end of the  luck equation repeatedly, finishing the season with only ten Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres Teddy Covers




MLB Betting Podcast 4-4-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers

04.04.2016     10:23 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers. Both handicappers and host Andrew Lange talked today's MLB slate.

Today's segments
Full Show

Rob Veno - National League

Teddy Covers - American League

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: MLB Rob Veno Teddy Covers Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part II

04.04.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I illustrated how the quants have come to dominate the MLB betting marketplace over the course of the last few seasons, completely changing the value equation moving forward.  Advanced metric starting pitching stats have become the primary basis for all baseball moneylines, leaving a market that devalues every other aspect of the game.  That leaves opportunities for alternative strategies to succeed here in 2016 and beyond.

I used several examples last week to demonstrate my point about the modern markets.  The following example is probably the best of the bunch, using the strikeouts per nine innings advanced metric stat (K/9).

In 2005, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, John Lackey, AJ Burnett and Jason Schmidt.  Six of the eight starters produced a profit for their supporters, and if you bet on the leaders in the K/9 stat for the Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers



8

Page 8 of 142
"Teddy Covers'"

August

23


 
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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 24, 2016 05:06 AM.