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September

26

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Overlooked Super Bowl XLVII Handicapping Factor: Baltimore's Disruptive Defense

01.25.2013     07:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’re still early in the hype sequence for this year’s Super Bowl. But, already, it’s pretty clear that the main stories are going to be:

The Harbaugh brother angle

Colin Kaepernick and related Kaepernickia

Joe Flacco breaking through to “elite” status

Ray Lewis’s retirement

Something I think has been overlooked so far (and I'm including myself in this) is the role Baltimore’s defense has played in disrupting opposing quarterbacks so far in the playoffs. You regulars know that I developed a ridiculously simple stat for eyeballing how clean or sloppy an offense is playing…or, from the other perspective, how clean or sloppy an opposing defense allows an offense to play.

Sloppiness: 5 times turnovers…plus the number of incomplete passes

I’m pleased that so many have agreed with me that this is a great stat for painting the picture of a game, even if it is embarrassingly Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVII Stat Intelligence




NBA Handicapping: Wizards and Rockets your latest ATS streakers

01.24.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I mentioned last night that several storylines we’ve been following would be in play on the Wednesday night NBA schedule. For the most part, all of those storylines continue unabated. Let’s start with the third game on the Nevada rotation schedule, because it’s barely worth mentioning that Charlotte is still horrible (they lost and failed to cover vs. Atlanta), and Miami is still coasting until the games matter (they had to go overtime to beat Toronto).

*Detroit continued its solid play, losing by only three points as a 6-point underdog in Chicago even though they were playing on night two of a back-to-back. The final score was 85-82. Home court advantage is worth three points typically in the NBA. So, that grades out as the Pistons being even with Chicago. And, THAT’S consistent with what we’ve been talking about lately with the Pistons’ improvement. They’re still playing like a team in the low 80’s (or high 70’s tonight in a Read more



Tags: NBA Washington Wizards Houston Rockets




NBA Handicapping: Boston Celtics are the Los Angeles Lakers of the East!

01.23.2013     01:49 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submmitted by Stat Intelligence

You wouldn’t know this by the won-lost records. Sure, both teams are disappointments. But, Boston is only a game below .500 at 20-21 after losing Tuesday night in Cleveland, while the Lakers have sunk to an astonishing 17-24. The Lakers are now a longshot to make the playoffs unless the teams in front of them stay leapfrog-able (our current "word of the week"). Boston is still in the Eastern brackets, three games clear of the nearest team to catching them.

Yet…

Versus the Weaker Eastern Conference:

Boston: .500 (13-13)

LA Lakers: .500 (8-8)

Versus the Top 5 in the West:

Boston: 1-5 for a .167 winning percentage

LA Lakers 2-7 for a .222 winning percentage

The Lakers are 1-2 against current #6 Denver, but Boston hasn’t had to play them yet

Both Won at Home Against:

Portland

Phoenix

Houston

It Read more



Tags: NBA Boston Celtics Los Angeles Lakers Stat Intelligence




NBA Handicapping: Hunter makes coaching debut for train wreck Phoenix Suns

01.23.2013     12:11 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We mentioned this article on today's Sportsmemo Podcast with Erin Rynning. It discusses Phoenix's decision to promote Lindsey Hunter to head coach as well as assistant Dan Majerle's departure. As for Hunter, rumor has it the Suns are going to play more up-tempo. Of course there has also been talk about becoming more defensive-minded. Note that the Suns haven't played since last Thursday.




Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns




A perfect match: Gambling and the Super Bowl

01.21.2013     12:34 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Publicly, the NFL is among one of the staunchest opponents of legalized gambling. Former commissioner Paul Tagliabue and current commissioner Roger Goodell were instrumental in getting the anti gaming ‘Illegal Internet Gambling Prohibition Act’ attached to the Port Security Bill. The NFL has taken this stance despite the fact that its enormous popularity is, in no small part, due to the prevalence of betting on games.

The hypocrisy of the NFL in regards to betting is almost laughable. The facts, as you will see, clearly show that the league was founded by gamblers for gamblers. From the NFL’s first television appearance in 1939 through the current TV deal that pumps more than three billion dollars per year into the league coffers, the NFL’s popularity rests upon the shoulders of those who wager on the outcome of the games.

Here in the 21st century, the NFL is the most popular and profitable sport in the. NFL owners are among the richest men in the world; franchises are bought and sold for more than half a billion dollars. However, the league’s humble origins were anything but the extravagant bonanza that is the NFL today. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVII




Sportsmemo's Teddy Covers featured in upcoming sports betting movie Life On The Line

01.21.2013     07:54 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write about sports every week. Next week in this space, I’ll be writing about Super Bowl props. Two weeks from now, it’ll be all about college basketball through the end of March Madness. But not today. Today, I’m going to write about movies. Nobody needs two full weeks of Super Bowl hype!

There are no great sports betting movies –none. Hollywood has produced a handful of great gambling movies – The Sting, Casino, Rounders, The Hustler and Croupier certainly stand out. But when it comes to anything resembling realism in a sports betting movie, it doesn’t exist. Every bettor in a Hollywood sports betting movie is a compulsive addict; every bookmaker is evil and they always win.

There are no exceptions in this tried and true Hollywood formula. If Richard Dreyfuss isn’t uncontrollably gambling on every race in ‘Let it Ride’, then Matthew McConaughey is forcing his clients into bankruptcy and letting his entire career path depend on a coin-flip in ‘Two for the Money’. Even Bruce Willis, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Vince Vaughn couldn’t save last year’s ‘Lay the Favorite’; just Read more



Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLVII Teddy Covers Erin Rynning Alf Musketa




College Basketball Handicapping: Results from Saturday's marquee matchups

01.20.2013     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

With football out of the way, college basketball made sure it had a blockbuster schedule to capture the hearts and eyeballs of America’s sports fans. Yesterday’s string of marquee matchups definitely had a March Madness feel to it…which means it was a good early primer for those hoping to handicap the tournament in a couple of months.

I grabbed the key stats from the biggest games, with an eye toward starting to build profiles of teams and their tournament potential. Gut check games like we had today can be great indicators for March because strengths are neutralized, and weaknesses exposed. How you bully teams disappears when you can’t bully! Developments today will likely foreshadow issues that will come up in other big games…in the conference tournaments…and then once the Dance starts.

I’ll go in order of the poll rankings. But, because poll rankings can be off, I’ll also include the numbers coming into today from the most Read more



Tags: College Basketball Stal Intelligence




NBA Handicapping: Schedule has Houston Rockets running on fumes

01.19.2013     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You’re about to see what fatigue looks like statistically!

Last week we talked about the brutal schedule stretch that was coming up for the Houston Rockets. They had just defeated the Los Angeles Lakers. But, they were about to embark on a two-week odyssey that would see them play two different four-game-in-five-night stretches with the vast majority of action on the road.

We then suggested the team hit a wall in the fourth quarter in New Orleans the next night (when they were outscored 29-10 to blow a big lead). Then, we monitored developments through the week as the Rockets continued to lose. Tonight’s 105-95 loss at Indiana continued the story. And, I’ve come up with a way that may be the best illustration of what happens to the Rockets when they get tired (for other teams, it may show up in other categories).

First, a quick review of the gauntlet to this point…

Last Tuesday: Big Win over Lakers

Last Wednesday: Died in Read more



Tags: NBA Houston Rockets Stat Intelligence




NFL Betting News: Know your officiating crews for Sunday's title games

01.18.2013     12:29 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Worth a read as ESPN spits out some numbers on both officiating crews for Sunday's NFC and AFC championship games.


McAulay's 52 holding calls tied with Ron Winter for the most among the officials. As a result, McAulay's games average 44 points a game, 1.7 below the league average. Leavy tends to let the players play. His 13.9 penalties a game is the ninth fewest. His 22 holding penalties tied for the second fewest. But cornerbacks need to watch out. Leavy led the NFL with 20 pass interference penalties. His games tend to be higher scoring at 48.7 points, fifth highest among officials.







Tags: NFL




NBA Betting Trends: Will Phoenix Suns see boost following Gentry's departure?

01.18.2013     11:38 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Earlier today, the Phoenix Suns "mutually agreed to part ways" with head coach Alvin Gentry. The Suns are in the midst of a horrific 2-13 slide (6-8-1 ATS). Gentry's departure marks the fourth mid-season coaching change. A small sample, but worth noting that the other three saw an immediate boost in success following the switch. Let’s take a look.

Los Angeles Lakers: Mike Brown was fired on November 9 and the Lakers won five of their next six (4-2 ATS) under Bernie Bickerstaff and Mike D'Antoni.

Brooklyn Nets: Avery Johnson was fired on December 29. PJ Carlesimo took over and the Nets have responded, winning nine of 11 (6-4-1 ATS) heading into tonight's contest against Atlanta.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks parted ways with Scott Skiles and promoted Jim Boylan. Under Boylan, Milwaukee has won four of six (4-2 ATS).





Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns



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