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NCAA Basketball Handicapping: Fouls and scoring on the downswing

01.12.2012     06:45 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
I was researching teams and pace of play recently when I came across this article on the number of fouls being called in college basketball games this season and the impact on scoring.

According to statistics provided by the NCAA, there have been 18.35 fouls called per game per team this season. That is the lowest since 1963, when the average was 18.20. Not surprisingly, this has had an effect on scoring. Overall team scoring average is 68.88 ppg, and that number may well drop as conference play continues.  It appears the refs are clamping down on physical play, making it a bit it's easier for players to dribble, pass and shoot.
Yet according to my research of O/U results on over 1,500 college basketball games this season, the OVER is winning just 49.1% of the time, which is right at the average the past four seasons (note: results may vary due to totals market moves). As teams play more conference games against familiar opponents and coaching staffs, the games tend to have less scoring overall with stronger defensive intensity. You still Read more

Tags: College Basketball __

College Basketball Gambling: Wisconsin looks to snap three-game losing streak

01.12.2012     06:35 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wisconsin at Purdue -2.5 O/U 112.5

Fantastic article about Wisconsin's struggles of late. The Badgers (1-3 Big Ten) recently lost back-to-back games at the Kohl Center and while the team's three-point shooting has been strong (37.3%), when the outside shot isn't falling, points have been very hard to come by.

Shot attempts in Ryan’s system are a de facto zero-sum game, so if one type of shot isn’t working, they should ideally shift some of those attempts inside. Instead, they’ve been shooting more from long range: almost 25% of their total three-point attempts on the year have come in the last three games.

Tags: College Basketball Wisconsin Badgers Purdue Boilermakers

NCAA Basketball Free Pick: Dayton Flyers at St. Bonaventure Bonnies

01.11.2012     12:52 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Dayton at St. Bonaventure -3.5 O/U 129.5
Recommendation: St. Bonaventure

Dayton has gotten off to a tremendous start in Atlantic-10 play, knocking off heavyweights Saint Louis and Temple in its first two conference games.  But the injury bug has bitten the Flyers hard, leaving them extremely short handed for their trip to St Bonnie's tonight. Last week, Dayton lost big man Josh Benson for the season with a knee injury.  Benson was second on the team in scoring, third in rebounding and the only legitimate shot-blocker on the roster. Now they've lost Chris Johnson to a concussion in practice on Monday, another key low post contributor: third on the team in scoring and second in rebounding. A third key low post contributor, Luke Fabrizius, suffered a fractured nose at Temple over the weekend, and will have to play with a mask for the first time in his career tonight.  That leaves the Flyers with only eight healthy scholarship players in their Read more

Tags: College Basketball. St. Bonaventure Bonnies Dayton Flyers Teddy Covers

NCAA Basketball Betting: Off big win, Michigan an -8 favorite over Northwestern

01.11.2012     06:18 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Northwestern at Michigan -8 O/U 133.5

Two "systems" at work tonight in the Big Ten with Michigan playing host to Northwestern. Both teams run unique offensive sets while playing 1-3-1 zone and man-to-man defenses. On Sunday, Michigan dominated Wisconsin start to finish, 59-41. Northwestern has a week off after losing to Illinois by one at home. The Wildcats have won three of the last four meetings – Michigan was just a 2-point home favorite last year (won 75-66).

“It’s hard to emulate the speed and just the precision of (the Princeton offense),” said senior guard Stu Douglass. “It’s hard enough for us to guard it, let alone the scout team picking it up in one or two days. … We’ve done a pretty good job with the short time we’ve had. I’m not too Read more

Tags: College Basketball Michigan Wolverines Northwestern Wildcats

Handicapper Fairway Jay continues his NFL Playoffs success

01.09.2012     06:32 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Faithful followers and clients were rewarded with a pair of 20* Big Drive winners in the NFL Wild Card round this past weekend. Our top rated 20* Playoff Game of the Year winner on Houston was an easy cash as the Texans rolled to a 31-10 victory over Cincinnati. It was the Texans’ first-ever playoff appearance and victory and the strength of home field, frenzied fans, strong running game and dominating defense played out perfectly. With that victory, I extended my NFL postseason run to 6-0, 100% on side selections over the past three seasons. In addition, clients parlayed their profits on Sunday when we delivered our 20* NFL Playoff O/U Game of the Year – a never-in-doubt winner on the Giants-Falcons under the total as New York rolled 24-2.

The fundamentals at the point of attack played out as projected as the Texans ran for 188 yards on 35 attempts behind star running back Arian Foster’s 153 yards, two touchdowns and over 6.3 yards per rush. The Bengals managed just 76 yards on 19 attempts and rookie quarterback Andy Dalton threw three interceptions. Not to be outdone, the Giants rushed for 172 yards against Atlanta’s top-10 run defense that Read more

Tags: NFL __

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at NC State Wolfpack

01.08.2012     07:29 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Maryland +11 at NC State O/U 148.5
Recommendation: Maryland

I think when it is all said and done, the final season results of both Maryland and NC State won't be too dissimilar. The Wolfpack probably have a bit more talent but with the Terps adding a few pieces over the last few weeks, the difference isn't 11 points. Another part of my intrigue towards the underdog is that NC State cannot be trusted in the price range against comparable competition. I've watched this team multiple times this season and during the regular flow of the game, they look extremely good. But it all goes haywire when possessions start to mean something or they need a defensive stop. Maryland PG Pe'Shone Howard (broken foot) and center Alex Lin (eligibility) should be fairly settled in the rotation having played four and three games respectively. As a result, the Terps now have eight players who have averaged over 20 minutes per game of playing time. I don't think the betting markets Read more

Tags: College Basketball Maryland Terrapins NC State Wolfpack Andrew Lange

NFL Playoffs: Bettors supporting New Orleans Saints in shootout

01.06.2012     06:12 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Sports bettors are expecting a shootout at the Superdome Saturday when the Saints host the Lions in the NFC Divisional round. Bookmakers are aware of the Saints’ success at home this season – a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS while averaging 41 ppg. The Saints scored 547 points this season (33.2 ppg); just behind Green Bay’s 560 points. The Lions averaged 29 ppg this season, and with a pair of 5,000 yard passers including Drew Brees’ record-setting 5,487 passing yards, there’s no doubt we’ll see plenty of passing and big plays through the air.
Despite the inflated side and total, public bettors are not holding back in their support of the Saints to win in a high-scoring shootout. Currently over 80% of the public is betting OVER the total with nearly 60% siding with the Saints. Some interesting trends and historical data are working against New Orleans supporters. Since 2003, teams that won at least 13 games in the regular season are 7-14 ATS in their first playoff game. In that same time frame, teams with more wins that their opponent have cashed just 42% of the time in opening round playoff games. Also since 2003, teams that average at least 30 ppg are Read more

Tags: NFL New Orleans Saints Detroit Lions __

College Basketball Free Pick: Montana State Bobcats at Idaho State Bengals

01.05.2012     07:18 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Montana State at Idaho State -1.5 O/U 137
Recommendation: Under

The only way Idaho State is going to have success in the Big Sky this season is to shorten the game and play defense. The Bengals simply don't have the horses to trade scores on a nightly basis. Last time out, they went on the road and picked up a rare victory – a 57-55 win at Northern Colorado. The game featured only 53 possessions (and UNC likes to run typically). Montana State is off a rare performance as well as it hung 86 on Portland State. It was really the perfect storm for the Bobcats – weak opponent that doesn't play defense and likes to run. On the road, I don't think we'll see that type of outcome. The total in this series has never been higher that 135 (2-10 O/U) and in Pocatello, the game scores were 95, 133, 107, 113, and 125. Play it under.

Tags: College Basketball Montana State Bobcats Idaho State Bengals Andrew Lange

NHL Eastern Conference Mid-Season Betting Report

01.04.2012     11:56 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports blog entry.
The NHL season nears the halfway mark so it’s time to sit down and take a look at where teams are at currently and what can we expect going forward.  There are a few surprises in the Eastern Conference so far.  We knew the Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins would be playing good hockey and competing at a high level, but I don’t think too many people expected the Florida Panthers, Philadelphia Flyers, or the New York Rangers to be this solid in the early going.  I liked both the Rangers and Panthers heading into the season so their success doesn’t come as a huge shock. The Flyers though have exceeded expectations. I didn’t think we'd see their young guys grow so fast and make such an immediate impact. I figured it would take them at least a year to adapt after the major overhaul to their team this past offseason. 

The major disappointment thus far has to be the Buffalo Sabres.  Despite the a handful of key injuries the first half of the season, they still should be doing more with the talent they have healthy and Ryan Miller in net. Tampa Bay has been a disappointment as well.  They haven’t strung Read more

Tags: NFL Sammy P

College Basketball Free Pick: UTEP Miners at Marshall Thundering Herd

01.04.2012     10:57 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
UTEP +12 at Marshall O/U 130
Recommendation: UTEP

Marshall is expected to contend for a Conference-USA championship and that in my opinion has them a little overvalued entering league play. The Thundering Herd are a talented and experienced team and we cashed with them earlier this season in their 62-56 loss at Syracuse (+15.5). A road win at Cincinnati and home win over Belmont shows some of the strength and potential of this Marshall squad. But UTEP (8-2 ATS) is improving and playing better after a 1-4 start with outright underdog wins on a neutral court against Clemson and Auburn and a competitive contest against top-25 Kansas State. Road losses at UNLV and Oregon were also competitive covers despite being 17-point underdogs. Senior forward Gabriel McCalley is an anchor inside and young forwards Bohannon and Lang are rapidly improving while leading the team in rebounding and hitting 52% and 69% of their shots respectively. Transfer point man Jacques Streeter Read more

Tags: College Basketball Marshall Thundering Herd UTEP Miners __


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