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NFL Betting Analysis: Trying to make sense of the Arizona Cardinals

09.17.2012     12:31 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On today's Sportsmemo Podcast, Teddy Covers mentioned that dating back to last year, the Arizona Cardinals are on a quiet 9-2 straight up run. And part of the reason it hasn't grabbed people's attention is that they've been doing it with defense. During that 11-game span, the Cardinals allowed 18.1 ppg and 326.7 ypg. The slate wasn't loaded with high-powered offenses but there were a few with Dallas, Philadelphia and most recently New England.

Now, Arizona was fortunate. Four of their nine wins came in overtime and the biggest victory was by six points – thanks to a 99-yard punt return…again in OT. Arizona doesn't even have a full 1 ppg advantage over those 11 opponents and were outgained and out first-downed overall. But the most mind blowing stat is that in those 11 games, Arizona won the turnover battle just once! In six of those games, they LOST the turnover battle and still managed to go 4-2. So we have an 11-game sample (which is nothing to go crazy over), a team that gave up more yards, more first downs, had a miniscule 0.9 ppg scoring advantage, was -10 in turnover margin, AND went 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS! That brain of yours starting to Read more


Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals Andrew Lange




College Foobtall Betting: SEC News and Notes Week 3

09.17.2012     11:22 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It wouldn’t have mattered if Tyler Wilson had played for Arkansas this week against Alabama, as the Crimson Tide overwhelmed the Razorbacks, 52-0. Wilson might have kept the goose egg off the scoreboard, but that’s about it. Arkansas now faces questions about whether or not it quit at the end of the game and the beleaguered defense has allowed 1,300 yards in three games. Alabama gave up just 137 yards and pitched its second straight shutout.

Also impressing this week was the Florida Gators, earning their first win over a ranked team in the Will Muschamp era. Florida piled up 555 yards and outscored Tennessee 27-6 in the second half en route to a 37-20 win. Jeff Driskel played his best game as a Gator and appears to be settling into the job. It will be interesting to see if the Gators build on this offensive performance. They still ran the ball 68% of the time and have attempted only 58 passes in three games.

South Carolina and Georgia remained unbeaten and the Gators’ principle competition in the SEC East. Carolina hammered UAB, 49-6, with Connor Shaw and Dylan Thompson splitting time at quarterback. Georgia pasted Florida Atlantic, Read more


Tags: College Football SEC Brent Crow




Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: A look at second-year NFL quarterbacks and their teams

09.17.2012     06:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I focused on the five rookie starting quarterbacks behind center on opening day. This Sunday, continuing the theme, I spent the afternoon watching the five quarterbacks drafted in the first 35 picks last year, all of whom are now starters. I tried to evaluate each QB within the context of his team – they can't be successful without the complimentary pieces of the equation surrounding them, both on offense and on defense. Here are my thoughts:

Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton was the only rookie QB to lead his team to the playoffs last year, and he’s definitely right there with Cam Newton as the best of the 2011 draft class right now. He’s got great footwork in the pocket; nimble on his feet while sidestepping pressure. And when we consider how much pressure he was under – the Bengals injury riddled line was really struggling unable to consistently run or pass block – Dalton’s performance was even that much more impressive.

This team is loaded with WR talent; not just AJ Green, although Green is really developing into a Top 10 NFL receiver. Armon Binns made plays all over the field today; Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Gambling: QB situations at Purdue, Indiana and Utah impact totals

09.14.2012     01:44 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There are going to be quarterback changes for teams all season long due to either injury or ineffectiveness. Those switches will cause bettors and oddsmakers alike to adjust their stance on how much or how little impact the new quarterback will have on his particular team’s offensive point production. This week we are faced with three such instances and in this column I’ll take a look at how to react to each of them.

Indiana – The Hoosiers lost the services of sophomore starter Tre Roberson last week in the second quarter of their game at Massachusetts. Prior to his season ending injury last week (broken leg) Roberson ripped off a pair of touchdown runs covering 50 and 39 yards giving him three rushing scores for the season to go along with his two passing TD’s. His impressive statistics were built on inferior defensive opponents but IU will certainly miss his dual threat ability to keep defenses honest. In for Roberson steps sophomore Cam Coffman who threw the ball very well during off season camp and he’s begun the regular season by going 16-of-22, 159 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. HC Kevin Wilson’s up-tempo, spread Read more


Tags: College Football Utah Utes Purdue Boilermakers Indiana Hoosiers Rob Veno




College Football Betting Stock Watch: Look for Nebraska's defense to bounce back

09.14.2012     11:45 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Buy the Nebraska Huskers – The Huskers were embarrassed last week in losing to UCLA 36-30 and much of the blame was placed on the defense.  Through two games the vaunted “Black Shurts” rank 115th in the nation in rushing defense and 96th overall.  However, there’s respect for NU’s defensive coaching staff lead by head coach Bo Pelini.  This week new defensive coordinator John Papuchis stated, “If we have to work 24 hours a day for the next seven days or, really, for the next three months to figure it out; we're going to figure it out.''  The talent is there for the Huskers as they’ll try to insert more speed and athleticism to the stop unit.  Sometimes a wake-up call is needed and it was certainly delivered by UCLA last Saturday night.  Offensively, the Huskers look solid with junior quarterback Taylor Martinez at the controls.  He worked extremely hard in the off-season to improve his mechanics and overall game.  He sizzled in their first game completing over 75% of his passes as the offense rolled up 632 yards.  While not as sturdy last week, 30 points and 6.6 yards per play Read more


Tags: College Football Nebraska Cornhuskers Big Ten Erin Rynning




CFL Free Betting Pick: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders

09.14.2012     10:36 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Winnipeg at Calgary -9.5 O/U 52
Recommendation: Under


Both of these teams have shown glimpses of playing solid defense this season but I think we'll see them step up their game tonight and help us cash a ticket on the UNDER.

The Winnipeg offense is ranked dead last in points and yards and they've only averaged 15 points on the road. QB Joey Elliott labored in his one and only road start in Saskatchewan as the Blue Bombers offense was shutout in that game. I'd expect some improvement from them here but at the same time I don't expect this team to be scoring points in bunches against a Calgary defense that has come on strong during their current three-game win streak. They surrendered just 10, 23 and 18 points in those games as we've seen the likes of LB Juwan Simpson and DL Charleston Hughes lead the way with dominant performances.

I don't expect Calgary to have as much success moving the football in this game either. The Stamps are off back-to-back wins against their rival Edmonton and usually we see offenses take a hit from a performance standpoint in what is somewhat of a flat spot. QB Kevin Glenn needs a strong running game with Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




College Football Betting Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks

09.14.2012     07:46 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Alabama at Arkansas
Brent Crow's Recommendation:
Arkansas
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -15.5 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Alabama -20 O/U 54
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -13.5

A week ago Alabama would have been a seven-point favorite in this game, but after Arkansas imploded in last week’s 34-31 loss to UL-Monroe, the Crimson Tide are now nearly three touchdown road chalk in an SEC game. Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson got hurt last week and is questionable for this week’s game, but this pointspread may be an overadjustment. Wilson has practiced this week, but head coach John L. Smith said that he has not been cleared to play and the decision is not in his hands. Wilson will play if he is cleared by team doctors, and with him practicing this week, I expect to see him on the field.

The bigger concern for Arkansas may be its defense. The Hogs have allowed 50 Read more


Tags: College Football Alabama Crimson Tide Arkansas Razorbacks SEC Brent Crow




College Football Betting Preview: Texas A&M Aggies at SMU Mustangs

09.14.2012     07:36 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas A&M at SMU
Andrew Lange's Recommendation:
Texas A&M
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - FSN
CRIS Opener:
Texas A&M -10.5 O/U 53
CRIS Current: Texas A&M -12 O/U 61
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Texas A&M -8

Last year, SMU came into the season with five senior offensive linemen and the most career starts of any team in the country. In Week 1, they were absolutely destroyed by Texas A&M 46-14. In that game, the Aggies recorded eight sacks and helped cause two interceptions. This year, SMU has one of the least experienced offensive lines in the country and faces an A&M squad that record eight sacks and held Florida to 3.0 ypc last week. SMU’s offense is noted for being able to pick apart week defenses. Unlikely the case on Saturday.

As we saw in last year's meeting and in Week 1 against Baylor, SMU is prone to sloppy play, mistakes, and an inability to make stops. The Read more


Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies SEC SMU Mustangs C-USA Andrew Lange




College Football ATS Analysis: A quick look at Week 3 line moves

09.13.2012     02:53 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We mentioned in our College Football Betting Recap earlier this week that big lines moves haven't fared well this season. Using CRIS's lines, if you bet the opener on games that moved three points or more you went 8-14 ATS (7-15 w/ closing line). We've already seen a handful of significant moves this week – some of which injury related like Alabama/Arkansas and Florida/Tennessee.

CRIS Opener/CRIS Current
Florida State opened -25 vs. Wake Forest...now -28
UConn opened pk at Maryland...now -3 (-105)
Alabama opened -15.5 at Arkansas...now -20
Bowling Green opened +6.5 at Toledo...now +3.5
Tennessee opened pk vs. Florida...now -3
Florida Atlantic opened +44.5 at Georgia...now +41.5




Tags: College Football




If coaches could bet, Brady Hoke would probably grab some UMass +45.5

09.13.2012     12:31 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Massachusetts at Michigan -45.5 O/U 54

Michigan head coach Brady Hoke just gave out a free play. Bet UMass +45.5.


"That’s ridiculous,” he said this morning, during his weekly appearance on the “Stoney and Bill Show” on WXYT-FM (97.1). “All you’ve got to do is go back two years, and it was 42-37 here in Ann Arbor. That gets your attention. The one thing we try to do every week: It’s about us, how we prepare on a weekly basis, how we practice. When you look at it that way, and that’s the way we look at it every week, we’re getting ready to get into the Big Ten schedule soon. We’ve got a lot of improvement we’ve got to do.”






Tags: College Football UMass Minutemen MAC Michigan Wolverines Big Ten



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