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College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings (w/ Mid-Majors)

06.26.2013     10:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I know I promised some baseball for the late Tuesday report. Ended up spending the evening logging college football stuff out of Athlon. Turned into quite the filibuster! So it's midnight ET, and it's probably better to just tweak a prior football report. I re-checked the "Game of the Year" lines from the Golden Nugget so I could add in the mid-majors that were missed in the earlier estimate of market power ratings.

Mid-Majors (the handful mentioned in GOY lines)

Boise State 68 (Mountain West)

Tulsa 63 (Conference USA)

San Diego State 60 (Mountain West)

Navy 55 (Independent)

Nevada 53 (Mountain West)

Colorado State 50 (Mountain West)

Southern Miss 49 (Conference USA)

UNLV 48 (Mountain West)

Central Michigan 47 (MAC)

Army 46 (Independent)

We have a few new readers and twitter followers (@jefffogle) Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting: Wisconsin Badgers loaded with experience

06.25.2013     02:16 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wisconsin boasts the most returning lettermen (83.87%) of any team BCS team according to Phil Steele. The Badgers will be playing under first-year head coach Gary Andersen (Utah State) this season. On the flip side, Big Ten foe Penn State ranks 125th (53.29%) out of 126. As noted by, last year, the top three BCS teams in terms of returning lettermen (Florida, Oregon, and Stanford) all earned BCS bowl berths. Notre Dame, however, ranked 121st, and played Alabama (104th) for the National Championship.

Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten

Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron readies for 2013 CFL Season

06.25.2013     12:15 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
The 2013 Canadian Football League season is just two days away and I plan on writing a weekly blog which can be found right here on throughout the campaign. It will recap the important events of the previous week’s slate and how it will impact things moving forward from a betting perspective. For today’s debut blog, I thought it would be a good idea to discuss some of the differences and nuances between the CFL and the football that most of you are familiar with in the United States. There are several rule differences between the CFL and NFL that should be mentioned to help everyone get familiar with the league especially since there will be plenty of CFL action televised in the United States this season on ESPN2 and NBC Sports Network. I’ll also talk a bit about my own keys to success in handicapping the CFL.

CFL vs. NFL: The key differences between two styles of football
The biggest difference right off the bat is that CFL offenses only get three downs to convert a first down compared to four downs in the NFL. Because of that the CFL is generally a more wide open, passing oriented league. The CFL plays on a 110-yard Read more

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapping: Visualizing Outside Your Sample

06.25.2013     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Last time I said I’d try to talk more about pitchers. Something interesting happened in terms of a handicapping danger in tonight's Toronto/Tampa Bay game that makes a point everyone should remember in all sports. This is particularly true a few weeks into the football season…so it’s good to get the theme on the table now during the summer.

Esmil Rogers was making his fifth start of the season for the Toronto Blue Jays. His “first half” runs allowed in his prior four starts had been 0-1-1-0. Great job! It’s only four samples though, so you have to be careful not to get locked in to too tight an assessment of his potential. He’s not THAT good. He was a 27-year old middle reliever a few weeks ago with poor career numbers.

After tonight’s game, the line is 0-1-1-0-4, because he allowed three early home runs in his first bad start.

Jeremy Hellickson of Tampa Bay was coming at things from the other direction in a much larger Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

College Football Betting: Expectations sky high for Ohio State Buckeyes

06.24.2013     02:26 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
It looks like oddsmakers are fairly high on the Ohio State Buckeyes heading into the 2013 campaign. Off last year's 12-0 mark with as many as nine starters back on offense, OSU is a favored to win the Big Ten Leaders Division (-465) and overall conference crown (-110). They are also second behind Alabama to win the BCS National Championship (+800). But nowhere are the Buckeyes' expectations more pronounce than the Golden Nugget's Game of the Year lines. Check 'em out...

Golden Nugget GOY (Openers)
San Diego St @ Ohio State (-21.5)
Ohio State (-21) @ California
Wisconsin @ Ohio State (-11, 45)
Ohio State (-8) @ Northwestern
Iowa @ Ohio State (-23)
Penn State @ Ohio State (-16)
Ohio State (-17) @ Purdue
Ohio State (-23) @ Illinois
Indiana @ Ohio State (-25)
Ohio State (-6, 50.5) @ Michigan

Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Quick Four-Max Notes on all 30 Offenses

06.24.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’m back with updated numbers from the “four-max” approach of evaluating the volume and consistency of Major League offenses for those of you trying to handicap 5-inning propositions. They generally paint an accurate overall picture of offensive quality too since we’re looking at what teams do with their starting lineups against rotation pitchers on other teams.

I had planned on waiting to post until the first five innings were complete in the Texas/St. Louis game on ESPN…but that’s in a rain delay as I’m typing this. No reason to wait a couple of hours (or more) waiting for that to work itself out. Let’s jump into the numbers.

The keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings

*Stop at 4 for any team in an individual game so volume isn’t polluted by superfluous runs against a guy who didn’t have anything, or against that guy and the lousy long reliever who replaced Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Handicapping: 5-Inning Tie Percentage by Stadium

06.20.2013     08:37 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence (a must follow on Twitter)

One of the fun challenges of trying to make smart selections on 5-inning Major League baseball props involves deciding whether or not to lay a half a run with less vigorish on favorites…or to take a half run for a less favorable payoff on underdogs.

Quick examples:

*A favorite in the -170 range might strike you as kind of pricey, even if there are clear edges that would suggest superiority within a five-inning sprint (and those would obviously have to exist for a team to be favored by that much!). You have the option of instead taking that favorite -0.5 runs and laying only around -120. Feels a lot cheaper because -120’s much better than -170. But, is it? How much is that half a run worth?

*An underdog in the +120 to +130 range will often make sense to be competitive within the first five. Does “competitive mean a lot of 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 ties? If so, Read more

Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence

MLB Handicapping: Colorado's Roy Oswalt back on the bump

06.20.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Colorado (Oswalt) at Washington (Zimmermann) -170 O/U 7

Roy Oswalt makes his return tonight in Washington after making five starts at Double-A (33.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, 25 Ks, 7 BBs, 5 HRs). According to one report, Oswalt's fastball was "consistently at 92 mph" and got as high as 95. In another, Oswalt himself admitted he more of a "91-92" guy and no longer "94." Not sure he's got the stuff to succeed in Coors Field at this stage in his career but tonight's matchup is one he should be able to handle.

"He's always a competitive guy, a tough at-bat," Weiss said. "He's a nice piece to have. He's ready to go. His velocity is real good and throwing all his pitches. "He's done just about everything in this game, pitched in big

Read more

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Washington Nationals

MLB Gambling Free Play: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

06.19.2013     11:39 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NY Mets (Marcum) at Atlanta (Medlen) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Atlanta -1.5 +120

After getting swept by the Mets yesterday, Atlanta was in no laughing mood.  They are in danger of losing their first series at home all year if they can’t notch the win today; an MLB best 24-10 on this field this year.  17 of those 24 wins have come by multi-run margins; consistent moneymakers at home when laying -1.5 on the run line.

Even after yesterday’s sweep, the Mets are 17-31 in their last 48 ballgames.  Starter Shaun Marcum is coming off a beating at the hands of the Cubs, the seventh time in his last ten starts that he’s notched only four or fewer strikeouts.  He’s winless in three previous tries on this field, and the suspect Mets bullpen behind him was used extensively in yesterday’s doubleheader. 

Braves starter Kris Medlen has owned the Mets lineup.  In 16 outings against New York he’s never lost a game, Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets Atlanta Braves Teddy Covers


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