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31

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NFL Handicapping: Notes on Power Ratings for the 2013 Season

07.05.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As we get closer to the NFL season, you’re going to see a lot of prediction articles in the mainstream and stathead media. The fact that Las Vegas now actively markets and publicizes their Regular Season Win Total propositions has certainly helped. Sportwriters and fans loved making predictions anyway. Now there’s an outline of expectations that people can refer too.

The stathead articles in this area all basically say the same thing over and over again. This has been true for years. I used to ghostwrite them myself…until it got boring just repeating the same things over and over again. The general themes are:
 
*Assume that turnover extremes will regress toward the mean

*Assume that records in close games will regress toward the mean

*Be skeptical of teams with bad point differentials who had decent records

*Be sure you know who played easy schedules and who played hard schedules

*Remember who had key injuries, and pencil in good Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: C-USA Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.03.2013     11:47 AM     Printer Friendly
Below are the C-USA's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. A lot of change this season as Houston, SMU, Memphis and UCF depart and a host of lower-tier programs step in. Oddsmakers feel that Marshall and Rice – two average at best C-USA teams over the last few years – will benefit the most from the new format. The Thundering Herd won five games last season but are lined at 9.5 wins. Rice won six games during the regular season but is priced at 7.5 with heavy juice towards the over. Tulsa and East Carolina are projected to be similar to that of last year while a majority of the league is in that no-one-has-a-clue slot of 5.5 wins. Plenty of wins to be had however with Florida Atlanta, Florida International, and UT-San Antonio lined right around three wins. Overall, seven of the 14 teams feature first or second-year head coaches.

2013 C-USA Regular Season Over/Under Wins
C-USA East
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
UAB
3
5.5un-180
East Carolina
8
7.5
Florida Atlantic
3
3.5un-195
FIU
3
2.5ov-140
Marshall
5
9.5un-165
Middle Tennessee
8
5.5ov-150
Southern Miss
0
5.5ov-130
C-USA West
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Louisiana Tech
9
5.5ov-180
North Texas
4
5.5un-230
Rice
6
7.5ov-190
UTEP
3
4.5un-160
UTSA
8
2.5un-165
Tulane
2
5.5un-140
Tulsa
9
8.5ov-185




Tags: College Football Marshall Thundering Herd Rice Owls C-USA




College Football Betting: Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.02.2013     01:25 PM     Printer Friendly
Below are the Big Ten's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. It's the last season of the Leaders and Legends divisions with Rutgers and Maryland joining next season to form the more logically named East and West. As for 2013, it’s Ohio State and everyone else according to oddsmakers and the betting markets. The Buckeyes are the second choice behind Alabama for the BCS crown at 8-1, -110 to win the Big Ten Championship, and a huge -465 favorite to win the Leaders Division. The schedule sets up well with six of OSU's first eight in Columbus and winnable road games at Cal, Northwestern, Purdue and Indiana. They do however travel to Ann Arbor to close out the regular season. As for the rest of the Big Ten, Michigan State and Wisconsin are slated to improve after 6- and 7-win seasons, respectively. The Legends Division looks fairly balanced with the Spartans, Nebraska, Michigan, and Northwestern all lined at 8.5-9.5 wins. The Wolverines are the slight betting favorite at +230.

2013 Big Ten Regular Season Over/Under Wins
Big Ten Leaders
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Ohio State
12
11.5un-195
Penn State
8
8.5un-195
Wisconsin
7
8.5ov-210
Purdue
6
5.5un-245
Indiana
4
5.5ov-210
Illinois
2
3.5ov-160
Big Ten Legends
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Nebraska
10
9.5ov-130
Michigan
8
9.5un-135
Northwestern
9
8.5un-140
Michigan State
6
8.5
Minnesota
6
5.5
Iowa
4
5.5un-140





Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten




College Football Betting: SEC Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.02.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
Below are the SEC's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. Oddsmakers are predicting another close three-team race in the SEC with Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina all lined at 9.5 wins. Most sportsbooks have the Bulldogs priced as slight division favorites. Alabama is once again expected to do great things – bettors are essentially wagering on whether or not the Crimson Tide will lose a regular season game. Improvement is expected from Arkansas and Auburn who suffered through disappointing 2012 campaigns. Oddsmakers like what Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze did in his first season (7-6 overall) as the Rebels are slated to be in the 8-9 win range.

2013 SEC Regular Season Over/Under Wins
SEC East
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Florida
11
9.5un-320
Georgia
11
9.5ov-195
South Carolina
10
9.5ov-210
Vanderbilt
8
7.5un-140
Missouri
5
5.5ov-260
Tennessee
5
5.5ov-210
Kentucky
2
3.5ov-190
SEC West
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Alabama
11
11.5un-230
Texas A&M
10
9.5ov-180
Louisiana State
10
9.5un-175
Mississippi State
8
5.5un-180
Mississippi
6
8.5un-170
Arkansas
4
5.5ov-140
Auburn
3
6.5un-180




Tags: College Football Georgia Bulldogs Florida Gators South Carolina Gamecocks Alabama Crimson Tide Ole Miss Rebels SEC




College Football Betting: Big XII Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.01.2013     12:17 PM     Printer Friendly
Below are the Big XII's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. Based on the numbers it looks to be a competitive league at the top with Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma, and TCU all projected to be in the 9-10 win range. A number of teams were forced to reload this offseason. West Virginia returns only three starters on offense. Kansas State welcomes back only one defensive starter after last year's 11-win campaign. And expectations are very high for Texas who returns as many as 19 starters.

2013 Big XII Regular Season Over/Under Wins
Big XII
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Kansas State
11
8.5un-195
Oklahoma
10
9.5un-210
Texas
8
9.5ov-170
Oklahoma State
7
10.5un-230
Baylor
7
7.5ov-175
Texas Tech
7
7.5un-230
Texas Christian
7
9.5un-260
West Virginia
7
5.5ov-210
Iowa State
6
5.5un-245
Kansas
1
3.5




Tags: College Football Oklahoma State Cowboys Texas Longhorns Oklahoma Sooners Kansas State Wildcats Big XII




College Football Betting: ACC Regular Season Over/Under Wins

07.01.2013     11:58 AM     Printer Friendly
Below are the ACC's Regular Season Over/Under Wins courtesy of 5Dimes. Note that Syracuse and Pittsburgh join the league this year. Florida State and Clemson are both projected to reach double-digit wins. Virginia Tech is off its worst season (7-6 overall) under Frank Beamer since 1992. The betting markets are expecting the Hokies to bounce back strong. They open the season with Alabama but avoid both Clemson and Florida State and play host to Coastal contender North Carolina. Note much respect given to newbies Syracuse and Pitt who are both lined below six wins.

2013 ACC Regular Season Over/Under Wins
Atlantic
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
Florida State
10
10.5un-150
Clemson
10
10.5un-215
North Carolina State
7
6.5ov-185
Wake Forest
5
5.5ov-170
Maryland
4
6.5ov-140
Boston College
2
4.5ov-140
Syracuse
7
4.5
Coastal
2012 RS Wins
2013 O/U
North Carolina
8
9.5un-230
Miami
7
9.5un-190
Georgia Tech
6
8.5
Virginia Tech
6
9.5un-140
Duke
6
5.5un-160
Virginia
4
4.5un-140
Pittsburgh
6
5.5un-130




Tags: College Football Florida State Seminoles Clemson Tigers Virginia Tech Hokies ACC




College Football Betting: Oddsmakers price Cal Golden Bears as PAC-12 bottom feeder

06.27.2013     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Remember when oddsmakers couldn't make Washington State's lines high enough during the Paul Wulff era? Well according to the early betting markets, the Cal Golden Bears are projected to be just as bad as some of those absolutely awful Wazzu teams. You know things are dismal when you're a Week 1 10.5-point home underdog to Northwestern (last time we checked, Cal did take some money in that contest). Making matters worse for first-year head coach Sonny Dykes is an absolutely brutal schedule with non-conference games against Northwestern and Ohio State as well as five PAC-12 road games (4 at home). 5Dimes has Cal lined at 4.5un-160 wins.

Golden Nugget GOY Openers
Northwestern (-10.5) @ California
Ohio St (-21) @ California
California @ Oregon (-34)
California @ UCLA (-16.5)
Oregon St (-13) @ California
California @ Washington (-17)
Arizona (-11) @ California
USC (-17) @ California
California @ Stanford (-22)



Tags: College Football California Golden Bears PAC-12




MLB Gambling Notes: Cincinnati Reds Still Struggling vs. Quality Teams

06.27.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Cincinnati Reds just got swept in a quick two-game series in Oakland, losing by a combined score of 12-3. That continues a trend we’ve been discussing on and off this season. The Reds have played very poorly (for a contender) against teams at .500 or better, while absolutely annihilating teams who are below .500.

Let’s run the numbers for the Reds and the other NL Central contenders for some context…

Records vs. .500 or Better

Pittsburgh 18-14

St. Louis 18-15

Cincinnati 15-26

Pittsburgh and St. Louis at least belong in the SuperLeague, even if they’re not dominating within the “best vs. best” matchups. The Reds are showing very poorly in comparison.

Records vs. Under .500

Cincinnati 30-8

St. Louis 30-15

Pittsburgh 30-16

This is why the Reds are in the divisional (and Wildcard) race. They’re doing a great job of taking Read more


Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings (w/ Mid-Majors)

06.26.2013     10:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I know I promised some baseball for the late Tuesday report. Ended up spending the evening logging college football stuff out of Athlon. Turned into quite the filibuster! So it's midnight ET, and it's probably better to just tweak a prior football report. I re-checked the "Game of the Year" lines from the Golden Nugget so I could add in the mid-majors that were missed in the earlier estimate of market power ratings.

Mid-Majors (the handful mentioned in GOY lines)

Boise State 68 (Mountain West)

Tulsa 63 (Conference USA)

San Diego State 60 (Mountain West)

Navy 55 (Independent)

Nevada 53 (Mountain West)

Colorado State 50 (Mountain West)

Southern Miss 49 (Conference USA)

UNLV 48 (Mountain West)

Central Michigan 47 (MAC)

Army 46 (Independent)

We have a few new readers and twitter followers (@jefffogle) Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Sports Betting Podcast 6-26-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno, Ian Cameron, and Alf Musketa

06.26.2013     10:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Rob Veno, Ian Cameron, and Alf Musketa. Rob talked about changes to the Mountain West Conference, Ian broke down every game for Week 1 of the CFL, and Alf discussed PGA and Wimbledon.

Today's segments
Full Show

Rob Veno - College Football Mountain West

Ian Cameron - Canadian Football League Week 1

Alf Musketa - PGA and Tennis

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: College Football CFL PGA Rob Veno Ian Cameron Alf Musketa



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 31, 2014 07:28 PM.