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November

25

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MLB Gambling Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates try to climb towards top of NL Central

03.30.2012     11:18 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2011 Record: 72-90
2011 Profits: -1.1 units
2011 O/U: 79-76-7
Pinnacle's 2012 NL Central Odds: +3164
Pinnacle's 2012 Season O/U Wins: 73ov-129

Pittsburgh finished 18 games Under .500, but 15th in the MLB in profits. They were also a modest two games under .500 vs. the Central Division (39-41) but 25-42 vs. other divisions.  87-75 to OVER.  Winning record vs. lefties.  Only 1 game under .500 in one run games = lots of multi-run losses.  Kevin Correia was 18-8 to the OVER.

The 2011 Pirates were in first place in the third week of July, but it was a terrible call by umpire Jerry Meals in the 19th inning of what would end up being a 4-3 loss to Atlanta that set off a 1-11 run and quickly eliminated them from playoff contention. That was their professional-sports-record 19th consecutive losing season.

In the rotation, the arrival of A.J. Burnett – broken orbital bone, out till May – and Erik Bedard – opening day starter – represents an upgrade. Charlie Read more


Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Philadelphia Phillies could be vulnerable due to age

03.29.2012     12:14 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Philadelphia Phillies are a -135 favorite to win the National League East, the clear cut choice to win the National League +300, and sport the lowest odds to win the World Series (+630). But it doesn't seem so cut and dry when we consider how many aging and injury prone players are on the roster.


According to Nate Silver, "the steepest part of the aging curve -- when a hitter experiences the most manifest decline in his abilities -- tends to come between ages 32 and 34." It can be devastating enough to an offense when two or three hitters enter this period of accelerated decline at the same time. The Phillies are entering it as a team.

The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off their fifth straight season as the top team in the National League East. For the first time in years they’re looking vulnerable, which prompted one scout to Read more



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies




Sportsbooks offer lines on women's college and pro basketball

03.29.2012     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly
Article in ESPN the Magazine about betting on women's basketball – the best example of bet-it-and-forget-it we can think of.


"But in women's college hoops, the disparity between the three or four great teams and everyone else is too big," Kornegay says. "No one wants to bet those games unless it is a marquee matchup. There is no edge."

"Pros assume they are betting something off the beaten path, but we pay attention to it," Kornegay says. "It is just another gambling event we can offer. One in which we all think there is an opportunity."











MLB Gambling Notes: Kuroda's numbers suggest he may struggle at Yankee Stadium

03.29.2012     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Great find by ESPN as they pointed out the potential struggles for newly acquired starter Hiroki Kuroda at Yankee Stadium. The left-handed power numbers vs. Kuroda last year were alarmingly high. This of course not a good recipe to have with such a short porch in right field – not to mention tossing in the American League.


Lefties hit 33 fly balls and line drives against Kuroda along the right field line (we started at that line and extended out 15 degrees from that point to define this area). That’s a rate of about one per game.

Those 33 fly balls traveled an average of 315 feet, the furthest for any pitcher in the majors last season. Ex-Yankee A.J. Burnett ranked second, 310 feet.

Why is that particularly worrisome in Yankee Stadium? Remember the distance from home plate to the fence in the right field corner?

It’s 314 feet.






Tags: MLB New York Yankees




Betting handle on March Madness surpasses Super Bowl

03.28.2012     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Reports say that the betting handle generated from March Madness has surpassed that of the Super Bowl in Las Vegas. Not entirely shocking considering how many postseason college basketball games there are for bettors to wager on.


“You take all those games and combine them all, it surpasses what we take in on the Super Bowl,” Kornegay says. “It’s 67 games, as opposed to one game.”

But the state's legalized sports books typically see a $100 million jump in total basketball betting every March, Streshley says.

In 2011, gamblers wagered $256.6 million on college/pro basketball in March vs. $114.3 million in February. With the Big Dance wrapped over by early April, the basketball handle for that month then dropped back to $78.2 million.





Tags: College Basketball NFL




MLB Handicapping Preview: Soft schedule could mean fast start for Cleveland

03.27.2012     11:53 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland Indians
2011 Record: 80-82
2011 Profits: +2.40 units
2011 O/U: 84-70
Pinnacle's 2012 AL East Odds: +1069
Pinnacle's 2012 Season O/U Wins: 79.5un-130

News Links
On May 23 of last year, the Indians had a 7-game lead in the AL Central but finished the season 15 games back of Detroit. During that span, the Tribe went 51-67. The team is hoping by experiencing last year's highs and lows that they'll be better prepared to compete on a full-time basis.


"This team is built to win now," All-Star closer Chris Perez said. "That's the way we look at it. We know from a year ago how tough it is to win for an entire season. We're better prepared to deal with that.

"It's playoffs or bust."



Ubaldo Read more


Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' NCAA Tournament Final Four Betting Preview

03.26.2012     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Over the last two weeks we’ve seen 64 NCAA Tournament teams get eliminated from the field, leaving only the Final Four remaining with a chance to cut down the nets in New Orleans next Monday.

College hoops statistical guru Ken Pomeroy breaks down the four teams chances to win the title as follows: Kentucky 42%, Ohio State 34%, Kansas 17% and Louisville 7%. From my perspective, if John Calipari’s Wildcats play as well next weekend as they did this past weekend, that 42% chance of a title looks pretty darn low.

That being said, it’s going to be very hard for Kentucky to match their near flawless offensive performances in wins over Baylor and Indiana. The Wildcats have scored a ridiculous 220 points in their last 163 possessions; a 1.35 points per possession ratio. Those are not sustainable numbers, even for a team that closed out the weekend ranked #2 in the country (behind only Missouri) with 1.17 points per possession average.

Both Final Four games are rematches of non-conference affairs from earlier in the season. The talking heads on TV are sure to bring up this angle ad nauseum, but the bottom line is that neither affair had a Read more


Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals Kansas Jayhawks Ohio State Buckeyes Teddy Covers




NBA Handicapping: Scouts chime in on current league topics

03.25.2012     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from ESPN with various unnamed NBA scouts offering their opinions.

They seem to be pretty high on up-and-coming Lakers guard Ramon Sessions.


"He's going to allow Kobe [Bryant] to really play the 2 [guard]. And because of the way Mike Brown runs sets to get Kobe catches, this is going to be huge for [Bryant]. It's not a read-and-react offense anymore. They run several things directly to set up Kobe for a catch in certain spots. There's no question that Sessions will do that for them and do it well. I think they can absolutely play together."



Oklahoma City should benefit from the acquisition on Derek Fisher – if not on the court then certainly from a leadership standpoint.


"He's got the rings, baby. The ring's the thing. All the stuff [OKC's young stars are] trying to get, Fisher's already got. So I think they'll listen to what he has to say. And from a competitive standpoint, Fisher going there kind of gets back at the Lakers.



The Read more


Tags: NBA




NCAA Tournament Gambling: A handicapper's look at the Sweet Sixteen

03.19.2012     07:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The first weekend of the Madness is in the history books and only 16 teams remain standing in the NCAA Tournament. Let’s take a look at those 16 teams and assess their chances for tournament success as the field gets reduced to the Final Four this coming weekend. Teams are listed in rotation order.

Wisconsin is a mirror image of their head coach Bo Ryan: tough as nails. There’s no questioning the Badgers execution or heart, but this is not one of the more talented teams that Ryan has coached during his tenure in Madison. The Badgers are an offensively challenged ballclub that relies heavily on their three-point shooting. Four of their top five scorers average at least one made three pointer per game. Their leading rebounder, Ryan Evans, is 6-6, 210; not a team with a dominant inside presence. We’ve seen the Badgers end up on the wrong side of nearly every “step up in class” game away from home this year, with two exceptions: their win at Ohio State and their win over Vandy to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

Fab Melo’s academic ineligibility wasn’t a major factor for Syracuse in either of its Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




CIT Free Betting Pick: Weber State Wildcats at Loyola Marymount Lions

03.18.2012     06:43 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Weber State at Loyola Marymount -3.5 O/U 144.5
Recommendation: Over


Outside Big Sky play, Weber State was repeatedly exposed on the defensive end of the floor. Against St. Mary's, BYU and Cal, the Wildcats surrendered 87, 94 and 77 points. They also struggled on the road, allowed nearly 73 ppg. The end result was a season long average of 105.7 points per possessions allowed which is very similar to that of Cal State Fullerton (108.2) – a team Loyola Marymount hung 88 on in the first round of the CIT. LMU played its fair share of moderately tempo games but showed a willingness to run against San Francisco and BYU – two teams very similar to Weber State. Certainly a game both side would like to win, but I once against don't expect much intensity on the defensive end which will get us over the 145 mark.



Tags: College Basketball Weber State Wildcats Loyola Marymount Lions Andrew Lange



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