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College Football Betting: Oregon's ATS streak comes to an end

10.21.2013     02:04 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It was a sad day in Eugene as Oregon's perfect season against the spread came to an end against Washington State. The Ducks are such a unique case study because everyone knows they are good and everyone knows they can score at will and yet when it comes to lining their games, oddsmakers continue to undervalue them. Now in CRIS's defense, there hasn't been much effort going into some of their "opening numbers" – more of a chuck something out there and let the markets decide. Still, this deep in the season even without much research most bettors can come within a field goal of a majority of the card. And yet on Sunday afternoon, CRIS threw up a -17.5 (-21.5 at Pinnacle) on the Ducks' matchup vs. UCLA and it's already been bet up to -23. That type of discrepancy isn't new. From opening to closing numbers we've seen moves towards UO of 1, 3.5, 8, 7.5, 2.5, 0.5, 2.5, and now 5.5 this season – even bigger when you consider the peak number prior to the buyback. Ironically, the most accurate line on an Oregon game this season was Week 1 against Nicholls State who no one knows a damn thing about. The Ducks opened -58, closed -59, and won 66-3. Below is a list of Read more



Tags: College Football Oregon Ducks PAC-12 Andrew Lange




College Football Gambling: Case McCoy knows his place in the betting markets

10.21.2013     12:10 PM     Printer Friendly
Maybe there's some sort of correlation between self-deprecation and pointspread success?

copy_mccoy.JPG

 




Tags: College Football Texas Longhorns TCU Horned Frogs Big XII




College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 8

10.21.2013     11:44 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In a perfect world, North Carolina's upcoming schedule would serve as an opportunity to "buy low" on the Tar Heels. But Thursday’s loss to Miami was one I don't think this team is going to be able to shake off anytime soon. After a 1-4 start, UNC was given an opportunity to save its season with a primetime game against the top 10 Hurricanes. It was unquestionably UNC's best effort I had seen and a game they probably should have won. But Miami made some plays late and left the Tar Heels 1-5 after relatively high preseason expectations. If North Carolina plays like they did against the 'Canes the rest of the way out (vs. BC, at NCST, vs. UVA, at PITT, vs. ODU, vs. DUKE) they could conceivably finish 7-5. But toughness is an issue with this club and it wouldn't surprise me to see them lose a few of those games outright.

Up 28-7 with 8 minutes to go in the third quarter, it looked like Louisville was going to pull away from UCF and remain undefeated. Instead, the Knights fought back and it was clear that the Cardinals didn't know how to respond to actually being in a competitive football game. It was fitting that the final box score in terms of first down, Read more



Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




College Football ATS Analysis: Golden Nugget's GOY vs. CRIS - Week 9

10.21.2013     06:49 AM     Printer Friendly
Checking in with the college football betting markets as we compare the Golden Nugget's Games of the Year from early June vs. CRIS's current numbers. Check out the discrepancies with Utah-USC and Northwestern-Iowa. 

2013 College Football Lines Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS - Week 9
Away
Home
Golden Nugget
CRIS Current
Boise State
BYU
BYU -1
BYU -7
Utah
USC
USC -18
USC -6.5
Arizona
Colorado
Arizona -20
Arizona -15
NC State
Florida State
Florida State -20
Florida State -30
Louisville
South Florida
Louisville -13
Louisville -19.5
Oklahoma State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State -14
Oklahoma State -14
South Carolina
Missouri
South Carolina -7
South Carolina NL
Penn State
Ohio State
Ohio State -16
Ohio State -15
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma -14
Oklahoma -6.5
Stanford
Oregon State
Stanford -3
Stanford -4.5
Vanderbilt
Texas A&M
Texas A&M -16
Texas A&M NL
California
Washington
Washington -17
Washington NL
Tennessee
Alabama
Alabama -27
Alabama -28
Notre Dame
Air Force
Notre Dame -18
Notre Dame NL
Northwestern
Iowa
Northwestern -12
Iowa -4
West Virginia
Kansas State
Kansas State -9
Kansas State -10
UCLA
Oregon
Oregon -20
Oregon -21
Texas
TCU
Texas -3
TCU -2.5





Tags: College Football




College Football Betting Recap: Big upsets shake up rankings, betting world

10.21.2013     06:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stats Intelligence

Losses in college football last Saturday for #3, #6, #7, #9, #11, #15, and #22. The linescores…

#5 Florida State (-4) 51, #3 Clemson 14

Fla-State: 566 yards, 7.8 per-play, 1 turnovers, 75% third downs

Clemson: 326 yards, 3.8 per-play, 4 turnovers, 33% third downs

(If you weren’t watching at the beginning…ABC televised uniformed Clemson players getting into buses outside one end of the stadium…riding in those buses around the stadium with a dramatic police escort to the other end…getting out of the buses…emphatically lining up to touch their lucky rock…sprinting onto the field in front of fireworks, balloons, and a zillion screaming fans…as a prelude to a 51-14 mega-debacle.)

Mississippi (+10) 27, #6 LSU 24

LSU: 388 yards, 5.7 per-play, 3 turnovers, 45% third downs

Miss: 522 yards, 6.3 per-play, 2 turnovers, 61% third downs

(Often in upsets, you see Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Gambling: 2nd Half Kickoff List - Week 8

10.19.2013     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly
We'll be updating our College Football 2nd half kick-off list throughout the day to help you with your second half wagers.

2013 College Football Week 8 2nd Half Kickoff List
Game #
Away Team
Home Team
Receive 2nd Half Kick
309
Duke
Virginia
Duke
311
Army
Temple
Army
313
Ohio
Eastern Michigan
Ohio
315
Ball State
Western Michigan
Western Michigan
317
Northern Illinois
Central Michigan
Central Michigan
319
Purdue
Michigan State
Purdue
321
Southern Miss
East Carolina
Southern Miss
323
Florida State
Clemson
Florida State
325
Maryland
Wake Forest
Wake Forest
327
Texas Tech
West Virginia
West Virginia
329
Minnesota
Northwestern
Northwestern
331
Navy
Toledo
Toledo
333
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Connecticut
335
SMU
Memphis
Memphis
337
Colorado State
Wyoming
Wyoming
339
Auburn
Texas A&M
Auburn
341
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon
343
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan
345
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech
347
Oregon State
California
Oregon State
349
Iowa
Ohio State
Ohio State
351
Arkansas
Alabama
Arkansas
353
South Carolina
Tennessee
South Carolina
355
Washington
Arizona State
Washington
357
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
North Texas
359
Kent State
South Alabama
South Alabama
361
Utah State
New Mexico
Utah State
363
Florida
Missouri
Florida
365
LSU
Mississippi
LSU
367
BYU
Houston
BYU
369
Massachusetts
Buffalo
Massachusetts
371
Georgia State
Texas State
Texas State
373
Akron
Miami (OH)
Akron
375
Iowa State
Baylor
Iowa State
377
Oklahoma
Kansas
Kansas
379
TCU
Oklahoma State
TCU
381
UCLA
Stanford
UCLA
383
USC
Notre Dame
USC
385
Rice
New Mexico State
New Mexico State
387
Nevada
Boise State
Boise State
389
Wisconsin
Illinois
Wisconsin
391
Georgia
Vanderbilt
Georgia
393
Utah
Arizona
Arizona
395
UNLV
Fresno State
UNLV





Tags: College Football




College Football Betting Preview: Syracuse Orange at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

10.18.2013     11:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Syracuse at Georgia Tech
Saturday, 9:30 am PT - ESPN Game Plan
CRIS Opener:
Georgia Tech -7 O/U 54
CRIS Current: Georgia Tech -7 (-120) O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Georgia Tech -11.5
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: Georgia Tech

Pretty good situational play here on the home side as Georgia Tech, off three straight losses, returns home to face ACC newbie Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets ran into a tough stretch of games with Virginia Tech (6-1) and Miami (6-0) followed by a brutal travel spot at BYU. Note that those three teams all reside in the top 26 nationally in total defense and were well versed in what to expect from Tech's offense (BYU played in Atlanta last season). And despite how unique and difficult it is to prepare for Georgia Tech's offense, strong, well-coached defenses have proved able to contain it. I'm not sure we get that with Syracuse who allowed 48 against Northwestern and Read more



Tags: College Football Syracuse Orange Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ACC Andrew Lange




College Football Consensus Bets: Wyoming the top play for Week 8

10.18.2013     09:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets for college football's Week 8 courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDES
Wyoming -5.5 (96.0%) vs. Colorado State
New Mexico +10 (93.8%) vs. Utah State
Ball State -20 (91.6%) at Western Michigan
Oregon State -10.5 (88.6%) at California
Buffalo -19 (87.3%) vs. UMass

TOTALS
Oklahoma-Kansas OVER 49.5 (100%)
Rice-New Mexico State OVER 58 (100%)
UNLV-Fresno State OVER 73.5 (95.5%)
North Texas-Louisiana Tech UNDER 54 (95.2%)
Nevada-Boise State OVER 68 (94.6%)




Tags: College Football




College Football Handicapping: Ole Miss defense hammered by injuries

10.18.2013     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LSU -10 at Mississippi O/U 60

It's a real mess for Ole Miss with as many as seven defensive players either out or questionable for Saturday's game against LSU.


“They’re all either definitely out or questionable at best,” coach Hugh Freeze said of his injured defenders. “I’m not hopeful. We’re planning on going without them, because I just don’t see them being ready.”

“It’s a bigger challenge than I’ve had,” Freeze said. “So this is a new wrinkle to the challenge of getting our kids back up. We’re certainly doing everything we know to do.”






Tags: College Football Ole Miss Rebels LSU Tigers SEC




College Football Gambling: CRIS vs. Rob Veno's Power Ratings Week 8

10.18.2013     07:34 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno has been creating his own Power Ratings for nearly two decades. His numbers are very well respected and an excellent tool for discovering value. Rob’s PRs are a baseline and do not include key injuries or situations but they also don't overreact as much as the betting markets do week to week. Below is a chart of CRIS's current lines and Rob's College Football Power Ratings for Week 8.

2013 College Football CRIS Lines vs. Rob Veno Power Ratings - Week 8
Away Team
Home Team
CRIS Current
Veno Power
Central Florida
Louisville
Louisville -14.5
Louisville -10
Duke
Virginia
Virginia -3 (ev)
Virginia -2.5
Army
Temple
Temple -2.5
Temple -1.5
Ohio
Eastern Michigan
Ohio -16.5
Ohio -13
Ball State
Western Michigan
Ball State -20
Ball State -14.5
Northern Illinois
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois -15.5
Northern Illinois -16.5
Purdue
Michigan State
Michigan State -27.5
Michigan State -23
Southern Miss
East Carolina
East Carolina -23
East Carolina -22
Florida State
Clemson
Florida State -3
Florida State -1
Maryland
Wake Forest
Maryland -5
Maryland -4.5
Texas Tech
West Virginia
Texas Tech -5
Texas Tech -6
Minnesota
Northwestern
Northwestern -12
Northwestern -13.5
Navy
Toledo
Toledo -10 (-115)
Toledo -5
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Cincinnati -14.5
Cincinnati -13
SMU
Memphis
Memphis -3 (-120)
Memphis -1.5
Colorado State
Wyoming
Wyoming -6
Wyoming -6
Auburn
Texas A&M
Texas A&M -13.5
Texas A&M -15.5
Washington State
Oregon
Oregon -39.5
Oregon -32.5
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan -9.5
Michigan -13.5
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech -7.5
Georgia Tech -11.5
Oregon State
California
Oregon State -10.5
Oregon State -12
Iowa
Ohio State
Ohio State -18
Ohio State -17.5
Arkansas
Alabama
Alabama -28
Alabama -30
South Carolina
Tennessee
South Carolina -7
South Carolina -10
Washington
Arizona State
Arizona State -3.5
Arizona State -3
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
North Texas -3.5
North Texas -1
Kent State
South Alabama
South Alabama -7
South Alabama -1
Utah State
New Mexico
Utah State -10
Utah State -15
Florida
Missouri
Florida -3
Missouri -1
LSU
Mississippi
LSU -10
LSU -5
BYU
Houston
BYU -9.5
BYU -8
Massachusetts
Buffalo
Buffalo -19.5
Buffalo -19.5
Georgia State
Texas State
Texas State -16
Texas State -16
Akron
Miami (OH)
Akron -7
Akron -8.5
Iowa State
Baylor
Baylor -34
Baylor -25.5
Oklahoma
Kansas
Oklahoma -22
Oklahoma -21.5
TCU
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State -7 (-120)
Oklahoma State -8.5
UCLA
Stanford
Stanford -4.5
Stanford -6.5
USC
Notre Dame
Notre Dame -3
Notre Dame -4.5
Rice
New Mexico State
Rice -17.5
Rice -19.5
Nevada
Boise State
Boise State -22.5
Boise State -20
Wisconsin
Illinois
Wisconsin -14 (-115)
Wisconsin -13
Georgia
Vanderbilt
Georgia -6.5 (-115)
Georgia -6
Utah
Arizona
Arizona -4
Arizona -0.5
UNLV
Fresno State
Fresno State -24.5
Fresno State -20.5





Tags: College Football Rob Veno



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