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College Football Handicapping: Using ACCU-Stats for two SEC matchups
11.04.2011 08:23 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
A couple of favorable statistical profiles in the SEC this weekend. South Carolina travels to Arkansas as a 5-point underdog. Based on our
ACCU-Stats: True Rushing Numbers
(see explanation below), the Gamecocks are better with the run (5.41 ypc vs. 5.19 ypc) and significantly better against it (4.22 ypc allowed vs. 5.46 ypc allowed). The Razorbacks do sport the better passing attack (7.36 ypp vs. 5.83 ypp) but SC's pass defense has the ability to offset the discrepancy (3.96 ypp allowed vs. 6.14 ypp allowed). Backing underdogs who rush for more than they allow and have better ypc and ypc allowed numbers compared to the favorite has long been a positive profile.
If you skim through our
ACCU-Stat matchups page
, you'll notice that sizeable favorites often grade out better in all four statistical categories. For example, SMU is significantly better than Tulane across the board, hence why the Mustangs are 26-point favorites this weekend. But another team with
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Tags:
College Football
South Carolina Gamecocks
Alabama Crimson Tide
LSU Tigers
Arkansas Razorbacks
SEC
Andrew Lange
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Fairway Jay makes his move in Las Vegas' Wise Guys Football Contest
11.03.2011 10:02 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Fairway Jay is gaining ground in the 2011 Wise Guys Football Contest, an event he won last year. Jay is currently 10-5 ATS; the same record he had at this point in 2010.
The event features 64 of the nation’s top handicappers as they compete in a season long 18 week football contest. Last year, in just his second season competing in the event, Fairway Jay took home the title (14-3-1 ATS Best Bets) with $10,000 sponsored prize money.
You can follow the tournament via
Twitter
.
Tags:
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NCAAF Gambling Notes: Akron tries out Pistol Offense vs. Miami-Ohio
11.03.2011 09:22 AM
Printer Friendly
Akron
at
Miami (OH)
-14 O.U 47.5
Article on Akron's decision to use more of its
Pistol Offense
. In last week's 23-23 loss to Central Michigan, the Zips went with their pro-style in the first half and it produced only 77 yards on 32 plays. In the second half, going more up-tempo with the Pistol, they reeled off 330 yards on 42 plays. Some of it had to do with CMU playing more conservative but at least Akron is trying to be creative. Note that the weather is
expected to be wet
for tonight's game.
“It fits our team better right now,” Ianello said. “After going through and seeing what defenses have been doing to us, this adjustment will help us counter those defenses.”
“We studied this during the
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Tags:
College Football
Akron Zips
Miami (OH) RedHawks
MAC
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College Basketball Handicapping: Links to conference previews
11.03.2011 08:54 AM
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Below are links to various college basketball conference previews. They are fairly generic and not really from a betting perspective but they should provide a decent primer for those looking for returning starters.
ACC
Mountain West
Big West
MAAC
C-USA
Atlantic-10
Sun Belt
Missouri Valley
Colonial
Ivy League
Big Ten
OVC
Horizon
So-Con
PAC-12
SEC
Big East
MAC
WAC
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College Basketball
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College Football Betting Trends: Texas A&M 8-0 ATS first half, 2-6 ATS overall
11.03.2011 08:23 AM
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Texas A&M
at
Oklahoma
-13.5 O/U 68.5
Amazing that Texas A&M has covered the first half line in every game this season yet is 2-6 ATS overall. The reason is a consistent inability to perform in the second half. Last week's meltdown was particularly brutal as A&M held a 28-17 halftime lead over Missouri only to see the Tigers win 38-31 in overtime. This week,
A&M travels to Norman to take on Oklahoma
. The Sooners are 13.5-point home favorites for the game and project to be a 7-point first half favorite.
Texas A&M First Half-Game ATS Results
Opponent
Haltime Score
A&M 1st half ATS
Second Half Score
A&M Game SU/ATS
Missouri
A&M 28, MU 17
Win
MU 21, A&M 3
Loss/Loss
Iowa State
A&M 20, ISU 7
Win
A&M 13, ISU 10
Win/Loss
Baylor
A&M 24, BAY 14
Win
A&M 31, BAY 14
Win/Win
Texas Tech
A&M 31, TTU 20
Win
TTU 20, A&M 14
Win/Loss
Arkansas
A&M 35, ARK 17
Win
ARK 25, A&M 3
Loss/Loss
Oklahoma State
A&M 20, OSU 3
Win
OSU 27, A&M 9
Loss/Loss
Idaho
A&M 27, IDA 0
Win
A&M 10, IDA 7
Win/Loss
SMU
A&M 33, SMU 14
Win
A&M 13, SMU 0
Win/Win
Tags:
College Football
Texas A&M Aggies
Oklahoma Sooners
Big XII
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College Basketball Handicapping: Power Conference Odds
11.03.2011 06:35 AM
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Below are The Greek's current odds on five of the six power conferences (Big East currently not available). A quick look shows North Carolina a -175 favorite to win the ACC. Be prepared for more Tar Heel media coverage than you thought possible with four returning starters. Baylor is a small favorite over Kansas in the Big XII. The Bears return four starters while the Jayhawks will be forced to "reload" with only one starter back. Expect a lot of hype for Vanderbilt (+500) who is one of only a handful of teams in the country to return all five starters. Kentucky actually returns three starters and is a -125 favorite to win the SEC.
College Football Power Conference Odds 2011-12
ACC
Odds
Boston College  Â
 +6000
Clemson  Â
 +1500
Duke  Â
 +250
Florida State  Â
 +650
Georgia Tech  Â
 +3000
Maryland  Â
 +2500
Miami  Â
 +1500
North Carolina  Â
 -175
North Carolina State  Â
 +1800
Virginia  Â
 +1500
Virginia Tech  Â
 +1000
Wake Forest  Â
 +6000
Big Ten
Odds
Illinois  Â
 +1500
Iowa  Â
 +3000
Indiana  Â
 +1000
Michigan  Â
 +500
Michigan State  Â
 +350
Minnesota  Â
 +2000
Nebraska  Â
 +5000
Northwestern  Â
 +1800
Ohio State  Â
 -125
Penn State  Â
 +5000
Purdue  Â
 +1200
Wisconsin  Â
 +500
Big XII
Odds
Baylor  Â
 +150
Iowa State  Â
 +2000
Kansas  Â
 +175
Kansas State  Â
 +1200
Missouri  Â
 +650
Oklahoma  Â
 +2000
Oklahoma State  Â
 +1000
Texas  Â
 +800
Texas A&MÂ Â Â
 +500
Texas Tech  Â
 +5000
PAC-12
Odds
Arizona  Â
 +125
Arizona State  Â
 +1800
California  Â
 +800
Colorado  Â
 +3000
Oregon  Â
 +1500
Oregon State  Â
 +1500
Stanford  Â
 +1500
UCLAÂ Â Â
 +150
Southern Cal  Â
 +1800
Utah  Â
 +5500
Washington  Â
 +800
Washington State  Â
 +2500
SEC
Odds
Alabama  Â
 +800
Arkansas  Â
 +1500
Auburn  Â
 +4000
Florida  Â
 +250
Georgia  Â
 +2000
Kentucky  Â
 -125
LSUÂ Â Â
 +2000
Mississippi State  Â
 +1000
Mississippi  Â
 +1500
South Carolina  Â
 +5000
Tennessee  Â
 +2500
Vanderbilt  Â
 +500
Tags:
College Basketball
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College Football Line Moves: Bettors pound Florida against pesky Vanderbilt
11.02.2011 09:19 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Vanderbilt
at
Florida
-13.5 O/U 44.5
The betting markets have been all over Florida for its home tilt against Vanderbilt this weekend. CRIS opened the Gators -9.5 but the line has shot up to -13.5 (-14 at Pinnacle). Oddsmakers have made a sizable adjustment on the Commodores who closed as a 13.5-point home underdog against Georgia. The following week they crushed Army as an 11.5-point favorite and then nearly upset Arkansas as an 8-point underdog. Florida beat Vanderbilt 55-14 as 14-point favorites in last year's meeting in Nashville but we’re now dealing with two completely different teams. The Gators (4-4) are on a 0-4 SU/ATS run and in danger of not making the postseason. The Commodores (4-4) are closing in on a bowl berth with winnable games against Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest remaining. The secret to Vandy's success has been a surprisingly effective defense. They rank a respectable sixth in the SEC in yards per game allowed (331.9). The offense has
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Tags:
College Football
Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
SEC
Andrew Lange
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College Football Odds: Texas Longhorns have success with run-first mentality
11.02.2011 08:47 AM
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Texas Tech
at
Texas
-12 O/U 60
Article on how Texas has gone
run-heavy
with its offensive game plan. After being held to 36 yards on 45 attempts in the loss to Oklahoma, the Longhorns ran the ball 121 times for 672 yards (5.5 ypc) against Oklahoma State and Kansas. Expect more the same this weekend as Texas Tech ranks 114th against the run (225.8 ypg allowed).
People forget, in '04 when we beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl, we were 106th in passing in the country. We were second in rushing. So we were really good at running the football, but we'd throw a few play action passes in a game. We weren't a great defensive football team at that time. We were good. But we were a great running team, and right now we want to be a great running team and help our passing game catch up.
Tags:
College Football
Texas Longhorns
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Big XII
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College Football Betting Notes: Injuries and defections leave Indiana helpless
11.02.2011 07:16 AM
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Indiana
at
Ohio State
-27.5 O/U 51.5
Indiana's
roster situation
has gone from concerning to downright comical. The Hoosiers just lost a second starting receiver with Duwyce Wilson out with an ACL injury. Overall, 10 scholarship players have left the program since head coach Kevin Wilson took over in December. According to Sports Options' injury report, 15 Indiana players are currently listed as "out". Despite playing with a JV squad for much of the season, the Hoosiers have managed to cover a few games (4-5 ATS). But after allowing 51 ppg over their last four games, it is extremely difficult to get to the window with this team.
"I go home, I don't sleep, I'm not used to it and I don't want to get used to it," co-defensive
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Tags:
College Football
Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes
Big Ten
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College Football Pointspread News: Cincinnati eager for payback against Pitt
11.01.2011 12:19 PM
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Cincinnati
-2.5 at
Pittsburgh
O/U 54
Critical matchup in the Big East as Cincinnati (2-0) travels to Pittsburgh (2-1). The Bearcats come in off their second bye week of the season. The Panthers beat UConn 35-20 last Wednesday. According to Cinci quarterback Zach Collaros, lasy year's blowout home loss to Pitt is
something the team remembers
.
“A couple of years ago we played a great game (at Pitt) that was very exciting,” Collaros said today. “But we don’t remember that. We remember what happened last year. We got embarrassed on our home field. That’s been something we’ve been thinking about since Dec. 2 (actually Dec. 4). They were singing their fight song in our locker room and we’ve been thinking about that for a long time, throughout the summer in training camp.
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Tags:
College Football
Cincinnati Bearcats
Pittsburgh Panthers
Big East
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