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NFL Handicapping: Bettors jump on New England Week 1 at Miami
08.19.2011 01:39 PM
Printer Friendly
Following New England's 31-14 win over Tampa Bay last night, the betting markets reacted in a big way, taking the Patriots from 5.5-point road favorites to -6.5 and even -7 at some sportsbooks (Jazz, Caesars) for their regular season Week 1 game against
Miami
.
Just as a comparison to some of last year's pointspreads,
New England
was -5 in Week 1 at Cincinnati, +1 at Miami in Week 4 and a modest -5 at home against Minnesota in Week 8. Miami meanwhile was a home underdog just once (+3 vs. Pittsburgh) last season and was favored over both the New York Jets and as mentioned the Patriots. The Dolphins however were outscored 79-21 in both meetings against New England.
Line history courtesy of CRIS.
Tags:
NFL
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
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NFL Preseason Betting Alert: Rain possible for Carolina-Miami game
08.19.2011 01:16 PM
Printer Friendly
Carolina at Miami -6 O/U 34
Potential rain/thunderstorms expected in the Miami area tonight -- 95% chance at 5 pm local. Game starts at 4:30 pm PT/7:30 pm ET. The line and total has held firm for much of today with the Dolphins a 6-point favorite with a total of 34.
Tags:
NFL
Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers
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NFLX Betting Notes: Broncos will play starters into second quarter
08.19.2011 12:52 PM
Printer Friendly
Buffalo at Denver -4 O/U 36.5
The
Denver
Broncos will
play their starters
into the second quarter but unlikely for an entire half for Saturday's game against
Buffalo
. The first-team offense and defense played only one series in Week 1's contest against Dallas. Quarterback Kyle Orton will start while Tom Tebow and Brady Quinn both split time in practice with the second unit.
"Exactly how far, I don't know yet. Depends on how the game goes," Fox said.
"That'll be a game-time decision, from a competitive standpoint," Fox said. "I'll talk about that after the game, not before the game."
Tags:
NFL
Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
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NFLX Betting Notes: New Orleans Saints starters will play 20-25 snaps
08.19.2011 08:04 AM
Printer Friendly
New Orleans -1.5 at Houston O/U 37
New Orleans
head coach Sean Payton said the starters will go
20-25 snaps
which should get them well into the second quarter and potentially halftime against
Houston
. The Saints were one of the bigger betting market movers; opening as 2.5-point underdog but now favored as high as -2 (Grande, Jazz).
“From a snap count, somewhere between 20 and 25 plays,’’ Payton said. “Hopefully close to 25 plays. That may or may not get us to the half, but somewhere in that range.’’
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NFLX Betting Notes: Miami Dolphins starters slated for first half
08.19.2011 07:15 AM
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Carolina at Miami -6 O/U 34
Miami
is expected to play its starters for most of the
first half
tonight against
Carolina
. Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall will make their 2011 debuts. Also expected are some more complex blitz packages against Carolina quarterback Cam Newton.
"Well, I told the team today is that [the starters] all need to be ready to play until I’m tired of them playing, so I don’t know what that is, I don’t have a number yet so we’ll see where we go, but I think we will see some guys in there deep into the second quarter and maybe into the half."
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Grantland sends author to Vegas for football betting tour of duty
08.18.2011 02:46 PM
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Article from
Grantland.com
on NFL Regular Season Over/Under Wins and some of the big movers and shakers (see: Philadelphia, Arizona going up and Seattle, Chicago going down). Looks like they've sent a staffer to live in Vegas and cover his exploits as a bettor throughout the football season.
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NFL Preseason Betting Notes: Bengals offense not the only unit to struggle
08.18.2011 11:45 AM
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Cincinnati at NY Jets -6.5 O/U 35.5
The
Cincinnati
Bengals lack of offense in Week 1 of the preseason didn't come as a real shock with the team adjusting to offensive coordinator Jay Gruden's system. Perhaps more concerning though was the
lack of defense
as Detroit's four quarterback combined to go 23-of-33 for 280 yards and three touchdowns.
"It's embarrassing and we have to go back to the film. Overall we all made mistakes," defensive tackle Domata Peko said. "Thank God it is not Week 1 of the regular season. It's Week 1 of the preseason. We have to settle down and get it right."
"This is the first time this team is playing together. It's a new system," said Green, who had four receptions for 29 yards. "It's
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Results of NFL teams after 3-13 or worse seasons since 2002
08.18.2011 11:02 AM
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Article about the
Carolina
Panthers and their
potential to improve
this season. The Panthers fell from 12-4 in 2008 to 8-8 in 2009 to 2-14 last year. In looking at past teams who endured a similar path (good, to mediocre, to really bad), there are some good examples of upward trajectory after hitting rock bottom. If you are a believer, the trajectory for Carolina doesn't been to be much with the team currently lined at 4.5 wins.
Below is a chart of teams with 3-13 records or worse and how they fared the following season dating back to 2002.
NFL Results After Seasons of 3-13 or worse since 2002
Year
Team
Record
Following Season
Difference
ATS Following Season
2010
Carolina
2-14
???
???
???
2009
St. Louis
1-15
7-9
+6
10-6
2009
Tampa Bay
3-13
10-6
+7
10-5-1
2009
Detroit
2-14
6-10
+4
12-4
2008
Detroit
0-16
2-14
+2
4-10-2
2008
St. Louis
2-14
1-15
-1
7-9
2008
Kansas City
2-14
4-12
+2
7-9
2007
Miami
1-15
11-5
+10
8-8
2007
St. Louis
3-13
2-14
-1
6-10
2006
Oakland
2-14
4-12
+2
6-10
2006
Detroit
3-13
7-9
+4
6-9-1
2005
New Orleans
3-13
10-6
+7
10-6
2005
Houston
2-14
6-10
+4
7-9
2004
San Francisco
2-14
4-12
+2
8-8
2002
Cincinnati
2-14
8-8
+6
9-6-1
2002
Detroit
3-13
5-11
+2
9-7
Results
Avg. 5.8-10.2
Avg. +3.7 wins
119-116-5
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NFLX Betting Notes: New Orleans Saints' injury list lengthens
08.18.2011 06:22 AM
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New Orleans -1.5 at Houston O/U 36.5
The
New Orleans
Saints are a little banged up with
16 of their 90 players
forced to sit out Wednesday's practice. The Saints opened as a 2.5-point road underdog at
Houston
for Saturday but heavy money has them now a 1.5-point favorite.
"It's a bigger list than I'd like right now," Payton said. "It seems like in the last two or three days, it's gotten bigger."
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NFL Preseason Betting Notes: Eagles starters will play first half vs. Steelers
08.17.2011 07:12 AM
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Philadelphia at Pittsburgh -3 O/U 33.5
Reports out of
Philadelphia
Eagles camp have the starters playing the
entire first half
of Thursday's game at
Pittsburgh
. There are however more than a few players not expected to play due to injury.
The biggest names, of course, are wide receivers Smith (knee) and Jeremy Maclin (illness) and defensive tackle Mike Patterson (seizure). Smith and Maclin haven't practiced with the team yet this summer and Patterson is still on a slow return after being hospitalized following a seizure he suffered on the field.
Also missing Thursday's game will be defensive end Brandon Graham (knee), tackles Ryan Harris (back), Winston Justice (knee) and
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