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MLB Betting Update: Is regression coming for the Pittsburgh Pirates?

07.01.2013     02:14 PM     Printer Friendly

FanGraphs attempts to answer weather or not the Pittsburgh Pirates will die a fiery death.

There aren’t enough offsets here for the Pirates to keep this pace up, or even really keep up anything close to this pace. Our rest-of-season forecasts, which use the ZIPS/Steamer projection systems, still believe the Pirates are basically a .500 team over the rest of the season.

MLB Gambling: Pittsburgh Pirates continue rack up the profits

07.01.2013     07:58 AM     View Original Blog

So here we are on July 1, and the Read more

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Betting News: Verlander says he's discovered mechanical flaw

07.01.2013     11:40 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Detroit's Justin Verlander is a top-tier pitcher playing on a top-tier team which leaves little margin for error when it comes to profitability. And in the case of Verlander, who has been good but not great this season, the Tigers are a modest 9-8 in his starts which has resulted in -4.5 units. It's been well documented that after last year's workload, Verlander sort of limped his way into the regular season. His velocity was down and the normally unhittable righty has at times been very hittable (11 ERs, 11 BBs, 13 Ks last 3 starts). According to Verlander, he's spotted a flaw in his mechanics that he feels is fixable. We'll be keeping an eye on his next start which projects to be Thursday in Toronto.

"It's been a battle for me personally this year, mechanics-wise to be able to repeat my delivery like I have in the past but everything's healthy and I think I found something in my last bullpen session before my last start," Verlander said in the interview with "Mike and Mike in the

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Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers

MLB Gambling Free Play: San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds

07.01.2013     10:00 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
San Francisco (Kickham) at Cincinnati (Arroyo) -160 O/U 9
Recommendation: Under

Each of these teams is in an extensive offensive drought right now which should lend a helping hand to starters Michael Kickham and Bronson Arroyo. Over their last 10 games, San Francisco has gone ice cold at the plate hitting just .234 while averaging 2.3 runs per game. Cincinnati’s slump has lasted even longer as they’re now in the midst of a 17 game stretch where they’ve hit just .220 and averaged 2.8 runs per contest. Kickham made one stride in his second MLB outing last Tuesday by striking out five and walking none during his 5.2 inning stint but he was hurt by a pair of two-run homers which accounted for four of the five ER he allowed. Here against a more LH oriented Cincinnati lineup and in his third start overall, figure for a positive progression and somewhere between 5-6 solid innings from him. The Giants bullpen is rested, ready and deep enough to secure the back third Read more

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Cincinnati Reds Rob Veno

Sports Betting Podcast 7-1-2013 with Handicapper Rob Veno

07.01.2013     09:33 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob went through every game on the MLB card.

Today's segments
Rob Veno - MLB EGOTB (Free Play)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB Rob Veno

MLB Handicapping: Notes for All 30 Teams Amidst "Four-Max" Updates

07.01.2013     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, back with updates for the four-max MLB averages we’ve been studying the past few weeks here on these pages. If you’re new to the site, we’re trying to rate offenses for a combination of volume and consistency in terms of their ability to score in the first five innings. This was designed with market propositions for “first half” baseball action in mind…but the approach also works as a strong general way to rank offenses because you’re seeing how the manager’s preferred lineups are doing against opposing rotations.


*Only count runs scored in the first five innings.

*Use a cut-off four runs (hence the term, “four-max”) to help take out the influence that big outliers may have…and to create a median of 2 (0-1-2-3-4) that best approximates the reality of early scoring.

For some teams I’ll use “road only” numbers because they play in extreme home parks that Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Gambling: Pittsburgh Pirates continue rack up the profits

07.01.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
So here we are on July 1, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have the most wins in MLB with 51. They also are the most profitable team in the league with just over +27 units in the bank (Oakland is No. 2 with +11.7). The Bucs have been doing it with pitching as they lead the NL in team ERA (3.13) and groundball percentage (51.1). There are some statistics that indicate the Pirates have been fortunate. Their Pythagorean W-L record is 46-35 which gives them an MLB-leading +5 in the "luck" department. Also note their pitching staff's BABIP is a ridiculous .265 (the Cubs own the second-lowest mark in the NL at .280). However, they don't have crazy records in extra innings (6-4) or 1-run (15-10) games. One of the keys has been simply taking care of business with a record of 33-16 in games against teams below .500 (18-14 vs. teams above .500). For the time being, the Pirates are playing with confidence and doing the little things it takes to win in the National League. Will it last? Probably not at this rate but it doesn't appear that the Pirates are going to suffer another 2nd half meltdown like 2012. Lastly, we dug out this gem from back in 2010 when a group of recreational gamblers Read more

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Gambling Free Play: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

06.29.2013     07:30 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
LA Angels (Blanton) -145 at Houston (Lyles) O/U 9
Recommendation: Under

Earlier this season most bettors would have considered Joe Blanton and Jordan Lyles to be among the worst in the American League. But over the course of the last month or so they've performed very well and as a bonus still aren't highly regarded in the betting markets. For Blanton, over his last four starts we see a sparkling 34-to-3 K-to-BB ratio and 3.67 ERA. And he has a strong record against Houston this season (2 starts, 14.2 IP, 11 hits, 5 ERs, 17 Ks, 0 BBs). Note that it makes perfect sense that a crafty veteran who throws strikes would have success against Houston’s young and sometimes very impatient lineup. Lyles had a hiccup last time out (5 IP, 5 ERs) but it was at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out and that game eventually produced 20 runs and 29 hits. Outside of that, Lyles has really come into his own as he just reached the 300 career innings plateau. Two not-so-great Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapping: A quick look at travel dynamics

06.29.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Some good examples Thursday of what can happen once the dog days of summer have arrived and travel gets even more annoying (because travel is always annoying when you’re tired!)

Focusing on first half (first five inning) production helps you see this because you can recognize the influence both coming and going.

*With a plane to catch…teams often hack their way through the game rather than trying to patiently put together a sequential attack. Sharps have been betting “getaway” Unders for years (as we’ve discussed often). The mainstream sabermetric guys will get around to studying this around 2025. Hack against decent starting pitching, and you won’t put many runs on the board unless you connect for a bunch of solo homers.

*Teams who just flew in…often start kind of slow before getting their bearings. Sometimes you see the hacking. Sometimes it’s just hard to string together walks and hits when you’re first adjusting Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Betting Recap: Friday Night News and Notes

06.29.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw together some notes after all. Let’s take the games in rotation order…

*Cole of Pittsburgh got another win. He’s proving to be an interesting pitcher to handicap. He throws 100 mph but doesn’t get strikeouts at a rate you’d expect. At least not so far. Only 3 K’s tonight in 6 innings. He got rocked in the first inning…but then the Pirates scored a zillion runs off the latest Brewers desperation pitcher. The Pirates “four-max” offense (scoring totals in the first five innings with a peak cut-off right at four) the last six games is 4-4-3-4-2-4. They continue a relative explosion from an extended slump several weeks ago.

*Nolasco of Florida has been featured in a lot of trade talk of late. He’s so inconsistent…you can’t be sure that whoever gets him is going to be happy. I’ve arranged his first half runs allowed totals from best to worst. Note how few games are right at a Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Betting Free Pick: Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles

06.27.2013     10:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Cleveland (Kluber) +120 at Baltimore (Gonzalez) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Cleveland

The Indians have been a streaky team all year, and they’re streaking in a positive direction right now.  They went 18-4 from late April through mid-May, but followed that up with a miserable 4-17 stretch.  Now the Tribe have turned that around, 10-4 in their last 14 ballgames, including four straight series wins and six wins at an underdog price during that span.  Meanwhile, the Orioles are slumping, losers of five of their last six.  And it’s surely worth noting that the vast majority of profits that Baltimore has earned this year have come in the road underdog role, not the home favorite’s role.

Cleveland’s Corey Kluber has notched the win in each of his last three starts, allowing only four runs in 21.2 innings during that span.  His control has been masterful: 69 strikeouts compared to only 13 walks.  And with a .327 BABIP and a 2.98 xFIP, Read more

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Baltimore Orioles Teddy Covers


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