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MAC Tournament Betting Preview
03.07.2011 08:16 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
The MAC Tournament gets underway on Tuesday with first round action taking place at the higher seeded schools. The top four seeds all received first round byes. The quarterfinals through the finals will be played at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. Note that following the first round, there will be a day off to allow time for the winners to travel.
Last season was an underdogs dream as the semifinals featured No. 9 vs. No. 4 and No. 7 vs. No. 3 matchups. No. 9 Ohio defeated No. 3 Akron in overtime to win the title. The type of outcome could very well happen again as no team during the regular season appeared dominant. In fact, there are a handful of lower seeded teams that earlier in the year looked like contenders. No. 8 seed Buffalo was 6-2 but fell to 8-8. The Bulls have wins over No. 1 seed Kent State, No. 2 Western Michigan and No. 3 Miami. Last year’s winner Ohio is another dangerous team playing on the first day. The fifth-seed Bobcats beat Kent State and Akron down the stretch and have a favorable
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Andrew Lange
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Big Ten Betting Preview: Penn State at Minnesota
03.06.2011 07:05 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Penn State at Minnesota -4.5 O/U 127
Recommendation: Minnesota
Few teams have fallen faster than the Minnesota Golden Gophers; a five-week slide of 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS. Following a 16-4 start to the season, the Gophers have buried themselves underground and will have to win the Big Ten Tournament to advance to the Big Dance. But despite the severe struggles and long losing that began with the loss of point guard Al Nolan, Minnesota fits a strong last home game (LHG) profile coming off recent losses and playing with single season revenge. Minnesota lost at Penn State 63-60 just 2+ weeks ago despite out-shooting and out-rebounding the Nittany Lions by a fair margin. Hard to believe the Gophers have crashed so hard when you look at the defensive numbers. Minnesota leads the Big Ten in rebounding margin, blocked shots and is no. 2 in field goal defense and 3-point defense. But they own the league’s worst turnover margin and have not been the same since Nolan broke his foot the end of January. Penn
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NBA Friday Free Betting Pick: Cleveland at New York
03.04.2011 11:40 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Cleveland +12.5 at New York +12.5 O/U 217
Recommendation: Cleveland
The Knicks have been a stellar pointspread team in nearly every role this year. They’ve been a powerhouse as an underdog and a juggernaut as short favorites – winning the games they are supposed to win. But when the Knicks have been asked to win by big margins against weaker foes, they’ve been unable to do so. New York is 36-21-2 ATS for the season, but as favorites of seven points or more, Mike D’Antoni’s squad is a woeful 1-6 against the spread.
This is not an easy spot for New York. They traded away their starting point guard Ray Felton last week. His replacement, veteran Chauncey Billups, is not expected to suit up here. That leaves a starting backcourt duo of Toney Douglas and Landry Fields, not a duo I want to lay double-digits with these days. The Knicks are relatively “fat and happy” right now, thanks to their outright upset at Miami
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Cleveland Cavaliers
Teddy Covers
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Metro Atlantic Conference Tournament Betting Preview
03.03.2011 02:12 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) Tournament tips off on Friday Night at the Webster Bank Arena in Bridgeport, Connecticut. The four-day tournament will take place at the home of the Fairfield Stags, who, coincidently, happen to be the #1 seed and the odds on favorite to earn to MAAC’s lone Big Dance bid in 2011.
The play-in games are on Friday, as #7 seed Siena takes on #10 seed Manhattan and #8 seed Niagara faces #9 seed Marist. Manhattan went 3-15 in conference play as part of a dismal 6-24 campaign. Reports out of New York indicate that head coach Barry Rohrssen isn’t going to get a sixth year to turn the program around, expected to be fired after the Jaspers lose their next game.
It’s worth noting that the only conference win that the Jaspers have had since January came against these same Saints, and Manhattan covered the spread in both regular season meetings with Siena. The Saints are the three-time defending champs in this league. But first-year head coach Mitch
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Teddy Covers
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Fairway Jay readies for the college basketball postseason
03.03.2011 08:47 AM
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Wednesday was a profit-producing night despite a pair of over/under defeats as we went 5-1 on CBB sides 6-3 overall on the hardwood and continued our solid late-season run. Our CBB situationals involving last home games (LHG), second meets and other motivational and situational parameters are integrated with the match-up analysis to produce more winners as the regular season winds down and tournament season begins.
The closing weeks of the regular season and tournament time are often met with resistance and struggles for many handicappers. But with our profits down the stretch capped by our 20* College Basketball Game of the Year and 20* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Year winners in the books the past two week’s, we’ll try to improve on our top-rated Big Drive’s and produce more profit as tournament season begins.
Few handicappers in the nation have the long-term resume of Fairway Jay when it comes to producing college basketball profit and postseason success. There is much to analyze
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Big East Betting Preview: Pittsburgh at South Florida
03.02.2011 12:03 PM
Helmut Sports
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Submitted by Helmut Sports
Pittsburgh -10 at South Florida O/U 125
Recommendation: Under
The Panthers tried to play at a much faster pace earlier in the season but as the campaign winds down, we've seen a lot more of what has become typical Pitt basketball. Over the last six games the Panther offense has slowed down to the point where they failed to top 65 possessions.
That figures to be the case against South Florida; another team that hasn’t done much running this season. The Bulls have not done much in the way of scoring either with totals of 55, 55, 55, 58, and 49 prior to a strong showing against defensively inept DePaul. The Panthers have had a few inconsistent offensive efforts of their own but continue to win by playing outstanding defense. In the last five games Pitt allowed 56, 58, 60, 55, and 54.
The Bulls have managed to hang around in the conference games as their 10-6 ATS record will point out. With a limited amount of possessions projected I just cannot see this Bulls offense having much
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South Florida Bulls
Big East
Helmut Sports
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CBB Handicapping: Regular Season vs. Conference Tournament totals
03.02.2011 07:27 AM
Helmut Sports
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Submitted by Helmut Sports
With the conference tournament season here there always has been discussion on how low scoring some of these games are. After all it makes some sense that these would be lower scoring games as these are basically do or die games for most teams. Every possession is that much more important, the defenses should be a little more intense and with the games on neutral courts they should be very competitive. This year I decided to look into the recent history and see if that was true. I went back and looked at the results from the 31 conferences that have had postseason tournaments for the last three years. There were a total of 686 games which had totals on them resulting in an O/U record of 313-367-6 (46.0%). Since the regular season conference games totals always finish around 50% there indeed seems to be some truth to this.
Then I got to thinking what about all those small conferences? Typically we have not had totals on these games until recently and I decided to look at the American East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, MEAC, NEC,
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Helmut Sports
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Colonial Atheltic Association Tournament Betting Preview
03.01.2011 12:38 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
The Colonial Athletic Association Tournament gets underway on Friday in Richmond, Virginia. All 12 teams make the tournament with seeds No. 5-No. 12 facing off in the first round. The top four seeds all receive first round byes. Over the last six years, the No. 1 seed has won the tournament five times. Only once (No. 11 Towson in 2009) has a team outside of the top six seeds made the semifinals. Ten of the last 12 finalists have been a third seed or better.
The year’s top seed is George Mason (16-2) who finished two games ahead of second seed Old Dominion (14-4) and third seed Hofstra (14-4). Mason was also the league’s top ATS outfit with a 14-4 mark during the regular season. The Patriots and Monarchs are both solid bets to reach the Big Dance as at-large berths should they not win the conference tournament.
Hometown VCU (fourth-seed) started 10-1 in league play but faded badly down the stretch to finish 12-6. The Rams have won two of the last four tournament titles and clearly have the talent to
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Andrew Lange
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CBB Handicapping: Who has what it takes to win it all in 2011?
02.28.2011 11:11 AM
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History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion. I write this article every year, and every year, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA National Champion among my elite level teams.
The last 13 NCAA champions and the team’s they beat in the title game are listed here: Kentucky over Utah in ’98, UConn over Duke in ’99, Michigan St over Florida in 2000, Duke over Arizona in ’01, Maryland over Indiana in ’02, Syracuse over Kansas in ’03, UConn over Georgia Tech in ’04, North Carolina over Illinois in ’05, Florida over UCLA in ’06, Florida over Ohio State in ’07, Kansas over Memphis in ’08, North Carolina over Michigan State in ’09 and Duke over Butler last year.
All 13 champions had very specific abilities, a very specific track record and a very specific statistical profile as a team that allowed them to go all the way. In Part 1 of this article, I’ll take a look at that statistical profile and make a “short
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Teddy Covers
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CBB Handicapping: Are soft rims the reason for Wisconsin Overs?
02.28.2011 07:49 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Have you noticed some of the obscene shooting performances by Wisconsin – and the opposition – in the Kohl Center this season? The most recent was last night's clinic in which the Badgers and Northwestern combined for the following offensive numbers: 49-94 52% FGs, 19-40 48% 3-pt, 24-31 77% FTs. The end result was a 78-63 UW win and another home game that went over the total. To date seven of Wisconsin's nine league games at the Kohl Center have gone over the total, and some of them weren’t even close. The last four home tilts have produce games scores of 141, 142, 138 and 138. All told, the average closing total on those nine home games was 123.5 and the average game score was 133.5.
The reason? In the handful of times I’ve watched Wisconsin play at home in Big Ten play, I have seen some generous bounces which suggest soft rims may be the culprit. And I’m apparently not the only one to notice. Type in “soft rims Kohl Center” into Google, and
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Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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