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January

21

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MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks

07.08.2013     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because a lot of the “four-max” data that we’ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what’s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you’re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas.

If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here’s what we’re doing.

*Only recording offense in the first five innings

*Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs

*Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale

This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping “first half” betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling News: Streaks abound in the National League West

07.08.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The National League West has officially become a handicapping nightmare. Arizona lost eight of nine but bounced back with five straight wins. Los Angeles has crawled back into the division race having won 12 of 15. San Diego was hovering around .500 but just wrapped up a 1-9 road trip. San Francisco has lost five straight series to fall 6.5 games back of the D-Backs. And Colorado has lost six of seven and had two more players go down with injuries as Roy Oswalt left Sunday's start with a bum hamstring and Carlos Gonzalez hurt a finger.


"We have to figure it out. We are banged up, but a lot of teams are. We have to find a way to win games, that's the bottom line," Weiss said. "We have to put together better at-bats. I don't care who's pitching. You can only give credit to the pitcher so much."

"We are in a bad situation right now. We have to play better. We don't look the same. It's been a bad time. They totally played better than us," said Gonzalez, whose finger X-Ray didn't reveal a break,

Read more



Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers




College Football Betting: 5 Things I Just Noticed About The Big Ten

07.07.2013     07:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve started preparing for college football. Which means…making humongous plans for what I’m going to try to keep track of only to find out in September that my eyes were bigger than my stomach. I’m at least planning to keep track of drive points (those scored on drives of 60 yards or more) out of the gate this season. If I get a bunch of charts made up for that in July and August, it won’t be too onerous a time commitment on the fly once games start.

Today I was playing around in the Big 10. Here are 5 things I noticed.
 
*Michigan only ranked #78 in total offense last year. There’s a lot to like about Brady Hoke. But, they were a consensus top 10 pick a year ago in the preseason, and only managed 8-5 against a schedule that included some auto-wins. Honeymoons go quickly in the Big 10. They did put up some points late in the year against Ohio State and South Carolina, after struggling for 6 at Notre Dame, 12 vs. Michigan State, and 9 at Read more



Tags: College Football Big Ten Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapping: Notes for All 30 Teams Amidst "Four-Max" Updates

07.01.2013     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, back with updates for the four-max MLB averages we’ve been studying the past few weeks here on these pages. If you’re new to the site, we’re trying to rate offenses for a combination of volume and consistency in terms of their ability to score in the first five innings. This was designed with market propositions for “first half” baseball action in mind…but the approach also works as a strong general way to rank offenses because you’re seeing how the manager’s preferred lineups are doing against opposing rotations.

Keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings.

*Use a cut-off four runs (hence the term, “four-max”) to help take out the influence that big outliers may have…and to create a median of 2 (0-1-2-3-4) that best approximates the reality of early scoring.

For some teams I’ll use “road only” numbers because they play in extreme home parks that Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




Olympian says track and field needs beer and gambling

07.01.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Well this is refreshing. US Olympian Nick Symmonds has suggested a way to make track and field more enjoyable to watch for the common fan. Needless to say, we think his idea is awesome.


“Pop culture has a short attention span and likes booze and gambling. Why don’t we give ‘em an abbreviated meet — like this meet is perfect. It’s two-and-a-half hours with something always going on.

“I’m about as diehard a track fan as you’re going to find and I don’t want to sit out under the sun for eight hours to watch a really slow, poorly run track meet.

“I certainly don’t want to do it on a Saturday afternoon without a beer in my hand.”












In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more



Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Recap: Friday Night News and Notes

06.29.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw together some notes after all. Let’s take the games in rotation order…

*Cole of Pittsburgh got another win. He’s proving to be an interesting pitcher to handicap. He throws 100 mph but doesn’t get strikeouts at a rate you’d expect. At least not so far. Only 3 K’s tonight in 6 innings. He got rocked in the first inning…but then the Pirates scored a zillion runs off the latest Brewers desperation pitcher. The Pirates “four-max” offense (scoring totals in the first five innings with a peak cut-off right at four) the last six games is 4-4-3-4-2-4. They continue a relative explosion from an extended slump several weeks ago.

*Nolasco of Florida has been featured in a lot of trade talk of late. He’s so inconsistent…you can’t be sure that whoever gets him is going to be happy. I’ve arranged his first half runs allowed totals from best to worst. Note how few games are right at a Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapping: Quick Four-Max Notes on all 30 Offenses

06.24.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’m back with updated numbers from the “four-max” approach of evaluating the volume and consistency of Major League offenses for those of you trying to handicap 5-inning propositions. They generally paint an accurate overall picture of offensive quality too since we’re looking at what teams do with their starting lineups against rotation pitchers on other teams.

I had planned on waiting to post until the first five innings were complete in the Texas/St. Louis game on ESPN…but that’s in a rain delay as I’m typing this. No reason to wait a couple of hours (or more) waiting for that to work itself out. Let’s jump into the numbers.

The keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings

*Stop at 4 for any team in an individual game so volume isn’t polluted by superfluous runs against a guy who didn’t have anything, or against that guy and the lousy long reliever who replaced Read more



Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NBA Finals Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs Surge Back Into Series Lead

06.17.2013     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It was surely a team effort from the San Antonio Spurs Sunday Night. You could point to any individual and find a lot to sing about.

*Manu Ginobili had his “back from the dead” game after seeing Dwyane Wade do that for the Heat the last time out.

*Danny Green continued his unprecedented three-point shooting, nailing 6 of 10 from long range.

*Tony Parker ran the offense effectively…which was important tonight because San Antonio was being very aggressive in terms of attacking QUICKLY. Not fast break points, but…as Zach Lowe of Grantland  pointed out on twitter…by getting the ball into the post quickly. Parker was also 10 of 14 shooting.

*Tim Duncan wasn’t the star of the game…but he was 7 of 10 from the floor, grabbed 12 rebounds and blocked 3 shots.

As you know if you watched the game…all of that production came out of a team approach. It wasn’t a case of different guys trying to take Read more



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling News: Pitching helps Toronto Blue Jays crawl back to respectability

06.17.2013     07:56 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado (De La Rosa) at Toronto (Johnson) -150 O/U 9

It took them a while but over the last two weeks the Toronto Blue Jays have started to play up to their preseason expectations. They've won eight of 10 including six of seven against Texas (outscored the Rangers 38-14). During that 10-game swatch the rag-tag bunch of Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Ramon Ortiz, RA Dickey, Esmil Rogers, and Chien-Ming Wang helped post a team ERA of 2.09. The team is hoping Johnson can regain some of his form – if anything to give him value on the free agent market. Note the betting market’s 20 cent move towards Johnson and the Jays for tonight’s contest against the Rockies. Overall, the Jays find themselves four games under .500 and about to embark on very difficult portion of their schedule with upcoming series against Colorado, Baltimore, Read more



Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Colorado Rockies



84

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January

20


 
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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jan 21, 2017 02:38 AM.