MLB Betting News: Cleveland's defense has been beyond bad
Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians
Good article from FanGraphs
on Cleveland's porous defense thus far. Opposing teams have a ridiculously high BABIP of .331 which has offset the pitching staff's high strikeout and low home run rates.
The problem for the Indians is that they’re not making the hard plays or the easy plays. 11 missed easy plays might not seem like much, but were they to keep up that pace over the entire season, that’s 92 easy plays — plays that other teams are getting at a close-to-perfect rate — that turn into hits or runs or extra pitches.
MLB Handicapping: Cincinnati's bullpen has been awful, should improve
Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds
It's been a rough start to the year for Cincinnati's bullpen
(5.77 ERA, 4.87 xFIP) but things should start to improve moving forward. Sean Marshall just returned from a bum shoulder. Jonathan Broxton is also working his way back from a forearm injury. And Aroldis Chapman is expected to face live hitters today after getting hit with a line drive during spring training.
"When you don't have your traditional closer, like Chapman," Reds manager Bryan Price said, "it elevates everyone up in the different positions. We certainly need to perform. We've got guys that have a history of performing. Logan and J.J. have been very, very accomplished pitchers with us the last couple of years.
"And we know they're certainly capable of pitching better than they have. I'm very confident they will."
Pro-online gambling lawmakers say let states decide
Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds
: Let individual states decide whether or not they want to offer legalized online gambling.
New Jersey Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto, D-Secaucus, said in a press release that online gaming “is clearly an issue best left for the states to decide and regulate.”
"It is disappointing that certain elements are working to dismantle New Jersey's landmark internet gambling law," said Sweeney. “We have quickly become a national leader in the world of internet gambling, and we simply cannot afford to have all our hard work and effort undone by the whims of a few down in Washington."
MLB Handicapping: Philadelphia's Hamels set to make first start
Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Los Angeles Dodgers Philadelphia (Hamels) at LA Dodgers (Greinke) -160 O/U 6.5
Philadelphia's Cole Hamels (tendinitis) will make his seasonal debut
tonight against the Dodgers. According to manager Ryne Sandberg, Hamels will have no restrictions.
“He’s [Hamels] stretched out as a normal starter would out of Spring Training, so he’s pitched up to 90 pitches so he won’t have any restrictions,” Sandberg told Angelo Cataldi and the WIP Morning Show. “We’ll just watch him pitch and take a look at him and see how he does, but it’s great to have him in the rotation with the other guys we have.
MLB Handicapping: Milwaukee's bullpen has been great but worked very hard
Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee's bullpen has long been a running joke in the posting forum even though it finished with the fifth-best ERA in MLB (3.19) in 2013 – a number that would have been significantly better if not for John Axford's circus-like 54.2 innings (4.45 ERA). This year's group, sans Axford, has been even better (2.55 ERA) and one of the key reasons why the Brew Crew are a league-best 15-5. But after playing 14 consecutive days and involved in a number of close, tight ball games, the appearances and innings have started to mount
"It's hard when you go extra innings, and already because we've been winning, we've been using certain guys a lot," said manager Ron Roenicke to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. "I was looking at the sheet today, (pitching coach Rick Kranitz) and I were going over it, and certain guys have pitched a lot."
NBA Playoff Betting Consensus: Gamblers expect Game 1 losers to bounce back
Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's three NBA Playoff games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.
Chicago -5 (66.2%) vs. Washington
Indiana -7 (58.0%) vs. Atlanta
Toronto -5 (56.0%) vs. Brooklyn
Brooklyn-Toronto OVER 190.5 (71.3%)
Washington-Chicago OVER 180 (59.3%)
Atlanta-Indiana OVER 186.5 (54.6%)
College Football Gambling: Texas' Strong says it'll take time to build a contender
Tags: College Football Texas Longhorns
Before you plunk down $100 to win $6,000 (available at 5Dimes) on Texas to win the 2015 BCS National Championship, you may want to read first-year head coach Charlie Strong's take on his team's chances
. Success? Probably. Title game berth? Umm, no.
"We have everything available, and I don't know why we can't be successful," Strong told fans in Fort Worth during the first stop on his bus tour, according to the Austin American-Statesman. "There's no reason for us not to be. Now, I can't tell you how soon it's going to be. Don't hold me to that. Don't say, 'Ooh, coach said next year we'll be in the national ...' We will not be in the national championship game."
Sports Betting Podcast 4-22-2014 with Handicappers Rob Veno, Sammy P, and Erin Rynning
|Tags: MLB NHL NBA Rob Veno Sammy P Erin Rynning|
NHL Playoffs Handicapper Free Play: Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings
|Submitted by Sammy P Sports|Tags: NHL Boston Bruins Detroit Red Wings Sammy P Boston -140 at Detroit O/U 5
Boston heads to Detroit tonight with the series knotted up at one game apiece. The Bruins played their typical grind it out game throughout Game 1, but couldn't seem to break through offensively. It took a great individual effort from Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk late in the third period to get the Red Wings the 1-0 win. Game 2 was much different as Boston was able to take advantage of its chances and put some goals on the board. They went to the net hard and they were rewarded. They didn't deviate from their plan and they stifled Detroit's offense once again allowing just one goal in a 4-1 win. Detroit's home ice advantage has been virtually nonexistent the past two seasons as they were a meager 18-13-10 at Joe Louis this regular season and just 4-4 over the past two postseason. Boston owned the best road record in the Eastern Conference this season at 23-12-6 and in the past three postseason the Bruins are 6-3 away from home in the first round. Going into Detroit will be just another day at the job for the big bad Bruins. Boston has the confidence and swagger back after Game 2’s win and they won't be looking back this series. I'm expecting a low scoring grinding type of game which favors the road side. Expect the Bruins to get the job done at the reasonable price.
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MLB Handicapping: Dickey struggles vs. American League continue
Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore (Gonzalez) at Toronto (Dickey) -135 O/U 8.5
With the exception of a quality start vs. the Yankees – a team he has historically fared very well against – RA Dickey has really struggled. In three outings against Minnesota, Houston, and Tampa, Dickey allowed 16 earned runs and an alarming 14 walks. He claims he's healthy and his stuff is fine
but it appears that teams are taking a more patient approach against the knuckleballer and forcing him to come in the zone. In three starts vs. the Orioles last season, Dickey allowed 16 earned runs (7.71 ERA) and five home runs.
“It’s amazing that he can keep that thing in the zone period,” manager John Gibbons said of the number of walks that Dickey has amassed this season.
“To be able to throw that thing in the strike zone is pretty tough as it is, but there’s no question it has been hurting him.”
NBA Gambling Trends: Chicago Bulls have strong track record off poor defensive performance
Tags: NBA Washington Wizards Chicago Bulls Washington at Chicago -5.5 O/U 181.5
Fairly strong trend in play for tonight's Washington-Chicago
Game 2. Under Tom Thibodeau, the Bulls are 39-20 SU and 36-22-1 ATS off a loss in which they allowed 100+ points. In those 59 games, Chicago allowed an average of 92.1 points per game. This season, under those same parameters, they are 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS including a current run of 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS.
“Our defense wasn’t very good,” coach Tom Thibodeau said. “You have to adjust to how the game is being called. We can’t allow it to take away from our aggressiveness. We have to play hard without fouling. We have to be disciplined.
NBA Playoff Handicapping: Indiana Pacers try to fix offense on the fly
Tags: NBA Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers Atlanta at Indiana -7.5 O/U 187
Never a shortage of issues with the Indiana Pacers these days. Here we have the simple act of sharing
– something the team addressed and obviously didn’t solve three weeks ago
"I think the offensive change is simple: Share the ball more," Vogel said. "We gotta be effective and go inside more, and we gotta be effective when we go inside."
"We need to pound the ball a little more, (we've been) hesitant on our passes," Hill said. "We feed off our two bigs. Roy and David (West) are some of the best bigs in the league. The more damage they can do inside to open up the outside, the better we're going to be. I think we're relying on jump shots a little bit too much and not pounding it inside and not playing good, physical basketball."
MLB Handicapping: Pirates already struggling to duplicate magical 2013
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh's starting rotation hasn't been particularly sharp
the first three weeks of the season with a collective ERA of 4.27 (4.62 FIP). Probably not time to panic just yet but bettors are already aware that it is going to be very difficult for this unit to match last year's output. AJ Burnett's near 400 innings over the last two years are gone. Jeff Locke is the poster child for regression if and when he returns. Francisco Lirano's velocity is down which isn't a good sign for a guy with past arm problems. Wandy Rodriguez's velocity is also down and he’s now on the DL. Charlie Morton is off a career-year but has only one quality start in four tries. And Edison Volquez has looked great but you wonder how long he can keep it together both mentally and physically. As if currently stands, Pittsburgh's rotation is still on better footing that most of the National League but off a year in which everything broke right, an injury or two sprinkled in with some regression could spell doom for a team that struggles mightily to score runs. Of their current rotation, Gerrit Cole is arguably the only one who can outperform last year's numbers. If Volquez stays healthy he can certainly improve on 2013's disaster but again, his track record is spotty. I love what pitching coach Ray Searage has done – particularly the emphasis on getting groundballs – but I’ll have a close eye on this group moving forward.
"We are addressing some problems right now," Searage said. "Sometimes we're getting some hiccups, there is no doubt about that. We're not the sharpest that we can be, and that's going to take some time, but the [bullpen sessions] were addressed. We are having conversations on hitters and stuff and execution of pitches and what we have to do in order to be successful and be consistent. There's a lot of things that we're addressing."
NBA Playoff Betting Consensus: Gamblers like Monday's games OVER the total
Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers
Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's two NBA Playoff games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle. Also note that Bookmaker/CRIS is the only major sportsbook offshore or in Las Vegas to currently have Oklahoma City -6.5. The rest of the market has -7.
Oklahoma City -6.5 (51.0%) vs. Memphis
Golden State +8 (62.9%) at LA Clippers
Memphis-Oklahoma City OVER 190.5 (73.1%)
Golden State-LA Clippers OVER 212.5 (77.2%)
Erin Rynning's NBA Playoffs 80-46 63% L6 Years
Tags: NBA Erin Rynning
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MLB Handicapper: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange San Diego (Cashner) at Milwaukee (Peralta) -115 O/U 8
Two premium arms on the hill in Milwaukee with San Diego’s Andrew Cashner taking on the Brewers' Wily Peralta. Cashner has been nothing short of perfect through four starts with a 1.27 ERA. He's posted 27 strikeouts in 28.1 innings and perhaps more importantly a sweet 46-30 groundball-to-fly ball ratio. He'll be challenged by this Milwaukee's lineup but should have an advantage coming from the right-handed side. Like Cashner, Peralta has swing-and-miss stuff but has also garnered a lot groundballs (36-21 ratio). Offensively, the Padres have scored three or fewer runs in 13 of their 19 games and getting away from Petco has hardly been the cure with 2.3 runs per game in six games on the highway. Milwaukee's offense has feasted on the likes of sub-par starters Kyle Kendrick, Roberto Hernandez, Wandy Rodriguez, and Clay Buchholz (prior to his spike in velocity). Hard-throwing right-handers like Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, and Garrett Cole kept them under wraps and I expect Cashner to do the same. Both bullpens have performed well thus far and with rain in the forecast we're likely to see the roof closed. Play this game under.
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-21-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers
Tags: NBA MLB Teddy Covers
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy and host Andrew Lange broke down the entire MLB slate as well as tonight's two NBA Playoff matchups.
Teddy Covers - MLB EGOTB and NBA
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
British sportsbooks shut down due to fire
Tags: NBA MLB Teddy Covers
Gibraltar, a small British territory that is home to multiple sportsbooks including William Hill, was left without power
last weekend when a power station caught fire.
"It's just one of those freak events nobody could have predicted.
"There will be those who will claim they would have backed a winner but there will be others who have been saved from backing a loser."
NBA Gambling: Houston's Beverley questionable for Game 2
Tags: NBA Houston Rockets Portland Trailblazers
Houston point guard Patrick Beverley (knee) is questionable
for Wednesday's Game 2 vs. Portland. Beverley missed time during the regular season and reaggravated the same knee during Game 1's overtime loss. He's expected to have an MRI today. According to ESPN's Real Plus-Minus, Beverley ranks 14th in the NBA and fourth among point guards.
"All of us are saddened by the fact that Pat hurt his knee again," Dwight Howard said, according to the Houston Chronicle. "I didn't want to see anything happen to him. ... It hurts all of us. We just have to step up here as a team and win it for him."
NBA Playoff Handicapping: Oddsmakers adjust series prices
Quick look at the adjusted series prices (CRIS) for the NBA Playoffs following last weekend's Game 1's.
Brooklyn (1-0) -305
Oklahoma City (1-0) -800
Atlanta (1-0) +155
Golden State (1-0) +155
LA Clippers -181
San Antonio (1-0) -1300
Miami (1-0) -3000
Washington (1-0) -160
Portland (1-0) -145
Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Recapping NBA Playoff Game 1's
|Submitted by Teddy Covers|Tags: NBA Miami Heat Charlotte Bobcats San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers
There were eight opening round NBA Playoff Series that started this past weekend. The lower seeded road teams – all underdogs in Game 1 – went 6-2 ATS, including five outright upset winners. There were four games that flew Over the total, three that stayed Under and one (Miami-Charlotte) that finished right in between the opening and closing total.
This is just the start of a two month NBA Playoff marathon, and those Game 1’s may not be indicative of how these opening round series are likely to play out. Here are some key note and quotes for each series following those Game 1’s.
Miami looked sluggish and lethargic for extended stretches of their opener against Charlotte, but took over the game with an 18-4 run in the fourth quarter when LeBron James was sitting on the bench. Head coach Erik Spoelstra: “We were flat to start. I think our guys were just anxious." LeBron: “That group that was in once I took that break at the 10-minute mark in the fourth quarter, they just bumped the lead. Obviously, to have three Hall of Famers in the game when I'm out of the game, CB, D-Wade and Ray ... that was big-time." Meanwhile, Bobcats leading scorer and rebounder Al Jefferson was in a walking boot after the game. His quote? “Just got to suck it up, man.”
The veteran Chicago Bulls led the inexperienced Washington Wizards by double digits at home in the second half, but were badly outplayed down the stretch, outscored 45-24 to close out the game. Joakim Noah: “Up 13, we exhaled and they came back. Bad turnovers. They got some easy scores. We got to make our adjustments. This is chess. It isn't checkers.” Head coach Tom Thibodeau didn’t sound too concerned: “There are a lot of things you can do to help your team win. We're capable of playing a lot better.” Randy Wittman certainly wasn’t outcoached in Game 1: “There will be times in the playoffs where we have to survive and stay in the game with six or seven straight possessions and not score. Both teams can do that. Who is going to stay in the fight when you do that? We did. We had a period where they outplayed us, no question about it. We had to get that back, and in the second half, I thought we did."
The veteran Brooklyn Nets, however, played great basketball down the stretch of the fourth quarter in their win over Toronto, led by Paul Pierce. “You just get that feeling, you've been in those situations a number of times. I don't get rattled in the fourth quarter, down the stretch or in playoff settings. I've been in pretty much every playoff setting that you can imagine. I just try to stay calm and bring my calmness to the game." Veteran Deron Williams helped Brooklyn get off to a strong start with 18 first half points: “We didn't shoot well from 3 tonight but we made up for that by taking care of the ball, good defense down the stretch, making plays offensively. That's why we got the win." Toronto’s problem was turnovers, 19 of them to be exact. Head coach Dwane Casey: “That was the biggest issue.”
While reading mainstream media NBA Playoff predictions last week, it was very clear that most pundits hadn’t watched the Indiana Pacers play very much after the All-Star break. It’s not like this Pacers team has a substantial history of recent playoff success – they’ve won three series in the last nine postseasons. And following Indiana’s Game 1 loss at home to the Hawks, it was very clear that the Pacers regular season struggles have not been solved. Leading scorer Paul George: “It's frustrating. It's frustrating, but it's a long series. It's just one game and that's the way we have to look at it." The Hawks scored 101 points on the leagues’s top regular season defense. Kyle Korver: “I thought our ball movement was great. That's one of the things we've tried to play to all year and tonight it kind of worked out."
The Memphis Grizzlies trailed by 22 points at the half in their Game 1 loss at Oklahoma City; missing each of their first 18 shots from outside the paint. The cut the deficit to a single bucket in the second half, but couldn’t maintain that momentum, losing by 14. Zack Randolph: “We've got to make adjustments to get off to a better start. We can't exert so much energy trying to come back from 20 points. It's the first game, we've got to stick together. We've been here before, we know what we've got to do.” Mike Conley: “We got good looks. I can't say it was anything other than that. We got good looks. We got some open 3s. Our bigs got some good looks in the post. We just didn't knock them down. We have to be more focused at the line as well. Making free throws is a big deal for us. We got opportunities. We've got to make them."
The San Antonio Spurs were the only team over the weekend to win their Game 1 matchup without covering the pointspread. Why? The Spurs weren’t sharp offensively, hitting just 3-17 from three point range while getting only 23 points off the league’s best bench. But Tim Duncan hit shots when it mattered most – down the stretch – as the Spurs rallied from ten points down in the final eight minutes. Duncan, talking about their offensive struggles: "It's always tough to change gears from the regular season to the playoffs when you're preparing for a team and they're preparing for you specifically.” Dirk Nowitzki talking about the Mavs solid defensive execution: “We got killed on 3s in the first four outings this year. It was no secret; we stayed home a little more on 3-point shooters, but you've got to give them something, and Duncan in there is obviously still solid."
The Blazers young All-Star duo of LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard were pretty much unstoppable in Portland’s wild overtime win over Houston; combining for 77 points and 27 rebounds between them. Aldridge: “This is one of those games where I could show my team that I wanted to lead.” When Aldridge fouled out in overtime, he had some choice words for Lillard: "I said: 'Take it over.'" Lillard: “When you've got your best player playing like that, it fires you up. When he went out of the game, I felt like our team ... had to have L.A.'s back and come through for him." Rockets coach Kevin McHale, who has watched his team struggle defensively all season long: “(Aldridge has) been a handful for us all year long. We just didn't have any answers for him."
Golden State didn’t have defensive low post stopper Andrew Bogut for their playoff series opener against the Clippers. They committed 21 turnovers. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined to miss 23 of their 36 shot attempts. And yet the Warriors still won in SU fashion on the road as seven point underdogs. Thompson: “The pressure is all on them. They can't afford to go down 0-2 and go on the road. It's tough to come back down 0-2." LA’s Blake Griffin was limited to 19 minutes before fouling out. “We made mistakes. Some of us, myself included, maybe wanted it too much and came in with an expectation. We just need to relax." Head coach Doc Rivers: “There were a lot of times where we lost our trust in each other. We made too many mistakes to win."
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
|Submitted by ER Sports|Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Erin Rynning Baltimore (Jimenez) at Boston (Peavy) -155 O/U 8.5
The Orioles will send the enigmatic Ubaldo Jimenez to the bump. The one time flame-thrower has been up and down for much of the last three seasons. His velocity has dramatically fallen since his days with the Colorado Rockies. As a rookie in 2007, Jimenez’s fastball averaged 97 mph. This year’s fastball is hovering in the low 90’s. From 2008-10, Jimenez threw 630 innings – half of which in Coors Field where pitchers are stressed even more than normal in order to gain movement in the thin air. Jimenez is also quirky with his mechanics and rarely goes three of four consecutive starts without some sort of issue. The dip in velocity and poor mechanics are directly tied to his current 7.31 ERA. Boston’s lineup led the league in runs scored last season en route to a World Series title. They’ve been slow out of the box in 2014 (24th runs scored, .345 slugging) but have a great chance to feast on damaged goods in Fenway. Like Jimenez, Boston’s Jake Peavy no longer has premium stuff and some of his current numbers (4.62 FIP, .205 BABIP, 100% LOB) pointing towards eventual regression. But he is still in far better form (1.93 ERA, .179 BA against) and far more trustworthy at this point that compared to Jimenez. In fact, Peavy is just the type of crafty veteran to give this impatient, free-swinging (5.8 MLB-worst walk rate) Orioles lineup problems. I’m laying the moderate price with this home side.
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Miami Marlins Andrew Lange Seattle (Elias) -115 at Miami (Alvarez) O/U 7.5
This will be the second straight start I've supported Seattle's Roenis Elias, a talented left-hander making his first run through the league. Elias has an above average fastball (92-93 mph) and good command of his off-speed offerings. He's probably been a bit fortunate and may run into trouble at times when teams get a second and third look but he's got legitimate American League middle-of-the-rotation stuff which is more than I can say for his counterpart, Miami's Henderson Alvarez. Despite being an extreme groundballer, Alvarez is very hittable having allowed 25 hits in 14.2 innings this season. His BABIP suggests some of that was bad luck but it is his overall splits point towards continued struggles vs. the Mariners. Because of his sinkerball ways, Alvarez gives right handers a tough time (.253/.292/.385). But against lefties, he really struggles (.291/.354./.470). Seattle has the ability to send as many as seven left-handed sticks to the plate. The betting markets simply don’t allow talented, young arms to hold much value for long so let’s get in on Elias with the less than -120 price tag.
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-18-2014 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning
|Tags: MLB NBA Ian Cameron Erin Rynning|
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Blue Jay at Cleveland Indians
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange Toronto (Hutchinson) at Cleveland (Masterson) -140 O/U 7.5
When the mechanics of a bigger, taller pitch go awry, it can become a very difficult process of getting back to "normal." Cleveland's Justin Masterson isn't "right" and as a result his velocity is way down, his control is out of whack, and he's gotten pounded around in back-to-back starts (10 earned runs). I've bet a ton of Masterson's games over the last few seasons – on, against, under, and over – and these swoons of good and bad pitching have a tendency to go from extended stretches. Toronto's Drew Hutchinson has some upside with strong performances against Tampa and Baltimore. In looking at the young right-hander's numbers, we see the traditional right/lefty splits. Notice that his lone bad start of the season (3.1 IP, 6 ERs) came in New York against the Yankees who can stack the lineup with a slew of left-handed bats. Cleveland has that ability as well so I expect the Tribe to plate a few runs off of Hutchinson. Weather and wind not expected to be a factor as we fade them market and step in with a play on the over.
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