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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet college basketball in February

02.18.2013     07:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I’ve done my last two columns breaking down aggregate season long stats, examining the very best and very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball. Next week, the focus shifts towards conference tournaments and the Big Dance. In between? This little doozy about how to make money betting NCAA hoops in the always tricky month of February!

The key to late regular season college hoops for me has always been about morphing teams – squads whose long term numbers don’t match their short term momentum – either positive or negative. There are quite literally dozens of such teams right now, all of whom are at least moderately mispriced in the betting markets these days, offering savvy bettors solid opportunities on a near daily basis.

Who are some of these teams? Why are they morphing now? Read on to find out!

I’ll start with a handful of teams moving in the right direction – from mediocre to good, or from good to great. Georgetown certainly stands out on this list; a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their last seven contests. The Hoyas were never a bad team, but a 2-3 SU start in Read more

Tags: College Basketball Georgetown Hoyas Saint Louis Billikens Air Force Falcons UNLV Running Rebels Wyoming Cowboys Creighton Blue Jays Michigan Wolverines Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting Recap: Bizarre Duke Loss, Plus Other Night Delights

02.17.2013     08:23 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s not so much that Duke losing on the road to Maryland is bizarre. They almost lost on the road at Boston College last week…and BC is worse than Maryland. It was sure a bizarre boxscore though…

*We’ve seen a few games in recent weeks where a team posted a strong two-point shooting mark on offense, but committed a lot of turnovers. If they didn’t give the ball away…they scored. Or, the defense went for the steal…if it didn’t work…deuce. Saturday night Maryland shot not 50%, or 60%, or 65%....Maryland shot 72% on two-pointers…but turned the ball over TWENTY SIX times! That’s 72% on deuces, with 26 turnovers. EXTREME!

*Duke has had some problems on the boards in recent years when they’re playing top competition. Maryland isn’t really top competition. Just a bubble team. But, Maryland outrebounded Duke by a stunning 38-17.

*At home, Duke often gets the benefit of the doubt on free Read more

Tags: College Basketball Duke Blue Devils Maryland Terrapins Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Handicapping: Red Hot Georgetown First to 9 Wins in Big East Play

02.16.2013     06:34 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because of their head start on the weekend, the Georgetown Hoyas find themselves alone in first place of the Big East after Friday’s 62-55 win at Cincinnati.

Georgetown is 9-3 in league action, temporarily ahead of Syracuse and Marquette at 8-3. Louisville, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh are tied for fourth with 8-4 records.

It may be time to consider Georgetown more seriously for a #3 seed or better in the Big Dance. We’ve spent a lot of time recently documenting big name teams who aren’t exactly on fire. Georgetown, sitting with a #4 spot in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology assessment, is one of the few teams that’s on a big roll.

*Georgetown is 9-1 straight up its last 10 games.

*Georgetown is also 9-1 against market expectations their last 10 games, including their 11-point cover tonight as a 4-point underdog. There aren't too many teams on 90% cover runs at the moment!

*Georgetown has recent win/covers over Notre Dame, Read more

Tags: College Basketball Georgetown Hoyas Cincinnati Bearcats Stat Intelligence

NBA Gambling: San Antonio's Big Three expected to play vs. Cleveland

02.13.2013     11:51 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
San Antonio -7 at Cleveland O/U 207

Despite this being their last game before the All-Star break – a lot of teams choose to rest injured players – reports indicate that the San Antonio Spurs will be at full strength tonight with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker all upgraded to probable. The trio did not play in Monday's 103-89 win at Chicago. Oddsmakers are often left playing the guessing game when it comes to who the Spurs will play. They opened -2.5 for tonight's game against the Cavs with the line now up to -7.

Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Cleveland Cavaliers

NBA Handicapping: Breaking down the Eastern Conference

02.12.2013     07:31 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

So many weird things have been happening in the NBA’s Eastern Conference in recent days, that I got to wondering what the standings looked like since the turn of the year. That time period would encapsulate the Knicks cooling off a bit…Washington heating up…and all sorts of various storylines.

Let’s take a look...

NBA EAST IN 2013 (only counting games since New Year's)

1…Miami 13-6

2…Brooklyn 14-7

3…Chicago, Indiana, Boston 13-8

Miami’s still at three-quarter speed…yet has the best record in the conference in this short sample. Brooklyn hasn’t played as well as that record would suggest the past several days…but they did win tonight in Indiana to take over the theoretical #2 seed in this time frame. The next three teams have had multiple nights where had kicked things into playoff gear. Ironically, all three lost tonight! Chicago, Indiana, and Boston were 13-7 in 2013 until falling Read more

Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Betting Update: Minnesota's wheels come off again

02.11.2013     02:35 PM     Printer Friendly

A little over two weeks ago the Minnesota Golden Gophers they were in the midst of a three-game losing streak with rumblings that the program was in disarray. The following game they had a decent effort at Wisconsin (lost by one, covered +3.5) and then manhandled Nebraska at home by 19. Up next, Minny barely slipped past Iowa, 62-59, as 10-point home favorites – a win that was a bit troubling considering the Golden Gophers shot better from the field, attempted and made more free throws, were +6 on the glass, and somehow didn't sniff a pointspread cover. Three days later in East Lansing, Minnesota had a 20-18 halftime lead but lost by 11 catching +3.5. But out of all of those performances, it was Sunday's showing vs. Illinois that was the worst. In an absolutely prime spot – off a loss, at home, facing a mediocre Illini squad that just beat the No. 1 team in the country in miracle fashion – Minnesota was simply awful. This is an offense that through its first five Big Ten games averaged 79 ppg and against the 11th-ranked Read more

Tags: College Basketball Minnesota Golden Gophers

NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers

02.11.2013     11:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Brooklyn at Indiana -8.5 O/U 183
Recommendation: Indiana

Brooklyn is falling apart before our eyes.  They’ve lost six of nine, snapping any momentum they had gained from their strong run when PJ Carlesimo initially took over for Avery Johnson as the head coach.  The worst part of the Nets recent decline has been their complete lack of effort once they fall behind.  Their six losses during this skid have come by 25, 15, 9, 20, 13 and 24 points.  In other words, when things start to go south for this team, they tend to go south in a hurry!

Nets shooting guard Joe Johnson doesn’t sound too convinced that his team will be able to turn it around on the second night of back-to-backs on the road against an elite level foe.  Shooting guard Joe Johnson: “I don't know what it is, but you know, it just seems when a team makes a run on us, man, it just takes the air out of us. It shouldn't be that way. We should be able to respond, but it hasn't Read more

Tags: NBA Brooklyn Nets Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Basketball's worst against the spread

02.11.2013     07:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I took a look at the best pointspread teams in all of college basketball, with the goal of assessing which teams were most likely to continue their ATS success down the stretch. This week, I’m taking the opposite approach; examining the very worst pointspread teams in college basketball. Why are they so bad against the spread? Will they continue to be overvalued as February rolls into March? Let’s find out!

The single worst pointspread team in all of college basketball this year has been IUPUI (Indiana-Purdue, Indianapolis); the type of team that only wiseguys bet on or against on a regular basis. At 5-17 ATS, no team in all of college basketball has suffered more pointspread defeats than the Jaguars this year. The Jaguars play in the Summit League, on the added board in college hoops – exclusive territory for sharps.

IUPUI has virtually no homecourt edge, covering just a single pointspread at home all year. They’ve been besieged with injuries and attrition; Read more

Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers

NBA Handicapping: Knicks and Nets outclassed by Western Conference contenders

02.11.2013     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You don’t want to read too much into a generic February Sunday of NBA basketball. But it was a discouraging day for fans of the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets, who were both outclassed significantly by Western Conference contenders. 

*New York (-3.5) lost to the LA Clippers 102-88 (missing expectations by 17.5 points)

*Brooklyn (+2) lost to San Antonio 111-86 (missing expectations by 23 points)

It was already bad enough for the Nets that they were home underdogs to the Spurs on a night when both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were out with injuries. Brooklyn got annihilated by the shorthanded Spurs! San Antonio won the second half 60-29.

I’m not going to run the full boxes. A few quick keys from Gotham's day-night doubleheader…

LA Clippers 102, New York 88

2-Point Percentage: Clippers 60%, New York 51%

3-Point Shooting: Clippers 10/28, New York 7/23

Rebounds: Clippers 43, New York Read more

Tags: NBA New York Knicks Brooklyn Nets San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Clippers Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Gambling: Recapping Notre Dame's miracle win vs. Louisville and others

02.10.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It was possibly the worst quintuple overtime thriller I’ve ever watched! Well, a truly ugly first 35 minutes…followed by a sluggish but entertainingly dramatic 30 additional minutes. Many of you watched too, so you know what I’m talking about. The last 35 minutes of on-the-clock action was very compelling basketball even if the game was far from a piece of artwork. If you missed it:

*We had your typical 50-something to 40-something type grinder brewing most of the night. Louisville led 49-45 with 2:30 left in regulation.

*Louisville pulled out to what seemed like a safe lead with 90 seconds left…setting up the standard sequence of them shooting free throws while Notre Dame tried to make desperation treys. Louisville led 53-45 with 1:27 to go.

*Notre Dame made ONE…then TWO…then THREE very long range very forced desperation treys to force a late tie. Those bombs fell with 44-36-28 seconds left respectively.

*Louisville didn’t have Read more

Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish Louisville Cardinals Stat Intelligence


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