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MLB Handicapping: Umpires, pitchers and racial biases
07.05.2011 06:53 AM
Printer Friendly
Back in April, we posted a blog about
umpires and their favoritism towards certain pitches
. The theme was Mike DiMuro’s “performances” behind the plate for a couple of Roy Halladay's starts – unreal even by Doc’s standards (last two starts: 18 IP, 3 hits, 0 ERs, 17 Ks, 2 BBs). We also touched on the Cuban ump/Cuban pitcher combo and the success some of the more prominent Cuban born pitchers had with Angel Hernandez calling balls and strikes. Freakonomics recently took our theory to whole new level by publishing a 27-page study on whether or not there is racial bias with umps and pitchers. It is pretty interesting (and exhausting). Below is a brief synopsis. Here is the
web link
. Here is the
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MLB Handicapping: Detroit's Rick Porcello still trying to figure it out
07.03.2011 06:53 AM
Printer Friendly
UPDATE
San Francisco (Vogelsong) at Detroit (Porcello) -130 O/U 8.5
1, 3, 6, 5, 7...that has been the progression of Detroit starter Rick Porcello's last five starts. Note that he's fanned only two batters in the last three outings. Prior to his last start against the Mets, Porcello claimed to have found a flaw in his mechanics and the correction would help increase his velocity. Now, the young righty says he needs to
show more variety
in his pitch selection.
"I feel good about the slider, change, those haven’t been hit hard," the third-year pitcher said. "Maybe it’s time to start using them more."
"When hitters are comfortable up there and feel confident, I think maybe we need to mix it up a
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Detroit Tigers
Rick Porcello
San Francisco Giants
Ryan Vogelsong
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MLB Handicapping: Citi Field could impact Yankees' long ball offense
07.01.2011 12:25 PM
Printer Friendly
Fantastic article from the
Wall Street Journal
analyzing the Subway Series and the difference between Citi Field and Yankee Stadium in terms of home runs. The study (see chart below) took seven Yankees and determined that of the 242 home runs the group hit in new Yankees Stadium, only 120 would have left the yard at Citi Field. Something to consider for this weekend’s three-game set with much of the Yankees' offense generated via the long ball.
"If you try to hit home runs at Citi Field, a lot of them are going to be flyouts and your average is going to go down, and you're not going to be that effective," outfielder Scott Hairston said. "You really have to battle yourself to stay within yourself and hit line
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MLB Betting Notes: Improved health could spark Oakland A's
06.30.2011 02:46 PM
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Oakland could perhaps
get a boost over the next few weeks
with Brandon McCarthy and Tyson Ross finishing up their respective rehab stints following trips to the DL. Rich Harden will also make his season debut tomorrow against Arizona (may or may not be a good thing). Despite all of the injuries, the A's pitching staff has held it together with a 3.35 ERA in June. The offense is still atrocious but gets Josh Willingham back on Sunday. Willingham is one of the few A's with decent power numbers (10 HRs, 42 RBI). Oakland can be a tough team to back especially with their sometimes inflated prices but with 17 of their next 25 games at home the potential to put together a nice run is present.
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Oakland A's
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles
06.30.2011 07:56 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
St. Louis (Garcia) at Baltimore (Matusz)
Recommendation: Under 5 1st five innings
Jaime Garcia's numbers suggest he can't succeed on the road. I don't dispute that he's clearly better at home (1.74 ERA in 22 career starts) but he's more than capable of performing well on the highway. When I look at Garcia's game log, I notice that he's allowed more than three earned runs in the just one start this season – home or away. If you eliminate his blow up at Colorado, Garcia's numbers on the road are more than respectable (3.59 ERA). Baltimore's Brian Matusz has struggled since coming off the DL. Despite rumblings that he should be demoted, Buck Showalter said he'll continue to send the promising lefty to the hill. Matusz' velocity has dipped since last season but I noticed it was slightly up his last two outings (10 Ks in 10 IP). I'm going to be proactive here and call for a solid showing from Matusz tonight and key in on the under first five innings.
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St. Louis Cardinals
Jaime Garcia
Baltimore Orioles
Brian Matusz
Andrew Lange
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MLB Betting Alert: Toronto's Cecil returns tonight against Pittsburgh
06.30.2011 06:14 AM
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Pittsburgh (Karstens) at Toronto (Cecil) -140 O/U 8.5
Toronto's
Brett Cecil was called up from Triple-A
and will start tonight against Pittsburgh. After getting smacked around early in the season (21 IP, 16 ERs) in large part due to a massive drop in velocity (see
Fan Graphs
), Cecil reportedly sorted things out in the minors. He is insistent that throughout the whole ordeal, his arm was fine but rather "overworked" some. The betting market (see below line history) seems to think he'll be ready to go tonight against the Pirates.
“I think the arm was just overworked a little bit,” said Cecil who will get the opportunity to show that all is now well on Thursday when he gets the start in the series finale against the Pirates at Rogers
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MLB
Toronto Blue Jays
Brett Cecil
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeff Karstens
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins
06.28.2011 08:31 AM
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Los Angeles (Lilly) at Minnesota (Duensing)
Recommendation: Under 4 1st five innings
Looking to avoid two of the worst bullpens in baseball and play under the key number of four for tonight’s first five innings between the Dodgers and Twins. Minnesota’s Brian Duensing is a fringe arm but one who is capable of handling weak offenses in pitcher friendly ballparks. In his last two outings against San Francisco and San Diego, Duensing racked up back-to-back quality starts. Duensing's recent success was as a result of what he claimed to be an adjustment with is mechanics. After allowing 15 runs last night, expect him to step up for his team with another quality outing. Prior to his last two starts, Ted Lilly has been solid, averaging six innings and two earned runs per appearance dating back to early May. Off two dismal showings (10 IP, 11 ERs) he’s primed to handle a Minnesota offense that has once against hit this skids with eight runs in its last six games.
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MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Ted Lilly
Minnesota Twins
Brian Duensing
Andrew Lange
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MLB Betting Notes: Pythagorean W-L shows American League still top dog
06.27.2011 02:31 PM
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Found this interesting nugget about the theory that the National League has closed the gap with the American League when it comes to Interleague play. Prior to tonight's games, the AL holds a relatively small 88-80, .524 advantage. From 2007-10, the AL was much more dominant at 593-459, .563. But as
Hardball Times
pointed out, when looked at from a different statistical perspective the gap appears to be just as wide. Based on Pythagorean W-L record – a reliable predictor of future performance – the AL's win pct. is actually .561 which is nearly identical to the previous four seasons.
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MLB Handicapping: Interleague Betting Results as of 6/27/11
06.27.2011 11:39 AM
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The tide turned somewhat last week with the National League going 46-38 +10.7 in Interleague play dating back to last Monday. The American League meanwhile lost just under -14 units of profit. Overall, home teams in Interleague play are 99-69 +15 units while road teams are 69-99 -22.65 units.
MLB Interleague Betting Results as of 6/27
Year
League
Home
Units
Away
Units
2011
American
47-28
9.55
41-52
-10.25
2010
American
77-52
7.15
58-70
-5.2
2009
American
73-56
-5.85
69-60
15.1
2008
American
80-47
13.45
70-59
16.35
2007
American
74-54
0.55
67-61
8.55
Results
366-237
24.85
305-302
24.55
Year
League
Home
Units
Away
Units
2011
National
52-41
5.45
28-47
-12.4
2010
National
70-58
-0.65
52-77
-13.6
2009
National
60-69
-21.1
56-73
-1
2008
National
59-70
-22.1
47-80
-19.6
2007
National
61-67
-15.2
54-74
-7.3
Results
302-305
-53.6
237-366
-53.9
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MLB Betting Alert: Wind blowing out at Wrigley for Cubs-Rockies day game
06.27.2011 07:46 AM
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Colorado (Chacin) -125 at Chicago (Garza) O/U 11.5
The wind will be blowing out to left-center 12-14 mph for this afternoon's Chicago-Colorado matchup at Wrigley Field. Oddsmakers posted an opener of 11.5 on the total with slight movement (11.5ov-125) towards the over. Matt Garza as been a fly ball pitcher for much of his career but shows an even ratio (114 GB, 107 FB) this season. He's also allowed only five home runs in 76.2 innings. Jhoulys Chacin has given up 11 long balls in just under 100 innings and has a strong 167-106 GB-to-FB ratio. Wrigley Field has featured three totals of 10.5 or higher this season with all three going under the total.
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MLB
Chicago Cubs
Matt Garza
Colorado Rockies
Jhoulys Chacin
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