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Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: Total Kickoff Returns UNDER 6.5
01.31.2012 12:12 PM
Otto Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
Total Kickoff Returns
Recommendation: Under 6.5 (-160 at LVH)
New York Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes doesn’t have the strongest leg in the NFL. In 2010 the Giants averaged a touchback on just 8.2% of all kickoffs. It certainly doesn’t help that the Giants also play many games in poor weather and in plenty of outdoor stadiums. But this history actually helps us this Sunday with Tynes now indoors and kicking off from the 35-yard line.
Consider this; since the new rule was adopted prior to the season the Giants have averaged a touchback on 38.4% of all kickoffs. That’s a significant improvement and shows Tynes has the leg to get it deep with that extra five yard boost from the rulebook. But that’s not the most significant factor in play this weekend. In the three games the Giants played indoors they averaged a touchback on a whopping 60% of all kickoffs!
If there was one player we needed to really worry about with this prop it was Tynes and I think the numbers bear out that he should be no issue at all.
New England kicker Gostkowski has a much stronger leg and while we
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Tags:
NFL
New England Patriots
New York Giants
Super Bowl XLVI
Marty Otto
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Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet Pick: Victor Cruz OVER 5.5 catches
01.31.2012 07:18 AM
Otto Sports
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports
Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bet
New York Giants’ Victor Cruz Receptions
Recommendation: OVER 5.5 (-130 at Greek)
No player in the NFL was targeted more by his quarterback over the final half of the season than the New York Giants’ Victor Cruz. Eli Manning threw the ball his way a remarkable 125 times in games from Week 8 up to the Super Bowl. Cruz, in turn, has responded with a boat load of receptions. Nine times over the last 13 games the wideout has had at least six receptions which would be good enough to cash this prop bet in the Super Bowl.
One of those nine games came against this same opponent. Back in their Week 9 meeting with New England, Cruz finished with six catches for 91 yards. The speedy wide receiver arguably has a better matchup in order to post similar or better numbers this week with the fast turf in Indy and no wind conditions to deal with. And Cruz could see more targets in this game simply because Hakeem Nicks is still dealing with a shoulder injury.
Quietly, Cruz has become the favorite target of Eli Manning and led the team in receptions and I don’t expect that to
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Super Bowl XLVI
Marty Otto
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Las Vegas oddsmakers offer opinions on Super Bowl XLVI
01.31.2012 06:52 AM
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Gaming Today
got the opinions of some Las Vegas oddsmakers and local media members on Super Bowl XLVI. Nine of the 11 picked New England to win. LVH's Jay Kornegay was on board with the Giants and MGM's Jay Rood hinted that the game will go under.
Jay Rood, MGM Resorts – Patriots 24-23: I see a low scoring game with Brady executing a last minute drive to seal the game and his hall of fame credentials.
Mike Colbert, Cantor Gaming – Patriots 27-20: Brady and Belichick will be too much for the Giants in a double-revenge game.
Jay Kornegay, LVH Super Book – Giants 27-24: I think the Giants defensive momentum carries over into this game and frustrates Brady.
Bert Osborne, South Point – Patriots 31-20: I’ve seen the Giants look bad a lot more times this season than I have with the Patriots.
Bob Scucci, Coast Resorts – Patriots 27-24: I think this will be a closely fought game with no team getting too far ahead, just like their last Super Bowl and week 9 this year.
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Super Bowl XLVI Betting: New England's defense on the rise
01.30.2012 12:38 PM
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Article that argues the defenses for New England and New York are
evenly matched
. Some of the logic is without question flawed but with improved health, the Patriots are clearly in a better spot defensively than they were during the regular season.
“I think just getting guys back healthy, first and foremost,” fellow linebacker Jerod Mayo said when asked why the defense has improved. “Getting [Patrick] Chung back, getting [Brandon] Spikes back; being able to play with the same group of guys for a couple weeks, which is an extended period for this team this year. I think that’s the main thing for us.”
“We’re the same defense,” New England linebacker Rob Ninkovich said. “Obviously, we had some things that weren’t going our way earlier in the year; we had some ups and downs. But I think we did a good job of fighting through everything and improving each week towards the end of the year, which is the most important part of the year.”
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Handicapper Teddy Covers' Super Bowl XLVI Gambling Preview
01.30.2012 10:34 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
The 2011 Super Bowl was not a good one for the sportsbooks here in Las Vegas and offshore. They underestimated the groundswell of support for Green Bay and the Over. Money poured in on the favorite, driving the line up as high as -3 from a -1 opener. And money poured in on the Over; the closing total was as high as 55 at several key locations. When the Packers won 31-25, bettors cashed in on both the side and total. It was the worst Super Bowl result for the books since the infamous Super Bowl XIII, back in January 1979 when the Steelers beat the Raiders 35-31 in a game that bounced between -3.5 and -4.5 all week – a dreaded “middle” for the biggest game of the year.
The books will have a definite rooting interest in the Super Bowl again this year, because for the second consecutive season, the books underestimated the support for the hot team down the stretch. New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the New York Giants in many key locations, with one influential sportsbook – the Wynn – even hanging a -4 on the Patriots.
-3.5 or -4 was not the correct line, as determined by the betting markets. The books spent the first week
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New York Giants
Teddy Covers
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Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: New England preps for New York's pass rush
01.30.2012 06:45 AM
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New England talks about what it needs to do to keep
New York's pass rush
in check. The Giants recorded 48 sacks during the regular season including two in their Week 9 win in Foxboro. In three postseason games, the G-Men have notched nine sacks. But New England allowed just one sack against Baltimore and Denver – two teams that combined for 89 sacks during the regular season.
As a quarterback, you just understand that you can't sit there and hold the ball all day," said Brady, who is slow-footed but nifty at sliding and stepping up in the pocket. "You'd better find someone and get rid of it, 'cause they're comin.' You don't want to sit back there and sort things out."
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Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Odds to win MVP award
01.27.2012 01:28 PM
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Odds on who will be named Super Bowl XLVI MVP courtesy of Pinnacle. Tom Brady – who already has two under his belt – is the favorite at -105 followed by Eli Manning at +225. Also, a listing of MVP winners dating back to 2000. Quarterbacks have won 24 times including four of the last five.
Super Bowl MVP Winners 2000-11
Year
MVP
Team
Position
2000
Kurt Warner
St. Louis Rams
Quarterback
2001
Ray Lewis
Baltimore Ravens
Linebacker
2002
Tom Brady
New England Patriots
Quarterback
2003
Dexter Jackson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Safety
2004
Tom Brady
New England Patriots
Quarterback
2005
Deion Branch
New England Patriots
Wide receiver
2006
Hines Ward
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wide receiver
2007
Peyton Manning
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
2008
Eli Manning
New York Giants
Quarterback
2009
Santonio Holmes
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wide receiver
2010
Drew Brees
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
2011
Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Super Bowl XLVI MVP Odds
Player
Odds
Tom Brady
-105
Eli Manning
+225
Field (any other player)
+668
Victor Cruz
+873
Hakeem Nicks
+1231
Aaron Hernandez
+1538
Wes Welker
+1640
Ahmad Bradshaw
+1743
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
+1743
Deion Branch
+3688
Danny Woodhead
+3688
Brandon Jacobs
+4098
Mario Manningham
+4098
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Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: Biggest bets it Super Bowl history
01.27.2012 08:02 AM
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A breakdown of some of the biggest reported bets in
Super Bowl history
.
$2.4 million
In Super Bowl XXIX, someone bet $2.4 million on the San Francisco 49ers to beat the San Diego Chargers (laying 8 to 1 odds to win $300,000) at the Mirage Hotel Sports Book in Las Vegas. Six Steve Young TD passes later, he won the bet.
$3.24 million
In 2002 a well-known Hollywood agent to the stars bet $1 million offshore that the underdog New England Patriots would cover the 14-point spread against the St. Louis Rams, and bet another $400,000 on the Patriots to win outright at 6 to 1 odds. Final Score: New England 20-17.
$1 million
In Super Bowl XXXI, a client of TheGreek.com took the Green Bay Packers for $500,000 to beat New England by more than 13½ points and the Patriots for another $500,000 to lose by fewer than 14½ points. The only way he could win both bets and avoid losing the $50,000 vigorish is if the Packers won by 14 points. Final score: Green Bay 35-21.
$1.65 million
The late legendary oddsmaker Bob Martin took a $1.65
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Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets: Brady and Manning Over/Under passing yards
01.27.2012 07:57 AM
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Offshore sportsbook CRIS has posted most of its prop bets for Super Bowl XLVI. Two of which are the over/under passing yards for New England's Tom Brady and New York's Eli Manning. Brady is currently priced at 327.5un-140 while Manning is 310.5ov-125. During the regular season meeting, Brady finished 28-of-49 for 342 yards while Manning was 20-of-39 for 250 yards. In terms of regular season passing averages, Brady was at 327.2 ypg and Manning 308.3 ypg.
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Super Bowl XLVI Gambling: All-time Super Bowl results in dome stadiums
01.26.2012 02:06 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
There have been 14 Super Bowls played in indoor dome stadiums (note that in all three instances where a retractable dome was involved, it was closed for the game). In those 14 contests (see chart below), the Louisiana Superdome has played host six times. Not surprisingly, with the advent of retractable domes, we’ve had six indoor Super Bowls in the last 12 years with each at a different venue. The perfect conditions and faster surfaces would seemingly help offenses and push more totals overs the number but the results haven’t shown that to be the overwhelming case. Here are some side and total records that have been compiled in dome stadium Super Bowls which could be considered when making game or prop bets this year:
- The second half has been higher scoring than the first half in 12 of the 14 games
- The second half has averaged 26.4 points and produced 24 or more nine times
- The first quarter has produced 3 points or less in five of the last six dome Super Bowls
- The fourth quarter has erupted for 17 or more points in that same six game stretch
- The closing total has been off of the final result by 11 or more points
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Rob Veno
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