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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the AFC West

06.06.2016     09:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The calendar has turned to June and Vegas is sweltering hot.  That can only mean one thing for NFL bettors – the offseason marketplace starts to heat up with the weather.  The season win total markets and the odds to win each division have seen some movement.  That means it’s time to get to work (if you haven’t done so already) on a thorough offseason analysis of each team.

Over the course of the hot summer months, I’ll be previewing all eight NFL divisions from a win total standpoint, moving from West to East here in my Wiseguy Report.  So without further ado, let’s take a look at the AFC West this week, starting with the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos.

The Broncos went 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS and 10-6 to the Under last year; lined Over/Under 9.5 wins for 2016.  They finished -4 in turnovers for the campaign, leading the league in throwing interceptions.  Bettors seem to be worried about the QB situation, whether it’s Trevor Siemian or Marc Sanchez behind center.  But the Broncos cannot get worse quarterbacking than they had last year, when an ineffective Peyton Manning finished with a Read more

Tags: NFL AFC West Denver Broncos San Diego Charges Kansas City Chiefs Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Prepping for the College Football season

05.23.2016     10:22 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
My summer homework progression is simple.  I do my NFL work first, because not that much changes in the professional ranks over the summer.  Once we’re done with the draft and the initial free agent signing period, it’s easy to make preliminary assessments of all 32 NFL teams.  While the season win total market is still a long way from true maturity, we do have a pretty good sense of two things.  First, how the 32 teams are projected, power ratings wise and second, how tough a team’s schedule is going to be.

When it comes to college football, I don’t do much until after the MLB All-Star break, and the majority of my college football prep comes in August.  Why the difference?  Simple – a lot more changes in college over the summer, and I’m not a big fan of doing the same work twice!  The depth charts that you’re going to see popping up in all the college football preview publications were accurate at the end of spring camp.  By mid-August, they’re essentially obsolete. 

There are many more players moving up and down the depth charts in college.  There are more Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds

05.20.2016     10:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Seattle (Iwakuma) -130 at Cincinnati (Straily) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

Cincinnati has been an Over machine, cashing only 14 Unders in their first 41 games.  It’s easy to understand why – their pitching has been nothing short of awful.  No starter has lasted past the sixth inning in the last two weeks, and Reds starters have lasted only 208.1 combined innings, the lowest number of innings pitched in MLB.

Poor starting pitching has led to an exhausted, overworked bullpen, a pen that ranks #29 in innings pitched this season.  Reds relievers rank dead last in MLB with a 6.48 ERA, 88 walks and 34 home runs allowed.  That bullpen has been severely tested and depleted in their last series against the Indians; forced to throw 19.2 innings over the four game set while allowing 20 runs in the process.  All four of those games flew Over the total, by a combined 26 runs!  And it’s surely worth noting that the Reds lineup is in solid current form, pounding out 25 runs over their last five games.

Seattle won’t lose Nelson Cruz’s big bat despite playing in an NL Park tonight, with Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Cincinnati Reds Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors must be willing to change opinions on the fly

05.16.2016     11:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Successful sportsbettors are not politicians.   Politicians take heat every time they change their opinion – flip-floppers!  A politician who is pro-choice on abortion, for example, will take enormous criticism from both sides, and will probably lose his or her next election if he or she switches to a pro-life stance.

Sports bettors, like politicians, are inevitably going to have some wrong opinions – about teams, about players, about coaches.  Bill Belichick was not a great coach with the Cleveland Browns, and was not highly regarded after suffering a losing campaign in his first year.  Greg Popovich certainly wasn’t a high profile, top notch hire when the Spurs decided he should be their head coach.  The Carolina Panthers weren’t taken seriously by most NFL analysts last year until they reached the Super Bowl.  Steph Curry wasn’t a superstar...until he was. 
Throughout the world of sports and sportsbetting, everybody – E-V-E-R-Y-B-O-D-Y! – is going to have some wrong opinions.  But the differences in how bettors deal with those wrong opinions is fairly dramatic; often the Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers Teddy Covers

Gambling News: Australia bans live betting

04.29.2016     06:38 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Australian Government just placed a ban on live in-game sports betting via the internet which reportedly accounts for around 15% of its market.

“I think it’s a win for the lazy, traditional monopoly wagering operators in Australia who are more interested in protecting their monopoly than giving consumers what they want. It is a sad day for Australian consumers and I think the big winners today are the illegal offshore operators who will be able to continue to operate uninhibited.”

"I think it's been a very competitive market and in competitive markets boundaries can be stretched," Mr Attenborough told Fairfax Media. "I think its good to see the government actually providing clarity on where those boundaries will be set going forward. And what's important in competitive markets is you need to have clear boundaries so all players can operate within those boundaries."

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

04.27.2016     01:25 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Kansas City (Young) +120 at Los Angeles (Tropeano) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Kansas City

Here’s an excerpt that I’ve been cutting and pasting when betting on Chris Young games for the last two seasons.  It’s (obviously) still pertinent and valid:

“Young is a veteran hurler – he’s been in the majors since 2004 – and a bright guy, a Princeton graduate.  He’s also extraordinarily tall at 6-10 with a tendency to throw high strikes, resulting in awkward angles for many opposing batters as they try to take him deep.  This bright, experienced veteran now has a CAREER xFIP of more than a full run higher than his career ERA.  Two years ago, it was more than a run and a half higher. Last year it was close to a run and a half differential between xFIP and ERA.  Over one season, this would be an anomaly.  Over a decade, it’s a clear pattern.  Young’s fairly unique skill set allows him to leave high fastballs over the plate and still get fly ball outs.  The advanced metric numbers don’t see the method behind the stats, which leaves Young as a Read more

Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Oakland A's at New York Yankees

04.21.2016     01:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Oakland (Hill) at New York (Severino) -126 O/U 8
Recommendation: New York

The A’s have a better early season record than the Yankees do.  That being said, moving forward, I see much more upside with New York’s roster than with Oakland’s.  And I have no hesitation betting against A’s starter Rich Hill.  Hill will be facing a lineup built to hammer opposing left handers, bad news in a situation where the Bronx Bombers are looking to avoid the three game sweep at home.

When Rich Hill is on, like he was once in three starts this year (against the Mariners), he’s a decent starter.  But Hill’s consistency has been a problem, as has his health; a guy who has only thrown 187 big league innings since throwing 195 innings back in 2007.  Four other teams have given up on him since the start of the 2013 season.  Behind Hill, the A’s spotty bullpen has already been overused.  And the A’s anemic lineup is averaging only three runs per game, producing more than five runs only once in 15 games – if their pitching isn’t elite, they’ll have a hard time Read more

Tags: MLB Oakland A's New York Yankees Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Betting markets don't believe in Thunder and Clippers

04.18.2016     10:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
When it comes to the chase for the NBA Championship this year, Golden State has taken all the oxygen in the room. What little hype that has been able to escape the Warriors vortex has gravitated towards San Antonio, especially as the Spurs were chasing the NBA all-time record for most home wins in a season. 

Then Kobe went out and scored 60 on the final night of the regular season.  LeBron announced that he was getting off social media and immediately proceeded to go on a ten game tear to close out the regular season, leading the prohibitive favorite to come out of the East, Cleveland Cavaliers.  The national media spotlight just isn’t big enough to cover more stories than the easy ones that have fallen into their laps over the last few months.

And that leaves two teams that I think are legitimate title contenders sitting as relative afterthoughts in the national media spotlight and in the betting markets.  The Oklahoma City Thunder were priced in the 15-1 range to win the NBA Title entering the playoffs.  The Los Angeles Clippers were even higher, priced in the 30:1 range.  Even though the spotlight is shining brightly on the Read more

Tags: NBA Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Cippers Oklahoma City Thunder Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

04.13.2016     08:53 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin blog entry.
San Francisco (Peavy) -110 at Colorado (Lyles) O/U 11.5
Recommendation: Over

The San Francisco Giants (6-2) have jumped out to an early lead in the National League West thanks to a red hot .860 team OPS. They’ll be be facing another offensive minded team in the Colorado Rockies tonight who possess the second highest team OPS in the National League. Tonight’s starting pitchers suggests the offensive production should continue. Jake Peavy has long been past his prime and looked shaky in his first start with 10 hits and 4 earned runs allowed. He also has not fared well in this venue with an opponent's’ team OPS of .860 and dismal 1.61 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 appearances. A few reports coming out of spring had Jordan Lyles pegged as a sleeper heading into the campaign but he got knocked around a bit in his first outing (3.1 IP, 5 ERs). And despite his ground ball tendencies, he’s yet to figure out Coors Field with a 5.16 lifetime ERA in nearly 100 innings of work. The potential is there for multiple big innings as we look to play the over.

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Colorado Rockies Drew Martin

NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Pick: San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings

04.12.2016     08:15 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith blog entry.
Los Angeles vs. San Jose
Series Recommendation: San Jose +130

Two hated Pacific Division rivals clash in this first series. Los Angeles and San Jose faced one another two postseasons ago with the Sharks suffering a historic collapse after taking a 3-0 series lead. The Kings won four straight en route to their second Stanley Cup in three years. That series loss was the catalyst for San Jose to fire coach Todd McLellan and infuse youth within lockerroom. Now this team is hungry and ready to make another run into the playoffs after a one-year rebuild. The Kings also look primed and ready to make a deep postseason push after missing out on the playoffs last year. They became the first team since the 2007-08 Carolina Hurricanes to miss the postseason a year removed from winning the Stanley Cup.

Both of these teams are built in similar fashion with big, strong forwards up front who have the skills to score but also the toughness to bang bodies along the boards. They each have very dangerous power play attacks and neither club takes a ton of dumb penalties. However, given the nature and history of this rivalry, we will definitely see our fair share Read more

Tags: NHL San Jose Sharks Los Angeles Kings Alex B. Smith


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