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MLB Gambling News: Which is the Best Division in Baseball?

07.02.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Another topic fitting for our lawyer/judge conversation of late. Today SB Nation posted an article called “The NL Central, Baseball’s Best Division.”

That seemed odd, considering that:

*Cincinnati fans are up in arms about how the Reds were squashed in their recent matchups with Oakland and Texas from the superior American League. The Redlegs went 1-4, getting outclassed on the scoreboard 23-11

*St. Louis fans were licking their own wounds after going 1-5 vs. the same two American League teams. Remember that the Cards were swept at home by the Rangers last weekend, before dropping two of three to the A’s this weekend.

I mean…NOW’s the time you want to make the case that the NL Central is the best in baseball?! The American League has established superiority for several years now. Both the Reds Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Handicapping: Notes for All 30 Teams Amidst "Four-Max" Updates

07.01.2013     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, back with updates for the four-max MLB averages we’ve been studying the past few weeks here on these pages. If you’re new to the site, we’re trying to rate offenses for a combination of volume and consistency in terms of their ability to score in the first five innings. This was designed with market propositions for “first half” baseball action in mind…but the approach also works as a strong general way to rank offenses because you’re seeing how the manager’s preferred lineups are doing against opposing rotations.


*Only count runs scored in the first five innings.

*Use a cut-off four runs (hence the term, “four-max”) to help take out the influence that big outliers may have…and to create a median of 2 (0-1-2-3-4) that best approximates the reality of early scoring.

For some teams I’ll use “road only” numbers because they play in extreme home parks that Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more

Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence

MLB Betting Recap: Friday Night News and Notes

06.29.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw together some notes after all. Let’s take the games in rotation order…

*Cole of Pittsburgh got another win. He’s proving to be an interesting pitcher to handicap. He throws 100 mph but doesn’t get strikeouts at a rate you’d expect. At least not so far. Only 3 K’s tonight in 6 innings. He got rocked in the first inning…but then the Pirates scored a zillion runs off the latest Brewers desperation pitcher. The Pirates “four-max” offense (scoring totals in the first five innings with a peak cut-off right at four) the last six games is 4-4-3-4-2-4. They continue a relative explosion from an extended slump several weeks ago.

*Nolasco of Florida has been featured in a lot of trade talk of late. He’s so inconsistent…you can’t be sure that whoever gets him is going to be happy. I’ve arranged his first half runs allowed totals from best to worst. Note how few games are right at a Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

Canadian Football League Betting Free Play: B.C. Lions at Calgary Stampeders

06.28.2013     09:29 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
B.C. +3.5 at Calgary O/U 52
Recommendation: B.C.

There are some extenuating circumstances heading into tonight’s matchup between the BC Lions and Calgary Stampeders. The major one being the recent flooding that has plagued the city of Calgary. On one hand, the Stamps might be bolstered with energy and emotion to play hard and win tonight for the people that have suffered through so much over the last week. Perhaps a solid performance can give them some temporary relief from the devastating flood situation. On the other hand, Calgary’s practice and preparation for this game was altered a bit due to the flood and it leaves a legitimate question; how well prepared and focused can Calgary be with everything that is going on around them?

That is a very real debate I have about this game and it is why my wager is a smaller, free play variety one in this game. However, putting the flood situation aside for one moment, I believe BC is the better of these teams and will be the better team come the end of the season making them worthy of support catching a FG Read more

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron

MLB Betting Free Pick: Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles

06.27.2013     10:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Cleveland (Kluber) +120 at Baltimore (Gonzalez) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Cleveland

The Indians have been a streaky team all year, and they’re streaking in a positive direction right now.  They went 18-4 from late April through mid-May, but followed that up with a miserable 4-17 stretch.  Now the Tribe have turned that around, 10-4 in their last 14 ballgames, including four straight series wins and six wins at an underdog price during that span.  Meanwhile, the Orioles are slumping, losers of five of their last six.  And it’s surely worth noting that the vast majority of profits that Baltimore has earned this year have come in the road underdog role, not the home favorite’s role.

Cleveland’s Corey Kluber has notched the win in each of his last three starts, allowing only four runs in 21.2 innings during that span.  His control has been masterful: 69 strikeouts compared to only 13 walks.  And with a .327 BABIP and a 2.98 xFIP, Read more

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Baltimore Orioles Teddy Covers

MLB Gambling Notes: Cincinnati Reds Still Struggling vs. Quality Teams

06.27.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Cincinnati Reds just got swept in a quick two-game series in Oakland, losing by a combined score of 12-3. That continues a trend we’ve been discussing on and off this season. The Reds have played very poorly (for a contender) against teams at .500 or better, while absolutely annihilating teams who are below .500.

Let’s run the numbers for the Reds and the other NL Central contenders for some context…

Records vs. .500 or Better

Pittsburgh 18-14

St. Louis 18-15

Cincinnati 15-26

Pittsburgh and St. Louis at least belong in the SuperLeague, even if they’re not dominating within the “best vs. best” matchups. The Reds are showing very poorly in comparison.

Records vs. Under .500

Cincinnati 30-8

St. Louis 30-15

Pittsburgh 30-16

This is why the Reds are in the divisional (and Wildcard) race. They’re doing a great job of taking Read more

Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence

College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings (w/ Mid-Majors)

06.26.2013     10:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I know I promised some baseball for the late Tuesday report. Ended up spending the evening logging college football stuff out of Athlon. Turned into quite the filibuster! So it's midnight ET, and it's probably better to just tweak a prior football report. I re-checked the "Game of the Year" lines from the Golden Nugget so I could add in the mid-majors that were missed in the earlier estimate of market power ratings.

Mid-Majors (the handful mentioned in GOY lines)

Boise State 68 (Mountain West)

Tulsa 63 (Conference USA)

San Diego State 60 (Mountain West)

Navy 55 (Independent)

Nevada 53 (Mountain West)

Colorado State 50 (Mountain West)

Southern Miss 49 (Conference USA)

UNLV 48 (Mountain West)

Central Michigan 47 (MAC)

Army 46 (Independent)

We have a few new readers and twitter followers (@jefffogle) Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting: Wisconsin Badgers loaded with experience

06.25.2013     02:16 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wisconsin boasts the most returning lettermen (83.87%) of any team BCS team according to Phil Steele. The Badgers will be playing under first-year head coach Gary Andersen (Utah State) this season. On the flip side, Big Ten foe Penn State ranks 125th (53.29%) out of 126. As noted by, last year, the top three BCS teams in terms of returning lettermen (Florida, Oregon, and Stanford) all earned BCS bowl berths. Notre Dame, however, ranked 121st, and played Alabama (104th) for the National Championship.

Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten

Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron readies for 2013 CFL Season

06.25.2013     12:15 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
The 2013 Canadian Football League season is just two days away and I plan on writing a weekly blog which can be found right here on throughout the campaign. It will recap the important events of the previous week’s slate and how it will impact things moving forward from a betting perspective. For today’s debut blog, I thought it would be a good idea to discuss some of the differences and nuances between the CFL and the football that most of you are familiar with in the United States. There are several rule differences between the CFL and NFL that should be mentioned to help everyone get familiar with the league especially since there will be plenty of CFL action televised in the United States this season on ESPN2 and NBC Sports Network. I’ll also talk a bit about my own keys to success in handicapping the CFL.

CFL vs. NFL: The key differences between two styles of football
The biggest difference right off the bat is that CFL offenses only get three downs to convert a first down compared to four downs in the NFL. Because of that the CFL is generally a more wide open, passing oriented league. The CFL plays on a 110-yard Read more

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron


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