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College Basketball Betting: Boston College is nation's top underdog

02.13.2012     07:03 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
The Big Drive blitz continues as our top-rated selections continue to produce big profit following a pair of 20* winners with our Big Ten Game of the Month on Michigan State (+9) outright over Ohio State (58-48) and ACC Game of the Year winner on Boston College (+12.5) in their 66-65 last second loss at Virginia Tech; a game the Eagles led nearly the entire way. The Spartans snapped the Buckeyes’ 39-game home winning streak; second-longest in the nation.

Boston College entered Sunday’s ACC contest just 8-16 SU and 3-7 in conference play. They are on pace to set the school record for most losses in a season (21). The Eagles have a very young and inexperienced team with four freshman regulars. They are going through some growing pains, but despite the league’s worst scoring offense (57 ppg), the Eagles have been a solid profit-producer this season going 12-7 ATS. Yet few bettors have probably noticed or been willing to support Boston College since they are a “bad” team and can’t score much at all. Further proof that even at this stage of the season, losing teams and others can run under the radar and be real money-makers.

Along Read more

Tags: College Basketball Boston College Eagles __

NBA Handicapping: The impact injuries have on the pointspread

02.13.2012     06:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NBA injuries are enough to drive even the savviest of NBA bettors bonkers.  In this lockout shortened, condensed season, the nightly list of injuries could fill out an all-star team.  I’d take my chances with a roster composed of Derrick Rose, Eric Gordon, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Kyrie Irving, Amare Stoudamire, Danilo Gallinari, Anderson Varejao, DJ Augustin, Zack Randolph, Andrew Bogut and Al Horford – all of whom were out of action this past weekend – against the Eastern or Western Conference All-Stars.

The NBA betting markets are overwhelmed with injury information on a nightly basis.  Some of that information is important, but most of it isn’t, just random static that confuses many bettors while causing the markets to make ridiculous knee-jerk reactions.  The Knicks are my prime example for this article, because no team makes the case that injury info should NOT be affecting pointspreads as much as they actually do better than Mike D’Antoni’s squad.

New York’s Carmelo Anthony has been battling a series of nagging injuries all year: first his ankle, then his wrist, and now his Read more

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers

Betting Tips: Top College Basketball defensive teams

02.11.2012     08:34 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
It’s been over 25 years since the advent of the three-pointer and the shot clock changed the face of college basketball. The three-point shot has allowed teams to overcome larger deficits and created tremendous excitement for the game.  However, handicapping a team’s ability to make outside shots on a given night can become a bit frustrating at times with such variance. 

However, the basic principles and fundamental focus remains of great importance in basketball.  On offense the team must value the ball with a positive assist to turnover ratio. Good shot selection remains an absolute must if a team wants to experience success. The concepts of boxing out and rebounding are key to increasing the number of possessions, as is the percentage of loose balls and steals a team can create.  Converting a high percentage of foul shots is important, especially late in games.  Yet when determining a team’s success in college basketball there can be little dispute that the opponent’s field goal percentage is of key importance.  Field goal percentage defense is more important than points allowed because an opponent’s points Read more

Tags: College Basketball __

Saturday College Basketball Free Play: Tennessee Tech at Tennessee State

02.11.2012     08:20 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Tennessee Tech +3.5 at Tennessee State O/U 145.5
Recommendation: Tennessee Tech

No one in college basketball is immune to letdowns and that includes the likes of Kentucky, Ohio State and on down to the little guys. Tennessee State just picked up the program's biggest win since...I don't have the time to research it but it was huge when they beat undefeated Murray State on the road. I knew Murray State was going to lose at some point and in reality, TSU isn't that far removed from the Racers talent wise, but to go up there on national TV and score a victory was an impressive feat – how often are Tennessee State kids highlighted on ESPN? The Tigers have now won six straight including back-to-back on the road and have just one day to prepare for any angry Tennessee Tech squad that just lost at home to bottom feeder Eastern Illinois. Head coach Steve Payne said after the game it wasn't a lack of effort, but instead just a really bad shooting Read more

Tags: College Basketball Tennessee Tech Golden Eages Tennessee State Tigers Andrew Lange

NCAA Basketball Gambling: Virginia Tech in great spot vs. Boston College

02.10.2012     12:48 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Boston College at Virginia Tech

About as good a spot as any for Virginia Tech this Sunday as it plays host to Boston College. The Hokies are in desperate need of a win with just a 2-7 mark in ACC play. Their two wins both came by two points but they also have league losses by 3, 4, 2, 2 and 4. One of those losses came on the road against Boston College, 61-59, back in mid-January. BC meanwhile is off its biggest win of the season, a 64-60 triumph over Florida State – who has wins over Duke and North Carolina. Also note that last season, on senior night, Boston College waltzed into Blacksburg – after VT beat then No. 1 Duke – and won 76-61. Great spot for Tech but beware of the potential “tax” due to the favorable situationals.

Tags: College Basketball Virginia Tech Hokies Boston College Eagles

Big Drive Blitz continues in College Basketball

02.10.2012     06:59 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
We’re on a solid run again in February college basketball as our top-rated Big Drive plays continue to hit the net and cash the green.  Iowa came up short Thursday but a 3-1 night overall has us profitable on the evening. No close call on our top-play 15* Big Drive side selection winner Wednesday on Michigan (-3), as the Wolverines whacked Nebraska 62-46. The Cornhuskers put on a truly embarrassing performance while scoring just two points the opening eight minutes and finishing the first half with 15 points on 5-of-27 FG shooting including 0-for-10 from three.

Here is my analysis of our Michigan play provided to clients. We’re now 7-2 on our top-play Big Drive CBB selections in February (+9 units) and 39-17 (70%) since the end of November on our Big Drive top plays. Continue to shop for the best lines and we’ll continue to fire for the green and provide plenty of plays down the stretch.

If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to study stats, isolate solid situations, understand systems, second meets, coaching, home/road dichotomy and more, then join me as we continue to bang the boards and proficiently project more CBB winners Read more

Tags: College Basketball __

College Basketball Handicapping: Schedule toughens for top teams

02.08.2012     07:04 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
For those that follow college basketball scheduling and like to note strength of schedule, RPI and more, here is an update on top team Kentucky’s schedule along with others of note.
Between Kentucky and Louisville, their combined 15 remaining regular season games include nine against the top 35 teams in the RPI.

Kentucky is No. 3 in RPI and passed its test Tuesday with a big home win over Florida. The Wildcats have four of their remaining six home games against teams currently ranked in AP Top 25. Kentucky’s strength of schedule ranked 83rd in the RPI prior to playing Florida, and is projected by to be No. 50 nationally at the end of the regular season.

Ohio State held off Purdue yesterday and the Buckeyes are projected to go from No. 34 to No. 12 in SOS by season’s end and join Kentucky and Syracuse as projected No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is No. 4 in RPI currently.

North Carolina plays Duke tonight in a key ACC showdown with first place at stake, and the Tar Heels are projected to go from No. 42 to No. 12 by seasons end while Read more

Tags: College Basketball __

College Basketball Free Play: Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats

02.07.2012     01:54 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Florida +9 at Kentucky O/U 141.5
Recommendation: Florida

The Florida Gators have just about everything I like to look for out of a road underdog.  We’ve seen the Gators in this role twice already this season at Ohio State and at Syracuse; two teams – like the Kentucky squad they’ll face tonight – with legitimate national championship potential.   Florida was in both games right through the final buzzer, losing by four and seven points while covering the pointspread in both instances.

This is nothing new or different for Billy Donovan’s Gators.  This team has the type of veteran leadership we love to see in the backcourt, with senior guard Erving Walker and junior guard Kenny Boynton combining for 191 career starts between them.  No surprise then, that in the Walker-Boynton era, Florida is 16-5-1 ATS as underdogs.  And this year’s Gator team might be the best of the bunch! Read more

Tags: College Basketball Florida Gators Kentucky Wildcats Teddy Covers

College Basketball Handicapping: Efficiency margins in league play

02.07.2012     11:15 AM     Printer Friendly
Basketball Prospectus' John Gasaway put together a fabulous blog breaking down the conference-by-conference points per possession scored and allowed in league play.

Here are the top efficiency margins (PPP-Opponent PPP)
ACC - Florida State +0.14
Big XII - Kansas +0.18
Big East - Syracuse +0.19
Big Ten - Ohio State +0.27
PAC-12 - California +0.14
SEC - Kentucky +0.28
Atlantic-10 - Temple +0.12
Colonial - Drexel +0.17
C-USA - Memphis +0.16
Horizon - Cleveland State +0.19
Missouri Valley - Wichita State +0.18
Mountain West - New Mexico +0.21
West Coast - St. Mary's +0.22
WAC - Nevada +0.12

Tags: College Basketball

College Basketball Gambling: Purdue a big underdog at Ohio State

02.07.2012     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Purdue at Ohio State -14.5 O/U 128

We'll see what type of pride Purdue has tonight in Columbus after getting blasted 78-61 at home against rival Indiana last Saturday. Without the services of JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore – both in the NBA – the Boilermakers have really struggled to get easy looks on the offensive end. But perhaps more startling is their dramatic decline defensively. Purdue hasn't been a double-digit underdog since 2008 (+10 at Wisconsin). Last year, the Boilermakers were catching +7.5 at Ohio State and lost 87-64.

Defensive efficiency vs. Big Ten (conference rank)
2012 - 107.6 (7th)
2011 - 99.1 (1st)
2010 - 94.7 (2nd)
2009 - 95.9 (3rd)
2008 - 94.3 (2nd)

Tags: College Basketball Purdue Boilermakers Ohio State Buckeyes


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