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NCAAF Betting Notes: Virginia defense poised for big improvements
08.24.2011 08:40 AM
Printer Friendly
Look for Virginia's defense to be
much improved
in head coach Mike London's second season with 10 returning starters. Last year, ACC teams needed an average of 15.57 plays to score a touchdown against the Cavaliers. To put that in perspective, Boston College's opponents needed 47.58 plays to punch in six. Compared to Virginia, only Indiana and Kansas had a worse defensive efficiency ranking among BCS Conference schools. Eliminate games against I-AA Richmond and VMI and the Cavs allowed 31.9 ppg and over 400 ypg of offense. Defensive coordinator Jim Reid said the team's goal this year is to hold opponents under 105 ypg rushing and 225 ypg passing. That will be a massive gain considering UVA held only one team (VMI) to less 105 yards rushing. All but two projected defensive starters are upperclassmen and seven are seniors. This unit has the
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Virginia Cavaliers
Mike London
ACC
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies
08.23.2011 12:51 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Houston (Norris) at Colorado (White) -165 O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Over
The Rockies have been an over machine at home of late. They’ve already cashed six over tickets in the first seven games of their current home stand thanks to a hot hitting lineup and a pitching staff that has really fallen apart in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Houston has come alive offensively over the past week, despite a lineup that features four rookie starters. After last night’s true slugfest – 34 batters reached base via hit or walk, with 11 extra base hits and 14 runs to show for it – there’s no reason to expect anything different tonight.
Houston’s Bud Norris has declined markedly since the All-Star break. His ERA, WHIP and batting average against are all up; his strikeouts are way down. Norris has never pitched in the Mile High air before and he’s taking a big step up in class after facing the likes of the light hitting Dodgers (twice), Cubs, Pirates (twice) and Padres on the
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Alex White
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Teddy Covers
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NCAAF Betting Preview: Rutgers sticks with run-based offense
08.22.2011 01:22 PM
Printer Friendly
It is common practice throughout college football that when a particular offensive or defensive system doesn't work a change occurs. The best example of this is teams who can't score often opt for up-tempo, spread offenses in hopes of duplicating Oregon-like numbers. But the move can sometimes backfire, especially when you don't have the personnel to run it properly.
Rutgers
is taking the complete opposite approach and sticking to the pro-style, run based offense 11th year head coach Greg Schiano has been noted for. We view this as a positive as a radical change in offensive philosophy can take a year or more to adapt to.
There will however be a learning curve as the Scarlet Knights brought in their third offensive coordinator in three years with former Pittsburgh/California OC Frank Cignetti hired this past offseason. According to Cignetti, Rutgers will do whatever it takes to
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NCAAF Handicapping: Regression toward the mean for Wisconsin Badgers
08.22.2011 07:28 AM
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Some
impressive stats
pointed out by a local newspaper on Wisconsin’s 2010 campaign. So impressive, that we as bettors should perhaps expect some "regression toward the mean" this season. As the author pointed out, since Bret Bielema took over in 2006, the team's offensive yards per play showed steady improvement: 5.6 ypp, 5.7, 5.8, and 5.9. But last season, it jumped to a whopping 6.7. The same thing occurred with UW's yards per point (10.7) which was good for No. 1 in the country. Tack on Scott Tolzien's Manning-esque 73.2% pass completions (Russell Wilson has never had a season better than 60%), a +14 TO margin (-7 in Bielema’s previous four years combined) and two one-point victories and it is easy to assume that
Wisconsin
may not be as fortunate this season.
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Bret Bielema
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Saturday NFL Preseason Betting News and Notes
08.20.2011 08:06 AM
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Betting news and notes for Saturday's NFL Preseason games. Thanks to Brent Crow and Rob Veno for helping put these together.
Tennessee
- Head coach Mike Munchak said he wants his starters too play
25-30 plays
. He also seeks an opportunity for the first-team offense to work on the two-minute drill.
St. Louis
- The Rams plans to "unveil" more of first-year offensive coordinator
Josh McDaniel's offense
against Tennessee.
"I think the so called starters, that group of core guys will play more," Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo said. "I don't think we'll go into the second half with them, but if we can get them through the first half. ... Now if the play count is really high in the middle of the second quarter that might
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NFLX Betting Notes: New Orleans Saints starters will play 20-25 snaps
08.19.2011 08:04 AM
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New Orleans -1.5 at Houston O/U 37
New Orleans
head coach Sean Payton said the starters will go
20-25 snaps
which should get them well into the second quarter and potentially halftime against
Houston
. The Saints were one of the bigger betting market movers; opening as 2.5-point underdog but now favored as high as -2 (Grande, Jazz).
“From a snap count, somewhere between 20 and 25 plays,’’ Payton said. “Hopefully close to 25 plays. That may or may not get us to the half, but somewhere in that range.’’
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Expectations are high for Nebraska Cornhuskers
08.18.2011 01:10 PM
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Taking a look at the seemingly lofty expectations for
Nebraska
as it enters its inaugural campaign Big Ten season.
Season Over/Under Wins: 10
Odds to win Big Ten Legends Division: -250 (Greek)
Odds to win Big Ten Championship: +150 (Greek)
Field to win Big Ten Championship outside of Nebraska: -250 (5Dimes)
Odds to win BCS Championship: +2500 (5Dimes)
USA Today Preseason Poll: No. 11
Golden Nugget Games of the Year Openers:
Nebraska +2.5 at Wisconsin
Michigan State at Nebraska -7.5
Northwestern at Nebraska -12
Nebraska -1 at Penn State
Nebraska -1 at Michigan State
Schedule analysis: The Cornhuskers scored big by playing the top three Legends Division contenders at home (Iowa, Michigan State and Northwestern). They did however draw the top three contenders in the Leaders Division (at Wisconsin, at Penn State, vs. Ohio State). After losing four straight to USC and
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Results of NFL teams after 3-13 or worse seasons since 2002
08.18.2011 11:02 AM
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Article about the
Carolina
Panthers and their
potential to improve
this season. The Panthers fell from 12-4 in 2008 to 8-8 in 2009 to 2-14 last year. In looking at past teams who endured a similar path (good, to mediocre, to really bad), there are some good examples of upward trajectory after hitting rock bottom. If you are a believer, the trajectory for Carolina doesn't been to be much with the team currently lined at 4.5 wins.
Below is a chart of teams with 3-13 records or worse and how they fared the following season dating back to 2002.
NFL Results After Seasons of 3-13 or worse since 2002
Year
Team
Record
Following Season
Difference
ATS Following Season
2010
Carolina
2-14
???
???
???
2009
St. Louis
1-15
7-9
+6
10-6
2009
Tampa Bay
3-13
10-6
+7
10-5-1
2009
Detroit
2-14
6-10
+4
12-4
2008
Detroit
0-16
2-14
+2
4-10-2
2008
St. Louis
2-14
1-15
-1
7-9
2008
Kansas City
2-14
4-12
+2
7-9
2007
Miami
1-15
11-5
+10
8-8
2007
St. Louis
3-13
2-14
-1
6-10
2006
Oakland
2-14
4-12
+2
6-10
2006
Detroit
3-13
7-9
+4
6-9-1
2005
New Orleans
3-13
10-6
+7
10-6
2005
Houston
2-14
6-10
+4
7-9
2004
San Francisco
2-14
4-12
+2
8-8
2002
Cincinnati
2-14
8-8
+6
9-6-1
2002
Detroit
3-13
5-11
+2
9-7
Results
Avg. 5.8-10.2
Avg. +3.7 wins
119-116-5
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Kansas wants to feature run-heavy offense
08.18.2011 08:10 AM
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Kansas
offensive coordinator Chuck Long said that the Jayhawks are going with a more
run-based offense
this season. Long claimed that last year KU went with a 40-60 run/pass ratio and that number could be flip-flopped in 2011. Long may want to employ a fact checker as last season Kansas actually finished with a 57-43 run/pass ratio. Regardless, it is clear that Kansas doesn't feel all too confident in its quarterbacks nor the offensive line (37 sacks allowed). We would expect a conservative approach on offense in attempt to shorten their games, especially when outclassed in Big XII play. If the defense can improve (8 returning starters), the Jayhawks have all of the makings of being a strong "under" team.
“Last year it was more 60-40 pass-to-run,” offensive coordinator Chuck Long said.
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NFLX Betting Notes: New Orleans Saints' injury list lengthens
08.18.2011 06:22 AM
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New Orleans -1.5 at Houston O/U 36.5
The
New Orleans
Saints are a little banged up with
16 of their 90 players
forced to sit out Wednesday's practice. The Saints opened as a 2.5-point road underdog at
Houston
for Saturday but heavy money has them now a 1.5-point favorite.
"It's a bigger list than I'd like right now," Payton said. "It seems like in the last two or three days, it's gotten bigger."
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