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NFL Gambling Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants

10.31.2012     11:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Pittsburgh at New York Giants
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New York -3.5 O/U 47
CRIS Current: New York -3 (-120) O/U 47.5

The betting markets are having a hard time pricing the Giants correctly this year. The defending Super Bowl champs have clear weaknesses. Their defense is leaky, allowing 6.2 yards per play against them – only the Saints and Bills have been worse in that advanced metric stat. And those weak defensive numbers have come against one of the weaker schedules in the NFL, facing only one opponent with a winning record all year.

The Giants have been outrushed on a yards per carry basis and it’s getting worse, not better – Ahmad Bradshaw has been held under four yards per carry in each of their last two ballgames. And the Giants seem to play better football away from home than they do in the new Met-Life Stadium. They are 1-3 ATS as home chalk Read more

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers New York Giants Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Preview: Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers

10.31.2012     11:30 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Arizona State at Oregon State
Andrew Lange’s Recommendation
: Over
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT – ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Oregon State -4 O/U 53.5
CRIS Current: Oregon State -4.5 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Oregon State -4.5

Based on the past two weeks it is safe to say the Arizona State's defense may be a tad overrated. We knew a regression was coming after the Sun Devils faced a slew of mediocre offenses and back-up quarterbacks. The last two weeks, against Oregon and UCLA, ASU allowed 88 points and nearly 1,000 yards on close to six yards per play. It is an all-or-nothing unit –sack the quarterback, blow up a run play or get gashed for a big gain.

Folks are making a big deal about Oregon State's quarterback conundrum. Cody Vaz will start this game – Sean Mannion simply isn't 100% healthy. Vaz is going to have to make some quick decisions facing Read more

Tags: College Football Arizona State Sun Devils Oregon State Beavers PAC-12 Andrew Lange

NFL Gambling Notes: Washington Redskins use dreaded 'must win' for Carolina game

10.30.2012     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Carolina at Washington -3.5 O/U 46.5

Despite a historical success rate of about 43.48% (we made that up), Washington head coach Mike Shanahan pulled out the old "must win" in describing Sunday's game against Carolina.

“I think everybody knows it’s a must-win game when you’re 3-5 at the bye week if you have any chance at the playoffs,” Shanahan said. “Everybody understands at the midway point that you have to play your best football or you’re eliminated awful quick.”

“We know statistically it’s not that way but realistically that’s what happens over the years.”

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Carolina Panthers

NFL Betting News and Notes Week 8

10.30.2012     12:59 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
For the first time since taking over as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles in 1999, Andy Reid suffered a post-bye week loss (30-17 vs. Atlanta).  It was a game that provided us with a candidate for worst defensive performance of the season by the Eagles. Philly gave up big plays, tons of yards and points, and had numerous defensive penalties throughout the game. The Eagles allowed 392 total yards at a staggering 5.9 yards per play. So much for the easy transition during the bye week from former defensive coordinator Juan Castillo to Todd Bowles. If anything, the Philly defense regressed even further and will now have the explosive Saints offense to deal with on the road on Monday night.

Dallas Cowboys betting supporters were put through the entire gamut of emotions in Sunday’s thriller against the New York Giants. The Giants picked off Tony Romo three times early in the game en route to a 23-0 second quarter lead but the Cowboys didn’t pack up their saddle. They engineered four straight scoring drives (3 TDs and a FG) to take a 24-23 lead. The Giants notched a pair of field goals after that to regain a 29-24 lead in fourth. Dallas had a chance with the Read more

Tags: NFL Iam Cameron

Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Pre- and Post-Bye Week Teams

10.29.2012     11:45 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the three strongest prevailing angles for the 2012 NFL season. Let me update the numbers from a week ago.

NFC Underdogs – any underdog in any game – have gone 37-12-2 ATS this season. But that angle has now suffered back-to-back losing weeks, looking like it’s come and gone as the market has adjusted to reflect the NFC’s dominance – just 3-5 ATS in Week 8 after a 2-3-1 ATS mark in Week 7.

Teams heading into the bye week are now 1-14 ATS, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another. The Jets were the only team to fall into this category on Sunday, with the 49ers pending on Monday Night. This trend is still very live; 0-3 ATS over the past two weeks.

And teams coming out of the bye are on a 9-5 ATS streak; again discounting the games where one post-bye team faced another. But that trend seems to e flat lining: 2-2 ATS in Week 7 followed by another 2-2 ATS performance in Week 8.

What’s really going on with these pre-bye or post-bye squads? For the second straight week, I focused my attention on five teams in one of these two roles.

Miami Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons New York Jets New England Patriots Miami Dolphins Philadelphia Eagles Teddy Covers

Final table of World Series of Poker starts tonight on ESPN2

10.29.2012     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The final table of the World Series of Poker Main Event kicks off tonight at 4:30 pm PT on ESPN2. The Las Vegas Sun breaks down the final nine players.

Tags: Poker

College Football Handicapping: UNLV's Sherry expected to start behind banged up o-line

10.26.2012     12:10 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
UNLV at San Diego State -18 O/U 57

UNLV's Nick Sherry (back) is expected to start Saturday's game at San Diego State. It doesn't sound like he is 100% and he'll be working behind an injury-riddled offensive line.

“Every week it seems like somebody’s dealing with something,” said senior tackle Yusef Rodgers, who this week is listed as doubtful with a leg injury.

“It is kind of discouraging because we had high hopes,” Rodgers said of the offensive line. “We feel like with what we’ve got, we’re still doing all right.”

Tags: College Football UNLV Rebels San Diego State Aztecs Mountain West

College Football Gambling Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide

10.26.2012     07:37 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
Mississippi State at Alabama
Brent Crow's Recommendation:
Saturday, 5:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -23.5 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Alabama -24 O/U 46.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -24

We have yet another huge SEC matchup this week, with top-ranked Alabama hosting the unbeaten Mississippi State Bulldogs. Unlike the last few weeks, where we saw short-lined matchups between Florida- LSU, South Carolina-LSU, Florida-South Carolina, Alabama is laying a hefty -24. Clearly, Mississippi State is not thought of as a “real” contender in the SEC despite its unblemished record. This biggest reason for this is their lack of quality wins due to a fairly soft schedle. The Bulldogs’ most impressive win came at home against Tennessee – and Alabama just dismantled the Vols in Knoxville, 44-13, last week.

Mississippi State’s other victims include Auburn Read more

Tags: College Football Mississippi State Bulldogs Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Brent Crow

NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

10.25.2012     03:23 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Philadelphia  -2.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Philadelphia -1.5

Andy Reid took over as the Eagles head coach prior to the 1999 campaign. Here are his results as Philly’s head coach following the Eagles dozen bye weeks in the Reid era:

1999: Eagles (+ 8.5) 38, Rams 31
2000: Eagles (-10) 16, Bengals 7
2001: Eagles (+3) 10, Giants 9
2002: Eagles (-3) 20, Bucs 10
2003: Eagles (+3) 23, Bills 13
2004: Eagles (-9.5) 30, Panthers 8
2005: Eagles (-4.5) 20, Chargers 17
2006: Eagles (-7) 27, Redskins 3
2007: Eagles (-4) 16, NYJ 9
2008: Eagles (-9.5) 27, Falcons 14
2009: Eagles (-15.5) 33, Bucs 14
2010: Eagles (-3.5) 26, Colts 24
2011: Eagles (-3) 34, Cowboys 7

Yes, that’s a 13-0 SU mark Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Philadelphia Eagles Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Preview: UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils

10.24.2012     11:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
UCLA at Arizona State
Andrew Lange's Recommendation:
Saturday, 12 pm PT - FX
CRIS Opener:
Arizona State -7 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Arizona State -6.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Arizona State -3

College football has certainly changed over the last decade with the popularity of spread and pass-happy offenses. But one thing that remains constant is that teams who are sound in the running game tend to be much stronger bets than teams who don't. When I handicap the college football card this time of year, one of the things I'm looking for are underdogs with better ypc and ypca allowed numbers than the favorite. It doesn't happen often because that type of discrepancy is usually accounted for in the betting markets.

In the case of UCLA-Arizona State, our ACCU-Stats show that the Bruins are over a yard per carry better than the Sun Devils. Considering both teams have nearly identical Read more

Tags: College Football UCLA Bruins Arizona State Sun Devils PAC-12 Andrew Lange


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