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College Basketball Handicapping: Notre Dame continues pointspread slide

01.22.2013     01:52 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish made it four straight disappointing performances with a dismal 63-47 home loss to the Georgetown Hoyas Monday night in a game many of you watched on ESPN. TV generally doesn’t talk about pointspreads. Here’s a quick look at what Notre Dame has done against expectations during this four-game slump.

Notre Dame (-8.5) lost to Connecticut 65-58 (missed by 15.5)

Notre Dame (-7) lost to St. John’s 67-63 (missed by 11)

Notre Dame (-11.5) barely beat Rutgers 69-66 (missed by 8.5)

Notre Dame (-6) lost to Georgetown 63-47 (missed by 22)

Notre Dame’s strength of schedule pre-conference was fairly weak. The media ranked them based on their won-lost record…because it takes longer than five seconds to look up a schedule and nobody has time for that when they’re all so busy fact-checking their feature stories.

In those four games above, the Irish are playing at nothing resembling Dance Read more

Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish Stat Intelligence

NBA Handicapping: Los Angeles Lakers Lose Again, Washington Wizards Suddenly Magical

01.22.2013     07:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Since we’re trying to get a read on where the Los Angeles Lakers stand in the big picture right now, and we just updated the estimated Power Ratings earlier tonight, this seemed like a great time to use those ratings to get a sense of the Lakers' current level of play.

We can take recent victory margins...look at the opponent’s rating...adjust for home court...and abracadabra, we have a quick and dirty estimate for the level the Lakers are playing at.

Dwight Howard returned to the lineup five games ago. That’s ideal because it will give us a median!

The Lakers were 17 points better than Cleveland (72), which equates to an 89

The Lakers were 13 points better than Milwaukee (78), which equates to a 91

The Lakers were 12 points WORSE than Miami (85), which equates to a 73

The Lakers were 2 points WORSE than Toronto (76), which equates to a 74

The Lakers were 9 points WORSE than Chicago (79), which equates to a Read more

Tags: NBA Los Angeles Lakers Washington Wizards Stat Intelligence

A perfect match: Gambling and the Super Bowl

01.21.2013     12:34 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Publicly, the NFL is among one of the staunchest opponents of legalized gambling. Former commissioner Paul Tagliabue and current commissioner Roger Goodell were instrumental in getting the anti gaming ‘Illegal Internet Gambling Prohibition Act’ attached to the Port Security Bill. The NFL has taken this stance despite the fact that its enormous popularity is, in no small part, due to the prevalence of betting on games.

The hypocrisy of the NFL in regards to betting is almost laughable. The facts, as you will see, clearly show that the league was founded by gamblers for gamblers. From the NFL’s first television appearance in 1939 through the current TV deal that pumps more than three billion dollars per year into the league coffers, the NFL’s popularity rests upon the shoulders of those who wager on the outcome of the games.

Here in the 21st century, the NFL is the most popular and profitable sport in the. NFL owners are among the richest men in the world; franchises are bought and sold for more than half a billion dollars. However, the league’s humble origins were anything but the extravagant bonanza that is the NFL today. Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVII

College Basketball Handicapping: Results from Saturday's marquee matchups

01.20.2013     06:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

With football out of the way, college basketball made sure it had a blockbuster schedule to capture the hearts and eyeballs of America’s sports fans. Yesterday’s string of marquee matchups definitely had a March Madness feel to it…which means it was a good early primer for those hoping to handicap the tournament in a couple of months.

I grabbed the key stats from the biggest games, with an eye toward starting to build profiles of teams and their tournament potential. Gut check games like we had today can be great indicators for March because strengths are neutralized, and weaknesses exposed. How you bully teams disappears when you can’t bully! Developments today will likely foreshadow issues that will come up in other big games…in the conference tournaments…and then once the Dance starts.

I’ll go in order of the poll rankings. But, because poll rankings can be off, I’ll also include the numbers coming into today from the most Read more

Tags: College Basketball Stal Intelligence

NBA Handicapping: Schedule has Houston Rockets running on fumes

01.19.2013     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

You’re about to see what fatigue looks like statistically!

Last week we talked about the brutal schedule stretch that was coming up for the Houston Rockets. They had just defeated the Los Angeles Lakers. But, they were about to embark on a two-week odyssey that would see them play two different four-game-in-five-night stretches with the vast majority of action on the road.

We then suggested the team hit a wall in the fourth quarter in New Orleans the next night (when they were outscored 29-10 to blow a big lead). Then, we monitored developments through the week as the Rockets continued to lose. Tonight’s 105-95 loss at Indiana continued the story. And, I’ve come up with a way that may be the best illustration of what happens to the Rockets when they get tired (for other teams, it may show up in other categories).

First, a quick review of the gauntlet to this point…

Last Tuesday: Big Win over Lakers

Last Wednesday: Died in Read more

Tags: NBA Houston Rockets Stat Intelligence

NHL Gambling Trends: Shortened season goal scoring

01.18.2013     10:14 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
Many people have asked me, how will the shortened season impact overall goal scoring in the NHL?  Will we see trend UNDER or OVER the total?  Well look no further than the last time the NHL had a shortened 48-game season back in 1994-95.  Scoring was down half a goal per game compared to the season prior.  Here is a list of the 1990's goals per game average:

1990 6.91
1991 6.96
1992 7.25
1993 6.48
1994* 5.97
1995 6.29
1996 5.83
1997 5.28
1998 5.27
1999 5.49

Scoring immediately dropped in the lockout shortened season and then saw a bounce back in production closer to normal early 90's scoring.  It is important to note the big drop off in the late 90's is attributed to the trap style of play teams started to employ.  Players have been quoted from the 1994 season saying that every game felt like a playoff game.  Teams cannot afford to have an off night or off week in a shortened season with every team sprinting towards the finish line.  Competitive games and a playoff type atmosphere is a major variable for games to be low scoring.  If history is to repeat Read more

Tags: NHL Sammy P

NFL Handicapping: Betting Market Acting Like Patriots Money ISN'T Coming

01.18.2013     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There was a startling development Thursday in the legal betting markets regarding Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the favored New England Patriots and underdog Baltimore Ravens.

New England had been favored by 9 points. That line had fallen to a pretty solid 8.5 by midday. Then, it was a solid 8 by night time as I was writing this. That may not strike many of you as a big deal. After all, 9 and 8 aren’t common numbers. But, if you know the markets, it was actually a VERY big deal, because it may be suggesting in dramatic fashion that oddsmakers and sharps no longer expect a flood of New England money over the weekend.

For a second…as we walk through this…start with the premise that New England money IS coming. Squares (the betting public) generally wait until the weekend to bet. Squares typically bet favorites. Squares have established in the past that they like betting on marquee teams like the New England Patriots. Squares have also established that they like Read more

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Gambling Free Play: Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini

01.17.2013     11:07 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Northwestern at Illinois -10.5 O/U 131.5
Recommendation: Illinois

I don’t lay big points often but tonight’s game sets up as a great opportunity to support an Illinois team that is obviously not at all happy after a pair of blowout losses. The Illini lost at home to Minnesota, 84-67, and were crushed on the road by Wisconsin, 74-51. Illinois is now sitting at just 1-3 in Big Ten play and is in desperate need of a confidence inducing performance. I expect that we will see a motivated and focused home team tonight.

Aside from a road win at woeful Penn State, Northwestern hasn’t exactly stepped up in class against the better teams in the Big Ten with the Wildcats losing 94-66 at home to Michigan, 69-51 at Minnesota and a 70-50 home loss to Iowa on the weekend. The heart of Northwestern’s problems is the absence of senior forward Drew Crawford who is out for the year with a shoulder injury. The Wildcats have struggled Read more

Tags: College Basketball Northwestern Wildcats Illinois Fighting Illini Ian Cameron

NFL Handicapping: Why The Atlanta Falcons are +4

01.17.2013     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There’s a growing chorus in the handicapping/betting world that the line has over-adjusted in Sunday’s San Francisco/Atlanta matchup for the NFC Championship…with little apparent justification for the current number of San Francisco -4.

Let’s review a few keys.

*Sharps aren’t betting the 49ers at -4. But, they sure loved them at a field goal or less. It’s hard to know for sure from the outside how much of the moves beyond the three can be linked to sharp sentiment or square sentiment (the public). What’s clear is that sharps weren’t thinking the line should be pick-em or -1. Sharps had the 49ers at least 6 or 6.5 points better on a neutral field. Sharps stopped betting the Niners at a number that represented 7 points better on a neutral field.

*The advanced analytic stuff I’ve seen around the web supports that passion at an affordable price. Measures are showing that San Francisco has a much better offense when you adjust for Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers Stat Intelligence

College Basketball Betting: Fresno State leaning heavily on freshmen in tough Mountain West

01.16.2013     12:02 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
There have been times this season Fresno State's men's basketball team has had three and even four freshmen on the floor at the same time. That’s a tough way to go in the Mountain West, which is rated the second (Sagarin) or third ( toughest conference in the country.

Coach Rodney Terry knows this, often using the refrain, "It's not going to happen overnight." The youth and inexperience may have cost FSU a win in the final minutes at No. 16 San Diego State last week.

Four freshmen have logged a total of 1,010 minutes already and it could be more, considering guard Marvelle Harris (373 minutes) has played 20 minutes or less four times, center Robert Upshaw (234 minutes) missed the first three games coming back from a knee injury, point guard Aaron Anderson (224 minutes) didn't make his first start until the 12th game of the season, and forward/center Tanner Giddings (179 minutes) did not play in one game and logged less than 10 minutes in five others.

Fresno State is getting more than twice as many minutes from freshman than any other Mountain West school except for UNLV. While 82.4% of the Rebels freshman minutes have been Read more

Tags: College Basketball Fresno State Bulldogs Rob Veno Mountain West


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