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May

28

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MLB Handicapping: Do Some MLB Starting Pitchers Lack a Sense of Urgency?

06.13.2013     08:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I started thinking more about that question yesterday after reading an article called “Lessons from the Linescore” by former pitcher Pat Jordan. Rob Neyer on twitter provided a link to the article. It’s a long read…so pick a time when you have several minutes to read through it. The quote that jumped out at me…from the perspective of trying to handicap 5-inning baseball props…was this reference to Justin Verlander:

“Two years ago, I interviewed Verlander for a story and he told me he always paced himself in the first few innings so he could summon his 98 miles per hour fastball in the seventh and eighth innings. We argued about that. I told him that sooner or later opposing batters would get wise and attack his 91-92-mph fastball in the first few innings to try to knock him out of the box early before he could call on the Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Can West Virginia's Travel Woes Be Exploited in Golden Nugget GOY's?

06.12.2013     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I haven’t even begun to prepare for college football yet, beyond that effort to reverse-engineer Power Ratings from the early “Game of the Year” lines that were posted at the Golden Nugget a few days ago. I was trying to remember if there were any notable tendencies from last year that might be vulnerable to early betting against those numbers…and the midseason collapse of West Virginia in Big 12 play came to mind.

West Virginia 2012:

*Had no idea what to do in the wind at Texas Tech

*Wore down physically from their new league’s aggressive up-tempo play

*Was exposed as weak defensively and on special teams tackling

*Only beat the league’s two worst teams (Kansas and Iowa State) in their last 8 games (counting bowl)

West Virginia 2013:

*Has to rebuild its offense almost entirely

*Can’t be optimistic about defense because offensive-minded coaches Read more



Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins

06.11.2013     11:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Milwaukee (Peralta) -110 at Miami (Turner) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Milwaukee


This game comes down to one single question – how much do you value starting pitching?  There’s no doubt that Miami has a real starting pitching edge in this game, sending impressive rookie phenom Jacob Turner to the mound to face off against the very hittable Wily Peralta for the Brewers.  But that’s the only edge the Marlins have.  In a pick ‘em priced game, I don’t think that’s enough.  Here’s why:

Prior to the season, Miami was lined as a 63 or 64 win team, expected to approach the 100 loss mark.  They’ve lived up to those expectations.  At 18-45, the Marlins have the worst record in the major leagues.  Only the Astros have a weaker home record than Miami’s 10-21 mark.

Milwaukee was lined as a .500 level ball club coming into the campaign (80 or 81 wins).  Thanks to a disastrous month of May Read more



Tags: MLB Miwaukee Brewers Miami Marlins Teddy Covers




College Football Gambling: Estimated Major Conference Power Ratings

06.11.2013     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Golden Nugget posted its “Game of the Year” early pointspreads a few days ago. I thought it would be fun to take those numbers and try to “reverse engineer” what their Power Ratings must have been for all the teams from major conferences.

It wasn’t quite as easy as I had hoped:

*They don’t seem to be using a universal “3” for home field advantage

*They probably shaded some lines in anticipation of betting action

Also, I couldn’t find any games involving Duke of the ACC, or SMU…a new team in the Big East (or American Athletic Conference as it will be known). So, I can’t get every “big six” team in here.

For the most part, these hold up. If you just use three points for home field, you’ll typically be within a point of where the Golden Nugget lined their games. And, we’re so far in advance of the season anyway that any realistic Power Ratings are just a broad Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling: A bettor's guide to the American Athletic Conference

06.10.2013     01:52 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Raise your hand if you are up to speed on the details of the newly formed American Athletic Conference. No? Either were we until about five minutes ago, a couple of Google searches, and of course our good pal Wikipedia. For the upcoming 2013 college football season, the AAC will include 10 teams: Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, SMU, USF, Temple, and UFC. To add to the confusion, in 2014, Louisville will head to the ACC, Rutgers is bailing to the Big Ten, and East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa will join the AAC.

This year, each team will play eight conference games. Below are the games that will not be played due to the eight-game slate.

Cincinnati/UCF
UConn/Houston
Louisville/SMU
Memphis/Rutgers
Temple/USF

Like the Big East, all ten teams will have three bye weeks (Temple and Houston technically have two with Dec. 7 and "open date”). It will be interesting to see how the former C-USA schools handle the time off. Houston, SMU, and UCF had only one bye week last year. Also note that for this season, the AAC Read more



Tags: College Football




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Golden Nugget College Football Games of the Year

06.10.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
As spring turns into summer here in Las Vegas and the NBA Playoffs wind down, the upcoming football season begins to attract more and more betting attention.  Last month we saw NFL season win totals hit the betting boards around town, drawing a significant initial flurry of heavy wiseguy money.   And this past Friday, we saw another clear sign that football is just around the corner, as the Golden Nugget released their lines on 250 College Football Games of the Year.

The Nugget has earned a reputation as the top place to bet on sports in downtown Las Vegas, but it’s not generally a hotbed of wiseguy betting activity.  That changes dramatically when they release their College Football GOY lines, as they’ve done for each of the last seven years.  The Golden Nugget sportsbook takes center stage as a destination location; the first place in Vegas to post college football game pointspreads. 

The Nugget made some changes this year in an effort to please and appease the Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Know your conference realignment

06.10.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We have a ways to go until the college football season but bettors would be wise to familiarize themselves with all of the conference realignments. Here is a brief overview of the changes...

Sun Belt Defectors - Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, and UT-San Antonio are all headed to the C-USA.

Sun Belt Newbies - Georgia State and Texas State will join the Sun Belt.

Introducing The American - Essentially a combination of the Big East and C-USA. East Carolina, Tulane, Tulsa and Navy will join next year. This year's league will feature 10 teams: Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, SMU, USF, Temple, and UCF.

Indie - Idaho and New Mexico State will play as Independents.

Mountain West Newbies - San Jose State and Utah State left the now defunct WAC for the Mountain West.

Big East to ACC - Syracuse and Pitt left the now defunct Big East for the ACC.

Transition - Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, and Old Dominion will being their Read more



Tags: College Football




NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins

06.07.2013     03:02 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh +100 at Boston O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh


Pittsburgh faces a near impossible hole trailing Boston 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, I’m willing to make a smaller wager and recommendation on the Penguins tonight if for no other reason than pride. The Penguins have a roster filled with intense competitors including Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla and Brenden Morrow and I highly doubt any of them want their amazing season to end in a sweep considering the Penguins were the best team in the Eastern Conference throughout the regular season. There is no doubt it was a crushing, gut-wrenching double overtime loss for Pittsburgh in Game 3. The Penguins outshot the Bruins 54-40 but couldn’t find a way to put enough pucks behind Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask who was phenomenal in the win. Pittsburgh could be completely demoralized but I think there is enough veteran players and leadership to keep them in a positive frame of mind for Game 4.

Pittsburgh’s power play simply MUST get going after being held scoreless in the first three games. The reason Pittsburgh might finally break out of their Read more



Tags: NHL Pittsburgh Penguins Boston Bruins Ian Cameron




NBA Finals Handicapping: Statline Data for San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat

06.06.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It’s been awhile since we’ve looked at these. As was the format during March Madness, we look at regular season performance in two-point defense, rebounding differential, turnover differential, made treys per game, and pace ranking in the league. These numbers haven’t been adjusted from the playoffs. We’re looking to get a sense of skill sets.

Spurs.: 47% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #6 pace

Heat: 47% two-point defense, -1.5 rebounding, +1.7 TO’S, 8.7 treys, #23 pace

*Most playoff teams were at 47% on deuces allowed, so we’re talking about playoff caliber teams who aren’t necessarily terrifying inside the arc. Indiana was the best of the playoff teams at 44%. Oklahoma City was best in the West at 45%.

*You won’t be surprised to see Miami trailing in the rebound category. They tend to blow off offensive rebounds to get everybody back to defend. We saw in the series finale vs. Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapping: Texas' Ogando returns from DL

06.05.2013     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Ogando) at Boston (Lackey) -120 O/U 9

Texas' Alexi Ogando returns to the rotation after a stint on the DL due to biceps tendinitis. In his last start back on May 15, Ogando's fastball velocity was way down. It would probably be best to take a wait-and-see approach with Ogando though we would expect to see an uptick in velocity after the layoff. Due to all of their injuries, the Rangers have been forced to get creative with their rotation – Harrison, Feliz, and Lewis out; Grimm, Tepesch, and Wolf in. Despite allowing 17 runs yesterday, Texas' pitching has been nothing short of stellar with an AL-leading 3.58 ERA.


"I expect him to pick up where he left off, probably with a bigger smile on his face," Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux said. "He was feeling pretty good about himself, but he had to battle

Read more



Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Boston Red Sox



84

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May

27


 
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