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CBB Handicapping: Who has what it takes to win it all in 2011?
02.28.2011 11:11 AM
Printer Friendly
History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion. I write this article every year, and every year, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA National Champion among my elite level teams.
The last 13 NCAA champions and the team’s they beat in the title game are listed here: Kentucky over Utah in ’98, UConn over Duke in ’99, Michigan St over Florida in 2000, Duke over Arizona in ’01, Maryland over Indiana in ’02, Syracuse over Kansas in ’03, UConn over Georgia Tech in ’04, North Carolina over Illinois in ’05, Florida over UCLA in ’06, Florida over Ohio State in ’07, Kansas over Memphis in ’08, North Carolina over Michigan State in ’09 and Duke over Butler last year.
All 13 champions had very specific abilities, a very specific track record and a very specific statistical profile as a team that allowed them to go all the way. In Part 1 of this article, I’ll take a look at that statistical profile and make a “short
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College Basketball
Teddy Covers
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CBB Handicapping: Are soft rims the reason for Wisconsin Overs?
02.28.2011 07:49 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Have you noticed some of the obscene shooting performances by Wisconsin – and the opposition – in the Kohl Center this season? The most recent was last night's clinic in which the Badgers and Northwestern combined for the following offensive numbers: 49-94 52% FGs, 19-40 48% 3-pt, 24-31 77% FTs. The end result was a 78-63 UW win and another home game that went over the total. To date seven of Wisconsin's nine league games at the Kohl Center have gone over the total, and some of them weren’t even close. The last four home tilts have produce games scores of 141, 142, 138 and 138. All told, the average closing total on those nine home games was 123.5 and the average game score was 133.5.
The reason? In the handful of times I’ve watched Wisconsin play at home in Big Ten play, I have seen some generous bounces which suggest soft rims may be the culprit. And I’m apparently not the only one to notice. Type in “soft rims Kohl Center” into Google, and
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NCAA opens up on how it selects the tournament field
02.23.2011 12:15 PM
Printer Friendly
The NCAA recently held a conference for select media members to help better explain the selection process for March Madness. Jason King from Yahoo Sports was in attendance and
noted some of the key points
. If you subscribe to what King says, this information could perhaps be useful for bettors trying to cash in on various NCAA Tournament Prop Bets.
- Your first 10-12 games are just as important as your last 10-12 games. Example: Minnesota (17-10) made the "mock field" despite losing six of its last seven. The Gophers opened the year 13-4 with wins over North Carolina, West Virginia and Purdue.
- Conference record and conference strength mean nothing. Example: Alabama did not make the "mock field" despite a 9-2 SEC record. The reason was the Crimson Tide's early season losses to Seton Hall, Iowa and St. Peter's. Where a team resides in their respective conference
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Big Ten teams slow down pace due to thin rosters
02.22.2011 08:43 AM
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Michigan State at Minnesota -2.5 O/U 132.5
With the amount of timeouts in a college basketball game, going to war on a nightly basis with six or seven players isn't all that difficult. Ohio State has gone nine games in which it played seven or fewer players – only USC has played more games (14) under those parameters. But the key to playing with a short bench is
making sure you have the right horses
. Minnesota doesn't have that luxury. Since point guard Al Nolen was sidelined with an injury, the Gophers have slowed down their pace and really struggled to score. After netting 81 points against the worst defense in the Big Ten in Northwestern, Minnesota has posted scores of 61, 57, 69, 62, 62 and 63.
“I think you can have a top seven. It’s hard. People are pressuring you fullcourt, they are in your face. You want to play an up-tempo style, in our situation, we like
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Big Ten Betting News and Notes
02.17.2011 12:22 PM
Helmut Sports
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Submitted by Helmut Sports
Illinois
– Last week Bruce Webber had senior point guard Demetri McCamey come off the bench against Minnesota in an attempt to inspire better play. It looked as if the move worked as McCamey poured in 17 points on 4-of-7 three-point shooting en route to a key road win for the Illini. The experiment was short-lived as McCamey started the next time out against Purdue and went 1-of-10 from the floor. He rebounded with a strong effort against Michigan but if Illinois is going to make a run at the postseason, they’ll need McCamey to be at his best on a nightly basis.
Michigan State
– The Spartans entered the season ranked No. 2 after reaching last season’s Final Four and returning a handful of key players – and key additions. But nothing has gone right for this team since the start of Big Ten play. In their last six games without Korie Lucious, who had been kicked off the team, MSU is 2-4 and most of it has come from a lack of defense. Opponents are shooting 51%
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Odds on How Many Teams Per Conference will make the NCAA Tournament
02.17.2011 06:50 AM
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Odds now available at The Greek on home many teams from each conference will make the NCAA Tournament. We've put together a
very rough
estimate of teams that are in or on the bubble. The O/U on the SEC (6) is by far and away the weirdest line. The only way you can lose that bet is if they get seven teams in which doesn't seem mathematically possible at this point. With some of the heavy juice towards the under, it is almost as if you are betting whether or not a non-at large team will win their conference tournament.
ACC - 6
In: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Bubble: Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Miami
Atlantic-10 - 3u-300
In: Temple, Xavier
Bubble: Duquesne, Richmond
Big East - 11u-500
In: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, UConn, Louisville, Syracuse
Bubble: St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Ten - 6u-300
In: Ohio State, Purdue,
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Sportsbook gaffe allows bettors to cash in big
02.17.2011 06:17 AM
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UPDATE
Yesterday we discussed the "bad total" CRIS opened with on the Pepperdine vs. Loyola Marymount game. At the time we posted
the story
, CRIS and Pinnacle were hovering right around 138/137.5 but as game time approached, money continued to come in on the Over. CRIS finally closed the game at 140 while Pinnacle and 5Dimes were at 139. The end result was certainly not good for the books as LMU won 82-79. Below is a log of CRIS's line history.
Betting market hammers another potential sportbook error
02.16.2011 02:43 PM
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Big East Betting Preview: Louisville at Cincinnati
02.16.2011 11:41 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Louisville at Cincinnati -2 O/U 130
Recommendation: Over
The ongoing saga between Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin and star forward Yancy Gates leaves everyone in the dark as to how much or even if the junior will play tonight. He has seen the floor for just 29 minutes over the last two games and played only one minute in the second half of the Bearcats 59-57 home loss to St. John’s last Sunday. Regardless of how much or how little Gates plays here, I prefer the “over” for a couple of key reasons. First, Louisville is healthy now as Rakeem Buckles returned to the starting lineup four days ago and eased in by playing 14 minutes. Now that head coach Rick Pitino has a full complement of pieces to work with, I expect UL to really put the pedal to the metal and attempt to wear out Big East opponents.
Cincinnati’s veteran ball handling duo of Cashmere Wright and Dion Dixon won’t be overwhelmed but they can be sped up and forced into some turnovers (Cincinnati averages
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SEC Betting News and Notes
02.16.2011 07:26 AM
Alatex Sports
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Submitted by Alatex Sports
Heading down the home stretch in the SEC, it looks like the conference will get 3-5 bids to the NCAA Tournament. However, only Florida is a lock at this point, with Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia still with work left to do.
Kentucky continues to be money burners, as the Wildcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last six and 3-8 ATS in conference play. Their youth coupled with inflated pointspreads have provided consistent value on the opposition.
Vanderbilt just completed a three-game home sweep of South Carolina, Alabama and Kentucky to move above .500 in conference play. The Commodores must now take their act on the road with four of their next five away from Nashville. Vandy is just 1-3 SU on the road in conference play but two of those losses came in overtime.
Georgia is capable of beating anyone in the conference but they’ve been flighty at times (see needing overtime to beat Auburn at home). The Bulldogs have three though road games upcoming (at Tennessee, Florida and Alabama) and I wouldn’t
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Big Ten Betting Pick: Wisconsin at Purdue
02.16.2011 06:50 AM
Alatex Sports
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Submitted by Alatex Sports
Wisconsin at Purdue -4 O/U 125
Recommendation: Purdue
Purdue has been solid again at home this year, piling up a 13-0 SU mark along with a 5-1 ATS record in conference play. But as strong as Mackey Arena has been, this is just as much a play against Wisconsin. The Badgers are coming off one their biggest win of the season; a come from behind effort over Ohio State, who was undefeated at the time. I respect Bo Ryan’s ability to coach and motivate but given the general nature of college basketball, it is doubtful UW is going to have their A-game once again this evening. And like a lot of teams in the Big Ten, Wisconsin isn’t nearly as strong on the highway with losses at Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State and an overtime win at Iowa. A victory over the Badgers would go a long way in improving Purdue’s stock and I think they get the job done tonight in West Lafayette.
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