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MLB Handicapping: Yankees pitching slated for regression

06.10.2011     10:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Joba Chamberlain's impending Tommy John surgery not only hurts New York's bullpen depth but allows us to break down exactly what we can expect from the team moving forward. To date, the Yankees have exceeded expectations on the mound. The team's ERA (3.68) is good for fourth in the American League and the bullpen has been dominant (2.93, 1st AL). But in analyzing the staff, it becomes very apparent that we can expect serious regressions in the not so distant future.

Bartolo Colon - Even if you buy into Colon's resurgence, he hasn't tossed more than 100 innings since 2005. If healthy (a big if!), he's capable of giving the team quality innings but at this stage in his career, his track record suggests his 3.39 ERA won't hold up.

Freddy Garcia - Similar situation to Colon; Garcia enjoyed a three-year “hiatus" of 129 innings in three seasons (2007-09). Last year he threw 152 innings for the White Sox and broke down after the All-Star break (5.10 ERA, 60 IP, 10 HRs, 29Ks). Read more


Tags: MLB New York Yankees




An inside look at Australian bookmaker Tom Waterhouse

06.09.2011     12:43 PM     Printer Friendly
Article about 28-year old Australian bookmaker Tom Waterhouse. Waterhouse, who is noted for taking large wagers, will often bet with other bookies in order to lower his company’s risk.


"My grandfather doesn't think there's limits. I have to manage a business. It's hard to tell your staff, 'I'm betting like a crazy man. I lost $5 million today'." Because he's learnt the hard way. A few years ago, a new client lost $1.2 million to him. To reduce the risk, Tom had bet back $800,000 with other bookies.

"At the end of the day, I thought, 'I've won $400,000. Gosh, I'll have to buy a car or go on a holiday'. I was in my 20s. I was thinking the world was an amazing place.

"I don't mind [my staff] having a bet, but if they have information about who is betting with us, and the way market's moving, it shifts the Read more








NCAAF Handicapping: Using the betting market to project success and failure

06.08.2011     12:33 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

Today’s college football case study covers teams that failed or exceeded expectations and what type of results they had the following season from a betting perspective. I went back to 2008 and 2009 and took teams that finished two games or more below or above their regular season over/under wins number. I then took their against the spread record the following season – I was hoping to find a “buy low, sell high” scenario.

Here are the overall numbers…

Teams that finished -2 or below with their O/U wins in 2008 went 75-74-1 ATS in 2009

2008 College Football Underachievers
Team 2008
O/U
RS Wins
Diff
2009 ATS
Washington
6
0
-6
7-5
Arizona State
8.5
5
-3.5
6-5
Auburn
9
5
-3.5
6-7
Michigan
7.5
3
-3.5
5-7
Purdue
7
4
-3
6-5-1
Clemson
9.5
7
-2.5
9-5
Tennessee
7.5
5
-2.5
7-6
Illinois
7
5
-2
4-8
LSU
9
7
-2
5-8
South Florida
9
7
-2
6-6
UCLA
6
4
-2
7-6
Wisconsin
9
7
-2
7-6


Teams that finished +2 or above with their O/U wins in 2008 went 57-45 ATS in 2009

2008 College Football Overachievers
Team 2008
O/U
RS Wins
Diff
2009 ATS
Georgia Tech
5.5
9
4.5
8-5
Alabama
8
12
4
9-5
Penn State
8.5
11
2.5
7-6
Michigan State
7
9
2
4-7-1
Pittsburgh
7
9
2
8-4
Texas
9
11
2
5-8-1
Texas Tech
9
11
2
7-5
Boise State
10
12
2
9-5


Teams that “overachieved” were pegged to be overvalued while teams that “underachieved” would be undervalued. Unfortunately, the results were essentially the opposite of what I was expecting.

Teams that finished -2 or below with their O/U wins in 2009 Read more


Tags: College Football




NCAA Football Handicapping: Odds to Win MAC Championship

06.02.2011     02:03 PM     Printer Friendly
The MAC East was pretty poor last season with Bowling Green, Buffalo and Akron combining for just five wins. But turnarounds are attainable in this conference, just ask Miami who won the East at 10-4/8-1 after going 1-11/1-7 in 2009. Temple is the pick to win the East at +150. The Owls play solid defense and will rely on junior running backs Bernard Pierce and Matt Brown. Former Florida offensive coordinator Steve Addazio takes over for Al Golden who took his act to Miami (FL). Temple has a very favorable schedule with contenders Toledo and Miami (OH) at home. They also skip Northern Illinois. The RedHawks are the second betting favorite in the East at +175. They weren't the prettiest team (6th in scoring, 3rd in defense in conference play) to watch last year but welcome back 17 starters. There is however the issue of the offseason coaching change. Mike Haywood left for Pittsburgh, a job he was later fired from, and former Michigan State offensive coordinator Don Treadwell took over. Miami's downfall could also be its schedule with Read more


Tags: College Football Toledo Rockers Miami-OH RedHawks Kent State Golden Flashes Bowling Green Falcons Ball State Cardinals Western Michigan Broncos Central Michigan Chippewas Akron Zips Northern Illinois Huskies Ohio Bobcats Temple Owls Buffalo Bu




Sportsmemo Posting Forum Contest - Free Service + Cash Prizes

06.02.2011     12:58 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We're pleased to announce two new contests that will be running in the Sportsmemo Posting Forum. The first is the "Daily Draw" where forum members compete each day for a shot at winning a FREE service play from the handicapper of their choice.

The second is our annual edition of the "Blackjack Baseball Contest", a 21 day shootout where the winner can claim a cash prize!

For full details visit this thread in the Sportsmemo Posting Forum. Sign up and tell a friend and you'll have a chance to win big.

Daily Draw Contest Starts Today (6/2/11)

This contest is real simple.

Rules:

1. Post any three MLB plays in the contest thread. You can choose from sides, totals or run lines. Post the Read more







NCAA Football Handicapping: Coaches set to being their third season

06.02.2011     08:49 AM     Printer Friendly
Here is a list of college football coaches set to begin their third season at their respective schools. The third year of a coaching regime is often pointed to as a year for big gains. Obviously at established programs such as Auburn and Oregon, the third year is irrelevant. But at lesser schools that had bottomed out, the first two years can be used to stockpile talent and gain experience -- assuming the coach knows what he is doing. Returning starters is another angle to look at. A coach in his third season should have a fair amount of returning starters assuming his first two recruiting classes have developed. Wyoming and Toledo fit the bill of teams that on paper should improve. Dave Christensen's Cowboys showed signs of being halfway competent at times last season and will two full season to implement his system and 17 returning starters, they are poised to make a jump. Toledo's Tim Beckman went from 5-7 to 8-5 and with 17 returning starters back, has a good shot at competing for a MAC title.

NCAA Football coaches set to start their third season
School
Coach
R. Starters Off/Def
2010 Record
2010 ATS Record
Auburn
Gene Chizik
3/4
14-0
10-4
Mississippi State
Dan Mullen
8/7
9-4
7-6
Purdue
Danny Hope
7/9
4-8
5-7
Iowa State
Paul Rhoads
5/7
5-7
5-7
Boston College
Frank Spaziani
8/7
7-6
6-7
Oregon
Chip Kelly
6/5
12-1
7-5-1
Washington
Steve Sarkisian
6/7
7-6
6-6-1
Syracuse
Doug Marrone
7/5
8-5
8-5
Wyoming
Dave Christensen
8/9
3-9
5-7
New Mexico
Mike Locksley
7/9
1-11
4-8
Utah State
Gary Andersen
8/5
4-8
5-7
New Mexico State
DeWayne Walker
7/7
2-10
4-8
Army
Rich Ellerson
6/4
7-6
6-7
Bowling Green
Dave Clawson
6/7
2-10
5-7
Toledo
Tim Beckman
9/8
8-5
7-5-1
Eastern Michigan
Ron English
6/7
2-10
5-7




Tags: College Football Wyoming Cowboys Toledo Rockets




NCAA Football Handicapping: Odds to Win Big Ten Championship

06.01.2011     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
The Big Ten welcomes the addition of Nebraska and a two-division format for 2011. Each team will play eight conference games; five against their division and three against the opposing division.

Nebraska is a -250 favorite to win the Legends Division and +150 to take the Big Ten crown. The Cornhuskers drew a fairly difficult schedule by playing Leaders Division contenders Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State. Iowa (+300) and Michigan State (+350) are also expected to be in the mix. The Spartans have arguably the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten with road trips to Ohio State, Nebraska and Iowa as well as a home tilt against Wisconsin.

In the Leaders Division, Ohio State's stock plummeted following head coach Jim Tressel's resignation. Tack on the uncertainly of player eligibility and it is easy to see why oddsmakers list the Buckeyes as the third betting favorite in the division. Penn State now becomes the de facto favorite at +150 followed by Wisconsin at +175. The Badgers return only 10 starters from last Read more


Tags: College Football Nebraska Cornhuskers Iowa Hawkeyes Minnesota Golden Gophers Michigan State Spartans Michigan Wolverines Northwestern Wildcats Illinois Fighting Illini Wisconsin Badgers Penn State Nittany Lions Purdue Boilermakers Indiana Hoosi




NCAA Football Handicapping: Odds to Win Big XII Championship

05.31.2011     08:52 AM     Printer Friendly
Oklahoma (-300) is priced as the betting favorite to win this year’s Big XII Championship. The Sooners are also favored at most offshore sportsbooks to win the BCS Championship. Texas A&M is projected to return a conference-high 17 starters. The Aggies are one of only three teams to play five true conference home games. As a result, A&M (+250) is the second betting option to win the conference crown. Not much respect issued to Texas at over 6-1 odds. Oklahoma State is listed at 5-1.

Due to the departure of Nebraska (Big Ten) and Colorado (PAC-12), the Big XII has eliminated the two-division format. With 10 teams in the league, each squad will play one another once during the regular season. Prior to the change, teams played five games against their division and three against the opposing division. Missouri and Oklahoma State are the only schools to have a bye week during conference play. No team has a bye week after Week 5 (October 1st).

With a nine-game format, teams will play an uneven amount Read more


Tags: College Football Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma State Cowboys Texas Longhorns Texas A&M Aggies Texas Tech Red Raiders Baylor Bears Missouri Tigers Kansas State Wildcats Kansas Jayhawks Iowa State Cyclones Big XII




Betting the NBA Finals: Miami owns key matchup advantages

05.31.2011     07:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For Part 1 of Teddy's NBA Finals Betting Breakdown, click here.

Road Rules
These two teams are here because they can win tough playoff games in hostile environments. The Mavs clinched their first round series with a SU Game 6 win in Portland. They swept the Lakers at the Staples Center in the second round and swept the Thunder in Oklahoma City with upset wins in Games 3 and 4 of that series as well.

The numbers don’t lie. So far, here in the postseason, Dallas is 5-2 SU, 6-0-1 ATS catching points on the road. I don’t put much stock into regular season results at this time of the year, but it’s surely worth noting that Dallas won SU in Miami on their lone previous visit to South Beach.

Miami has been just as good away from home. They effectively ended their first round series with the 76ers by Read more


Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks Miami Heat Teddy Covers




Tressel firing causes stir in betting market

05.31.2011     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
In case you didn't hear, Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel's kitchen got a little bit too hot, so he got out. Always quick to throw up a prop bet, BoDog posted odds on the next head coach of the Buckeyes for the 2012 season.

Bo Pelini 10-1
Jon Gruden 3-1
Mark Dantonio 12-1
Mark Stoops 9-4
Urban Meyer 3-2

There could be an opening at North Dakota State and Gruden would be listed as a candidate. At one point he was the betting favorite for the Dallas Cowboys and Miami (FL) within the span of a month.

As for the Buckeyes, it will be interesting to see if they can maintain their dominance against the spread. Read more


Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes



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