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NFL Handicapping: Injuries keep Oakland offense grounded
12.08.2011 06:16 AM
Printer Friendly
Oakland
at
Green Bay
-11 O/U 51.5
Injuries have left Oakland void of much
playmaking talent
. Running back Darren McFadden (foot) has missed the last five games and is currently listed as doubtful. Receiver Jacoby Ford (ankle) has missed three games and is questionable. And Danarius Moore (foot) is also questionable. With the trio out, the Raiders offense produced just one touchdown against Chicago and trailed Miami 34-0 after three quarters only two score two cheap touchdowns in the fourth. The total for Sunday's game at Green Bay has been bet down repeatedly for much of the week; down from an opener of 55 to 51.5/51.
“This has been tough,” Jackson said. “I’ve quit trying to put percentages or days or anything on it. What I try to do with this football team is to keep us afloat and just keep playing. When those guys show back up, they’re going
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NFL
Oakland Raiders
Green Bay Packers
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NFL Handicapping: Offensive performances and run game success Week 13
12.07.2011 12:15 PM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing pointspread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
The top Week 13 offensive performances in victory included the Packers (449 yards, 5.8 yards per play), Ravens (448, 5.7), Chargers (443, 8.0), Saints (438, 7.2), 49ers (389, 6.2), Broncos (386, 6.9) and Panthers (385, 6.1). Poor offensive performances in defeat included the Rams (157, 3.2), Bears (181, 3.3), Bengals (232, 4.2) and Browns 233, 4.2).
Teams that rushed for 150 or more yards went 7-0 SU/ATS. Teams that rush for at least 150 yards and outrush their opponent are covering the point spread 79% of the time, while teams that rush for 175 yards or more are 38-5
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College Basketball Free Pick: Portland Pilots at Boise State Broncos
12.07.2011 10:06 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Portland
at
Boise State
Recommendation: Portland +8.5 1st half
At some point, the betting markets are going to outpace Boise State. Tonight's game against Portland opened -12 but was bet up to a rich -15. The Broncos have dominated weaker foes at home like Utah, Northridge, and Idaho State but I think they'll get a stiffer test tonight against the Pilots. Portland defeated Boise 88-79 last year and though the Pilots lost a lot from that team, they should be familiar with what Boise is going to try to accomplish. Portland has played a very tough schedule including last time out at Saint Louis. They got buried early but didn't quit in the second half and will have a much easier time making baskets tonight. Boise has the ability to wear down teams with its press and up-tempo offense and I think we'll see Portland try to come out and force the Broncos to defend. With the inflated price, I'll call for the underdog to stick around early as we make a play on the
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Portland Pilots
Boise State Broncos
Andrew Lange
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Fairway Jay continues to produce big college basketball profits
12.07.2011 06:52 AM
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We cashed our top-rated 20* Big Drive Tuesday night; an easy over the total (142) winner as Kansas held off Long Beach State, 88-80. This total was bet up during the day to 145.5 and we were in early on not only the biggest total move of the day, but also the total that landed the furthest from the opening line; 26 points. We also cashed a winner on Long Beach State (+13.5) as part of a 4-1 night. That runs our December college basketball record to 13-2 and an overall season mark above 60%.
I’ve included the analysis of our totals selection below that was provided to regular clients and Fairway followers looking to cash in on our recent birdie binge and overall season of profit. What I did not mention in my analysis was that both Kansas and Long Beach State were hitting over 52% of their two-point shots entering the contest. Also note that sharp handicappers and bettors knew that a number of Kansas players were battling the flu and illness the past week, yet for some reason Kansas took money and we were correctly on the right side as Long Beach State played as projected against another top-rated team.
We’ll continue to ‘push the pace’ in
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Update on the Hilton's NFL SuperContest
12.06.2011 02:00 PM
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Update on the Hilton's NFL
SuperContest
. The current leader, who goes by the name "Pagermager”, is 46-15-4 ATS overall, including a impressive 22-2-1 ATS the last five weeks.
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NFL Handicapping: Playoff scenarios heading into Week 14
12.06.2011 01:34 PM
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Getting you up to speed on the current
NFL Playoff scenarios
heading into Week 14. Green Bay and San Francisco have clinched their respective divisions. No team in the AFC has secured a postseason berth yet. Pittsburgh (9-3) trails Baltimore (9-3) in the AFC North yet the
Steelers can clinch
this week while the Ravens can't. New England (9-3) is all but in but
needs to beat Washington
and have the NY Jets lose to Kansas City.
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Handicapper Fairway Jay: Inside the NFL Betting Numbers Week 13
12.06.2011 08:16 AM
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Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers and statistical guidelines to better assist him in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Fairway Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo daily blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
Week 13 NFL favorites went 10-6 SU and 8-8 against the spread. For the season, betting favorites are 92-93-7 ATS. Last season betting favorites went 123-128-7 ATS (48%). A few close wins or losses could have the overall records slightly different based on closing lines and sportsbook. I graded the Carolina Panthers as a betting favorite in Week 13 after the line move from small underdog to 1-point favorite with the change at quarterback for Tampa Bay. Four division games in Week 13 and division underdogs went 0-4 SU/ATS. Home underdogs went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS, and for the season home
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NFL Handicapping: Chicago Bears add to disarray with loss of Forte
12.05.2011 01:54 PM
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Chicago
at
Denver
-3.5 O/U 36
Despite allowing just two touchdowns their last two games, the Chicago Bears managed to lose twice and will be without running back Matt Forte for at least a few games. Forte
hurt his knee
in the first quarter of Sunday's 10-3 loss to the Chiefs. Head coach Lovie Smith said Forte "looked pretty good" at practice on Monday but he is not expected to play this weekend against Denver. Quarterback Caleb Hanie was overwhelmed for a second straight week, completing only 46% of his passes and tossing three interceptions. Rumors circulating that Chicago is looking to bring in a veteran – Donovan McNabb or even...
Brett freakin' Farve
! Smith
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Monday Night Football: Chargers haven't won or covered since October
12.05.2011 12:50 PM
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San Diego
-3 at
Jacksonville
O/U 39
Thoughts on tonight's Monday Football contest between the Chargers and Jaguars from Hilton oddsmaker Jay Kornegay. Don't lie, we know you're excited for this one.
Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Chargers minus-3 and a total of 40. Jacksonville money immediately came in, dropping the line to minus-2.5, where it stayed for a few days. Late Thursday, some San Diego support showed up, bringing it back up to minus-3. Most of the books have moved the Chargers to a split line [minus-3, minus-120], avoiding that dreaded 'hook' [minus-3.5].
"This game looks like it will be decided by the kickers, and this 'hook' is bigger than normal. For that reason, most books will continue with the split line and not go to minus-3.5. Expect the line to remain at minus-3, minus-120 and possibly minus-3, minus-130 by kickoff. Those looking for the Jaguars plus-3.5 … good luck fishing. The total has dropped to 39, where it will
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Casinos see NFL stadiums as prime location for business
12.05.2011 09:45 AM
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Editorial on the potential for a Robert Kraft/Steve Wynn developed
gambling resort
just outside New England's Gillette Stadium.
Only recently did the NFL throw the city a bone and allow Las Vegas to be mentioned in ads during games. But the league still prohibited specific casinos to be identified, and did not allow any references to gambling of any kind.
The NFL has long made it clear it would never allow a team in Las Vegas. Don’t be surprised, though, if it allows casinos near its stadiums.
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