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September

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Breaking down the NBA's Final Four

05.20.2013     08:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  With both Conference Finals getting underway, I’ll take a look at the two series, looking for hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspreads success.
There’s no question that predicting series success correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs.  This year’s results stand out in that regard.  In the West, Memphis went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs.  San Antonio covered the spread in seven out of ten through the first two rounds. 

In the East, Indiana went 8-4 ATS, including a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS mark at home in Indianapolis; five of those six wins coming by a double-digit margin.  And the defending champion and prohibitive favorite to win the title, Miami, despite their public nature, has gone 6-3 ATS in their first two series, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark on the highway – the mark of a strong, veteran championship contender.

When we add it up, we’re talking about 67% or better ATS results here Read more



Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Vegas Wiseguy Report: Attacking Cantor's Opening NFL Lines

05.13.2013     11:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve got to give Cantor Gaming a boatload of credit this week. While the vast majority of other sportsbooks around the globe collectively twiddled their thumbs following the NFL Draft, Cantor was the first major book to market with both season win totals and with pointspreads for every regular season game through Week 16. And Cantor released all of those numbers in their unique style – confident, aggressive, high limit bookmaking, exactly what the industry needs more of these days.

Of course, my job isn’t to praise Cantor. Like any bettor here in Las Vegas, my job is to beat Cantor! Over the course of the hot, summer months (the first 100 degree day of the year in Vegas comes this week, with many more to follow), I’ll spend a handful of articles discussing those 2013 NFL season win totals as the markets begin to mature. But this week, I’m going to write about Cantor’s ‘every game, every week’ pointspreads for an NFL season that won’t even kick off until September! There certainly aren’t many opportunities in the sportsbetting world to get down significant wagers on regular season games that won’t be played Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants

05.10.2013     11:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta (Hudson) +109 at San Francisco (Cain) O/U 7
Recommendation: Atlanta


The Braves are hitting significantly better than the Giants right now.  Tim Hudson is in better current form than Matt Cain.  Atlanta’s bullpen is every bit as good as that of the Giants, and they’re the fresher of the two pens following yesterday’s short outing from Ryan Vogelsong  and the Giants extra inning affair the night before.  Put it all together and we’ve got a ‘wrong team favored’ scenario in play tonight!

Atlanta has been scoring runs in bunches; 38 of them in their last six games, with previously slumping guys like Brian McCann (finally healthy), Dan Uggla and BJ Upton showing signs of life (five hits, four RBI and three runs scored last night), while Andeltron Simmons  has delivered eleven hits in the last five games as an emerging table setter.  Meanwhile, the Giants season long struggle to plate runs hasn’t Read more



Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants Teddy Covers




NBA Gambling: Home Court Advantage in the Playoffs

05.08.2013     12:27 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve heard a few people talking about the value of home court advantage in the playoffs over the past few days. I haven’t heard anybody talking about the actual numbers from this year! Figured I should rectify that.

Through the Tuesday night doubleheader that just ended in Oklahoma City, we have the following results through 51 postseason games. Note that I’m counting all overtime games as net zero at the end of regulation. So, technically, these are the numbers through the first 48 minutes of all 51 postseason games.

The “average” game has been a win of 3.63 points by the home team

The “median” result has been a win of 2 points by the home team

I had been estimating about 4 points for market value based on the prices we’ve been seeing thus far. That average of 3.63 isn’t far off from that. But, it’s VERY important that the median is only two. We’re seeing a lot of blowouts that are skewing the Read more



Tags: NBA Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Chicago Bulls outplay Miami Heat

05.07.2013     01:39 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
To call the Heat prohibitive favorites in their series against the Bulls is something of an understatement!  Miami was a 12.5- or 13-point favorite by tip-off against Chicago for Game 1, the single highest pointspread of the second round by a fairly wide margin.  For the series, the Heat opened as 1:50 favorites offshore and 1:30 favorites here in Vegas (laying $30 or $50 to win a single dollar).  Even after their Game 1 loss, the Heat are still 1:9 chalk to win the series; a true rarity when it comes to series prices for teams trailing 1-0 having already lost their home court advantage.

Games aren’t played on paper, and despite Miami’s enormous perceived advantage, they were clearly not the better team in the series opener on Monday Night.  Some of that was simply rust off following a week long layoff.  San Antonio – the other team that swept their first round series, then sat around waiting for the second round – was comparably flat.  But unlike Miami, San Antonio saved their best ball for crunch time of the fourth quarter, whereas the Heat looked gassed and shocked when Chicago scored the final ten points of the Read more



Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Miami Heat Teddy Covers




NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Chicago Bulls stun Miami Heat in Game 1

05.07.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Today was the day for my annual eye check. Which, apparently, I only do once every five years because I had fallen out of their records at the doctor’s office. Given the goop they drop in, and the stuff they do to confirm that you’re getting older, things were still a little bit blurred and streaky tonight. And, THEN the Chicago/Miami game Monday night turned into something where you couldn’t believe your eyes…

Chicago 93, Miami 86

2-Point Percentage: Chicago 45%, Miami 44%

3-Point Shooting: Chicago 7/18, Miami 7/24

Free Throws: Chicago 24/29, Miami 17/25

1’s and 2’s: Chicago 72, Miami 65

Rebounds: Chicago 46, Miami 32

Turnovers: Chicago 15, Miami 8

Great to see Chicago’s passion and intensity continue. It’s very easy to lose a step after climbing a mountain. Chicago climbed a bigger mountain! At least for one night.

You know…we’ve seen Miami Read more



Tags: NBA Chicago Bulls Miami Heat Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Durant leads OKC past Memphis in Game 1

05.06.2013     11:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Coming into the playoffs, the odds that backup OKC point guard Derek Fisher would be a defensive difference maker were somewhere between slim and none.   Then Russell Westbrook suffered a season ending injury.  Reggie Jackson, the second year point guard out of Boston College who averaged just 14 minutes of playing time during the regular season, has been promoted to the starting spot.  Fisher, who didn’t even sign with the Thunder until after the All-Star break, got a steady dose of garbage time minutes down the stretch.  He closed out his 24 game regular season stint with OKC averaging just 4.1 points on 33% shooting and 0.7 assists per game.

Fisher’s playoff history is truly a special one, highlighted by his infamous Game 5 buzzer beating three-pointer at San Antonio in Game 5 of the 2004 Western Conference Finals.  That shot is just one of quite literally dozens of huge makes from Fisher from a career that dates all the way back to 1996.  And Fisher hit a pair of impact three pointers in Game 1 against Memphis as well.  But the biggest clutch contribution from a guy with five championship rings on his fingers came Read more



Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Indiana takes 1-0 lead over New York

05.06.2013     11:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
While Game 1 went flying Over the total by 15 points, the truth of the matter is that New York is struggling mightily on the offensive end of the court these days.  They didn’t score more than 90 points in any of their games against the Celtics; the longest streak to start the playoffs since the shot clock came into play in the 1954-55 season.  As a result, since taking a 3-0 series lead against Boston, New York has lost three of their last four in straight up fashion despite being favored in all four games.

Health matters as much or more than any other factor at this time of the year, and the aging Knicks are struggling in that department as well.  Carmelo Anthony’s left shoulder is getting worse, not better after popping out of the socket during the Boston series.  Defensive mainstay Tyson Chandler isn’t anywhere near 100%.  Amare Stoudamire isn’t back in the lineup yet, although he could be before this series is through.  Steve Novak’s balky back is keeping him out of action as well.

New York earned the #2 seed in the East behind Miami because they were a solid defensive team, hit a boatload of three Read more



Tags: NBA New York Knicks Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers




NBA Playoff Betting Recap: Pacers and Thunder take 1-0 series leads

05.06.2013     07:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I didn’t get a chance to re-post the regular season statlines before Round Two got started Sunday in the NBA Playoffs. Let’s do a combination report that features those, plus the afternoon boxscores from the first two games of the league quarterfinals.

Let’s start in the East. The format we used during March Madness that helped paint such a good picture for us involved the following stats:

Two-Point Defense

Rebound Differential

Turnover Differential

Made Treys per Game

Pace Ranking

If you believe “defense and rebounding wins championships,” we have those numbers. If you believe that “you have to avoid turnovers” is important when championships are on the line, we have that. If you believe that three-point production is revolutionizing the game, that’s covered. If you believe that playing at your preferred pace while forcing your opponent out of their comfort zone is a hidden key to postseason Read more



Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers New York Knicks Oklahoma City Thunder Memphis Grizzlies Stat Intelligence




NBA Playoff Betting Preview: No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder

05.05.2013     07:14 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Western Conference Semifinals
No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder


Series Schedule
Game 1 - Sunday, May 5, at Oklahoma City 10 am PT
Game 2 - Tuesday, May 7, at Oklahoma City 6:30 pm PT
Game 3 - Saturday, May 11, at Memphis 2 pm PT
Game 4 - TBD
Game 5 * TBD
Game 6 * TBD
Game 7 * TBD

Series Price (CRIS)
Memphis -130/Oklahoma City +110

Playoffs Records
Oklahoma City - 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U
Memphis - 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 5-1 O/U

Season Series (Memphis 2-1 SU, Oklahoma City 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U)
3/20 - Memphis 90 vs. Oklahoma City (+1.5) 89 OT - UNDER 188.5
1/31 - Oklahoma City (-9.5) 106 vs. Memphis 89 - OVER 190
11/14 - Memphis (+5.5) 107 at Oklahoma City 97 - OVER 195

Sportsmemo Handicapping Erin Rynning's take:
The Western Conference changed dramatically coinciding with the injury to the Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook.  Look no further than the series price in this #1 seed vs. #5 matchup as the Thunder, with their home court Read more



Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies Oklahoma City Thunder Erin Rynning



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 27, 2016 03:23 AM.