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NFL Handicapping: Rogers Centre offers little homefield edge for Buffalo Bills
10.27.2011 08:03 AM
Printer Friendly
Washington
at
Buffalo
-6 O/U 45.5
Note that Sunday’s game between the Redskins and Bills will take place at Toronto’s Rogers Centre. According to Buffalo safety George Wilson, the venue provides
little to no homefield edge
, something the Bills have taken advantage of this season with a 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS mark at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Wilson later hinted that the no opener container law is going to put a major hamper on the pregame festivities. It has typically been a Sportsmemo policy to deduct a half point to the line on games in which no booze is allowed outside the stadium. The Bills are 0-3 SU north of the border over the last three seasons.
“You see just as many jerseys for the opposing team as you do for the Bills. They cheer for any big play, regardless of which team makes it.”
“I
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Buffalo Bills
Washington Redskins
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Bettor nails 15-team NFL parlay for $100K
10.26.2011 01:23 PM
Printer Friendly
Missed this from last week. A Delaware man reportedly hit a
$5 15-team NFL parlay
that put a cool $100K in his pocket.
The bet was introduced during the 2009 season. One player had 14 straight winners that year. And lost the last game. Last year, another player had the first 14. And lost the last game.
Since the bet was introduced, $370,000 had been wagered on it with no return. Before Week 5, $12,100 was wagered on the parlay. So, the Delaware Lottery actually lost $87,900 on the Week 5 bet. Still, the lottery is $270,000 in the black overall from the 15-team parlay wager.
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NFL Gambling Notes: Pittsburgh defense no match for Brady and Patriots
10.26.2011 01:04 PM
Printer Friendly
New England
-3 at
Pittsburgh
O/U 50.5
Good article on the reasons behind Tom Brady and New England's
offensive success
against Pittsburgh. The Patriots have won and covered four of the last five in the series. The lone exception was in 2008 when Pittsburgh beat the Brady-less Pats 33-10. In the four wins, Brady combined to complete 107-of-151 passes for 1,328 yards, 9 TDs and 1 INT.
"It's just a terrible matchup for the Steelers," Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. explained. "Any time you design a defense or offense, you're going to have strengths and weaknesses. ... Their defense isn't a good fit for the Patriots. If you're just looking at the roster, you want to force the Steelers to play nickel. You want to take Casey Hampton off the field when he's healthy and replace him with William Gay. Hampton is a good player and Gay isn't. The
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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success
10.26.2011 11:46 AM
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We won both of our top-play 20* Big Drives in Week 7 when the Houston Texans (+3) destroyed the Tennessee Titans 41-7 and the Arizona-Pittsburgh game went over the total in a 32-20 Steelers win. The Chargers managed to blow yet another game for us but we still posted a profitable Week 7 in the NFL.
Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. The Saints outrushed the Colts 218-155, so when both teams rush for over 150 yards and the higher rushing total won the game, I’ll count that as a SU/ATS winner. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards in victory have covered the pointspread 72% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 23-4 SU and 20-6 ATS (77%).
Turnovers cost the Redskins, Raiders and Colts in defeat, as those teams were all -3 or greater in the turnover column. In fact, teams that are -3 or greater are 1-13 ATS this season (0-14 SU). Teams that are -2 or greater in the turnover column are 4-24-1 ATS (6-23 SU), so turnovers are proving once again to have a significant impact on teams winning and/or covering the pointspread. Rather than beat yourself up over a loss with your team suffering turnover
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Fairway Jay spots NFL betting trend following low scoring games
10.26.2011 09:46 AM
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I will share some interesting information and ATS data passed along to me recently. I posted some information in the Sportsmemo forum about the Cleveland-Seattle game last week in which the Browns won 6-3 (pushed ATS) despite a 43:00-17:00 time of possession advantage and 298 to 127 total yards edge. The Seahawks managed just eight first downs and 2.7 yards per play as backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst struggled to move the offense. The Browns also had a 2-1 turnover advantage, and yet despite all of that, they still did not cover the pointspread; ultimately having a 24-yard FG blocked with three minutes remaining.
With such offensive ineptitude, it’s no surprise that the public is lining up against these two teams this week. Their opponents, Cincinnati and San Francisco, are also off a bye. But history shows that following a game in which there was 10 or less points scored, these ugly offenses and offenders are actually good bets. In fact, as an underdog, they are strong.
Since 1989, there have been only 18 games where both teams combined to score 10 points or less. These teams have followed by going 22-13-1 ATS after their inept offensive efforts the
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Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks
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NFL Handicapping: Colts back on road after historic loss to Saints
10.25.2011 11:55 AM
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Indianapolis
at
Tennessee
-9 O/U 43.5
According to a database search, the last time a team lost by 50 or more points in an NFL game was back in 2009 when New England hammered Tennessee 59-0. With help from an immediate bye week, the Titans actually put together one of the greatest turnarounds in league history. After starting 0-6 (the last of which the loss to the Patriots), they won five straight and finished 8-2 SU. Unfortunately, we aren't confident enough to predict that type of success moving forward with the Colts. Especially with a clueless coach who felt his
team's effort
against the Saints was "good".
"I think the effort was good. The performance was certainly not good," Caldwell said. "We're all disappointed and frustrated, but we just did not play well as we're capable of."
"We're right at the bottom, right at the
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NFL Handicapping: New York Giants rested and ready following bye week
10.25.2011 11:27 AM
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Miami
at
New York Giants
-10 O/U 43
Currently atop the NFC East at 4-2, the New York Giants seem to be in good spirits following their
bye week
. After Sunday's home tilt against Miami, the G-Men endure a brutal stretch: at New England, at San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, at New Orleans, vs. Green Bay, and at Dallas. Under head coach Tom Coughlin, the Giants are 4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS and 5-2 O/U off of a bye.
“[We’re] coming off a big win [and] it was good to get away from things,” Manning said. “But we have to make sure we come back from things refreshed, legs under us ready to continue to work hard, have a great week of preparation and get ready for Miami.”
“Hopefully [future success] will be because we’ve come back re-focused and ready to go. If anything, the preparation should
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Fairway Jay's Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 7
10.25.2011 07:17 AM
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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
Week 7 NFL favorites went 7-6 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 49-50-4 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. Three division games in Week 7 as underdogs went 2-1 ATS. Home underdogs went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. For the season, home underdogs are 12-19 SU and 17-13-1 ATS. Scoring was down again in Week 7 with the past two weeks averaging 41 ppg. Totals went 6-7 O/U and are 56-45-2 O/U YTD. There have been
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Teddy Covers: Week 7 NFC Betting News and Notes Part II
10.25.2011 07:05 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Welcome to Teddy Covers’ unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. Today: NFC Tidbits from Week 7 Part II. If you missed Part I,
click here
.
Detroit
The opposition was called for 14 false start penalties in the two games coming into this ballgame, and the crowd was a factor again today. The combination of the best defensive front in the NFL and a suddenly strong home field has made it increasingly difficult for opposing teams to get their snaps off without a hitch. These false start penalties matter and they’re not something that will be readily apparent from looking at a box score. Detroit’s defensive front has 'Fearsome Foursome', 'Steel Curtain' or 'Purple People Eater' capabilities – quite possibly one of the best defensive
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Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers
St. Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks
Teddy Covers
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A behind-the-counter look at Las Vegas sportsbooks during football season
10.24.2011 07:58 AM
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Article from the
Las Vegas Sun
on some of the swings sportsbooks endure during a typical football weekend. One game in particular that helped the books was San Francisco's parlay crushing victory over Detroit two weeks ago.
“I can’t pinpoint what I do or how I do it. I don’t think anyone can. You can see what’s coming sometimes with the help of experience, feel. You just put the house in the best position to minimize your risk. You’ve got to have luck, too. We’re in the gaming business. The good news is we’ll have another set of games next week.”
“They don’t care what the spreads are. They’re just betting them because the teams are covering the spreads,” Rood said.
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