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Handicapper Brent Crow's SEC Gambling Previews
10.13.2011 07:26 AM
Alatex Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports
South Carolina
-3 at
Mississippi State
New quarterbacks are the theme in Starkville this week. Connor Shaw took over for Stephen Garcia last week and led the Gamecocks to their best output of the season, a 54-3 win over Kentucky. Garcia was booted from the team so there is no controversy or doubt who the starter is in South Carolina. Not so for Mississippi State however. Tyler Russell came off the bench for an ineffective Chris Relf last week in Birmingham to lead the Bulldogs to a 21-3 win over UAB. Russell was 11-of-13 for 166 yards and three touchdowns in the second half after Relf failed to put any points on the board in the first half. Dan Mullen has been coy about who will start this week for the Bulldogs, but I would think Russell gets the nod to try to revive a disappointing season thus far. South Carolina should handle either quarterback, however, as the shaky Mississippi State offensive line is the real problem. Shaw will also find it tougher
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Brent Crow
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Arizona to undergo changes under interim head coach
10.13.2011 06:43 AM
Printer Friendly
Life moves on for Arizona following the departure of head coach Mike Stoops. Defensive coordinator Tim Kish steps into the interim role. One report suggested that Kish will be
more aggressive on defense
rather than stick to Stoops’ keep-everything-in-front-of-you philosophy. The team has a fair amount of talent but it wasn't enough to offset the barrage of early season elite level opponents. Things get much easier with UCLA, Washington, Utah and Colorado all upcoming as well as rival Arizona State and a season finale tilt against UL-Lafayette.
“I’m going to continue to prepare and I’m going to continue to get the guys to prepare. Six games, we can do a lot of things. … We have to rally around each other more than ever. It’s us against everyone right now.”
“I’m pretty sure we’re going to change little things,” Wade said. “Every coach has their own little twist on how they want to do things.”
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Arizona Wildcats
PAC-12
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NCAAF Betting Notes: UNLV's Hauck goes with back-up QB vs. Wyoming
10.12.2011 02:18 PM
Printer Friendly
UNLV
at
Wyoming
-10.5 O/U 56.5
After showing signs of life with an upset win over Hawaii, UNLV looked absolutely awful in back-to-back blowout losses to Southern Utah and Nevada. In hopes of reenergizing the team, second-year head coach Bobby Hauck announced that
Sean Reilly will start at quarterback
this weekend at Wyoming. Reilly is in his first year after playing at Saddleback Junior College. He was reportedly outplayed by Caleb Henning during the preseason which probably isn’t a good thing. The good news is Reilly goes up against an extremely soft Wyoming pass defense that allowed 74% pass completions, 230 yards and five touchdowns in last week's 63-19 loss to Utah State. UNLV is now 0-10 SU on the road under Hauck, with an average margin of defeat of 36.6 points.
"Basically, Caleb's working hard, trying as hard as he can, and right
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Weis says Florida will expand playbook regardless of QB
10.12.2011 12:51 PM
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Florida
-2 at
Auburn
O/U 49.5
Florida remains mum on its
starting quarterback situation
but regardless of who plays, offensive coordinator Charlie Weis said that the Gators will need to
expand the playbook
in order to generate more offense.
“As we’re working through the week, both Jacoby and Jeff Driskel are taking snaps at the quarterback position,” Muschamp said. “We haven’t made a decision here as far as the starter’s concerned. Both guys, we have a lot of confidence in.
“We’re going to open some things up a little bit offensively. We need to do that to help our football team.”
“Obviously, we can’t be
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NCAAF Gambling Preview: Northern Illinois in rare role of home underdog
10.12.2011 12:16 PM
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Western Michigan
-1 at
Northern Illinois
O/U 68.5
Big showdown in the MAC as Western Michigan takes to the road to face Northern Illinois. From a historical perspective, the Huskies haven't been home underdogs in quite some time. In fact, this will mark the first such instance since Joe Novak’s final season (2-10 SU) back in 2007. Since then, NIU is 14-3 SU at Huskie Stadium and 43-14 since 2001. But this is a new year and while NIU looks to be a tick down,
WMU is on the rise
. The Broncos are off to a 4-2 start (5-1 ATS) including a 2-0 mark in conference play. They feature one of the most underrated quarterback in the country in Alex Carder (1,678 yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs). Once regarded as the league's most feared stop unit thanks to former coach Jerry Kill, NIU's defense (two returning starters) under first-year head
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College Football Handicapping: Red flags for Bowling Green defensive line
10.12.2011 11:28 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
I’m going to focus in this week on some trench play inside the MAC which generally gets overlooked by most college football observers. There has been one very disturbing situation going on that is certainly worth noting and more importantly, applicable for this weekend’s game.
Bowling Green’s defensive line play has been abysmal in allowed 711 rushing yards the past two weeks. The most concerning piece to these miserable performances is that neither of the opponents, West Virginia or Western Michigan, had any semblance of a ground game prior to playing the Falcons.
The Mountaineers were becoming extremely worried about their rushing attack which had only accounted for 16.7% of the team’s total yardage after their first four games. Then, out of the blue, they get a 360-yard effort against BG (7.8 per carry) which was spearheaded by freshman running back Dustin Garrison’s 291 yards. West Virginia gained more rushing yards in that one game than they had in their four previous games combined (306). This result led WVA, their fan base, and the entire college football nation to believe that the Mountaineers’ rushing issues were
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NFL Handicapper Analysis: Offenses and scoring explode
10.12.2011 11:17 AM
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Submitted by
Throughout the NFL season, Fairway Jay provides a look at weekly box scores, stats and how to utilize the numbers and situations for success. For over a decade, Jay has kept a proprietary database of statistical information and guidelines to better assist him in providing pointspread winners. Jay is a recognized leader in NFL handicapping and you can follow his articles and insight in the Sportsmemo Blog and on Twitter:
@FairwayJay
I’ve been reading a lot on the explosion of points and offensive production in the NFL this season. Most the media reacts to the information and points out the obvious after it has happened. As a professional sports handicapper with nearly a decade of proven success in pointspread prognosis, I can tell you that following the talking heads and stuffed suits at ESPN, NFL Network and other “experts” offering opinions is a sure fire bet to bottom out your bankroll.
No doubt we have to recognize the scoring surge in the NFL. After all, there have been 3,566 points scored through 5 weeks of NFL action; the most in NFL history. That’s
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College Football ATS Notes: Kansas State thrives in role of underdog
10.12.2011 07:59 AM
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Kansas State
at
Texas Tech
-3 O/U 59.5
Kansas State is still using the
pointspread as motivation
. Under Bill Snyder, the Wildcats are 10-5 ATS as an underdog including three straight outright victories.
“It’s the same feeling every game,” wide receiver Chris Harper said. “We just do what we do, and we’ll be fine. The guys who draw up the lines, they don’t play the game. They don’t know anything about it. So I don’t pay any attention to that.”
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College Football Gambling Preview: USC Trojans at California Golden Bears
10.12.2011 07:43 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
USC
-3 at
California
(Thursday, ESPN, 6 pm PT)
CRIS Opening Line:
USC -4 O/U 56
CRIS Current Line:
USC -3 O/U 58
Rob Veno Power Rating:
USC -2
Andrew Lange’s Betting Take:
In looking over this game, I see a lot of factors that favor the road side. For starters, using our
ACCU-Stat matchups
, you’ll notice that USC has nearly a one yard advantage in three different categories – including stopping the run which is the most critical of the four. And the stats are “real” as both teams have played comparable schedules and rank near one another in terms of strength of schedule (Sagarin: Cal 50th, USC 57th). Defensively, I think USC has the edge, even though they allowed some big scores the last two weeks. They jumped out to a 34-12 lead over Arizona
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NCAAF Betting Notes: Air Force defensive line main source of team woes
10.12.2011 06:46 AM
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San Diego State
at
Air Force
-6 O/U 58.5
We mentioned last week that the
loss of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter
had an impact on the decline of the unit. Adding to that has been the
large number of key injuries
. The Falcons typically use a three-man front and all three Week 1 starters are currently out. That is without question the main reason the team ranks dead last nationally in rush defense (235.2 ypg). Head coach Troy Calhoun has been forced to play some freshmen; a rarity as basic training and the complexity of schemes is often too overwhelming. San Diego State ran for 209 yards (7.2 ypc) in last year's 27-25 win. Last week, Notre Dame scored 59 points and averaged 9.2 ypc.
“We
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