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| |  | MLB Betting Notes: Different year, similar results for Minnesota's starting pitching | We talked about Minnesota's crappy pitching on today's Sportsmemo Podcast ( listen here). Hardball Talk to a closer look at the numbers compared to last year. The team’s 4.2 strikeouts per 9 innings rate is one that stands out as horrendous/comical. Tomorrow they send Samuel Deduno to the hill who unlike Pelfrey, Worley, and friends, has legitimate MLB stuff. The only problem is Deduno doesn't know where it's going and last season admitted as such. In 84.2 big league innings, he's walked 57 batters.
Also funny is in mid-May of last year we posted a blog on how bad Minny's starting pitching had been...
203.2 innings, 146 earned runs, 6.45 ERA, 250 hits, 38 home runs, 66 walks and 118 strikeouts
This year's numbers are eerily similar…
223.0 innings, 141 earned runs, 5.59 ERA, 308 hits, 32 home runs, 56 walks, 103 strikeouts
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| | NBA Betting Trends: Markets prefer to bet postseason games UNDER the total | A look back at the NBA totals market over the last two rounds of the playoffs. The results are dead even at 12-12-1 over/under with two games going under in regulation but over as a result of overtime. Of the 25 games, 17 were bet under the total based on CRIS’s opening and closing lines.
Indiana at Miami - 5/22
Opener: 183.5
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER
Memphis at San Antonio - 5/21
Opener: 184
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER (Under in regulation)
Memphis at San Antonio - 5/19
Opener: 184
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER
Indiana at New York - 5/18
Opener: 178
Closer: 179
Result: OVER
Indiana at New York - 5/16
Opener: 179
Closer: 182
Result: UNDER
San Antonio at Golden State - 5/16
Opener: 196
Closer: 194.5
Result: UNDER
Chicago at Miami - 5/15
Opener: 183
Closer: 182
Result: OVER
Memphis at Oklahoma City - 5/15
Opener: 185
Closer: 185.5
Result: UNDER
New York at Indiana - 5/14
Opener: 180.5
Closer: 180
Result: UNDER
Golden State at San Antonio - 5/14
Opener: 195
Closer: 194.5
Result: OVER
Miami at Chicago - 5/13
Opener: 189
Closer: 185
Result: UNDER
Oklahoma City at Memphis - 5/13
Opener: 184.5
Closer: 185
Result: OVER (Under in regulation)
San Antonio at Golden State 5/12
Opener: 200
Closer: 198
Result: UNDER
Oklahoma City at Memphis - 5/11
Opener: 189
Closer: 186.5
Result: UNDER
New York at Indiana - 5/11
Opener: 184
Closer: 183
Result: UNDER
Miami at Chicago - 5/10
Opener: 188
Closer: 186
Result: OVER
San Antonio at Golden State - 5/10
Opener: 203.5
Closer: 201.5
Result: UNDER
Chicago at Miami - 5/8
Opener: 187
Closer: 186.5
Result: OVER
Golden State at San Antonio - 5/8
Opener: 205
Closer: 205
Result: UNDER
Indiana at New York - 5/7
Opener: 185 (Winner)
Closer: 184
Result: PUSH
Memphis at Oklahoma City - 5/7
Opener: 186
Closer: 188.5
Result: OVER
Golden State at San Antonio - 5/6
Opener: 203
Closer: 201
Result: OVER
Chicago at Miami - 5/6
Opener: 186
Closer: 188
Result: UNDER
Indiana at New York - 5/5
Opener: 185
Closer: 181.5
Result: OVER
Memphis at Oklahoma City - 5/5
Opener: 184.5
Closer: 186.5
Result: UNDER
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| | The end appears near for sports betting kiosks in Nevada bars | Looks to Nevada is about to pull the plug on sports betting kiosks in bars and restaurants.
The Nevada Resort Association, a trade organization that represents many of the state's largest casinos, argues the sports kiosks cross the line of slot and video poker machines. They say the should be restricted to a sports book for big casinos that hold unrestricted gaming licenses.
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| | Sports Betting Podcast 5-23-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno | Tags: NHL MLB Ian Cameron Rob Veno
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| | NBA Betting Recap: Miami Heat pull off Game 1 overtime thriller over Indiana Pacers | Submitted by Stat Intelligence
I’m not even going to try to describe the last few minutes of regulation, or the last 10 seconds of overtime. If you watched, you saw the thrills and spills. If you didn’t, you’re not an NBA fan anyway.
Miami 103, Indiana 102 (OT)
2-Point Percentage: Indiana 48%, Miami 53%
3-Point Shooting: Indiana 4/14, Miami 5/18
Free Throws: Indiana 24/32, Miami 16/25
1’s and 2’s: Indiana 90, Miami 88
Rebounds: Indiana 43, Miami 38
Turnovers: Indiana 20, Miami 20
Whoever lost was going to be heartbroken. Whoever lost was going to have 20 turnovers! Amazing that the game winner also had 20. There was a lot for grouches to complain about here. And, if Lebron James is going to spend the rest of the playoffs whining about calls he’s not getting…then there may not be much for the public to hang its hat on.
*Tough to root for the heavy favorite, particularly when they’re constantly whining
*Tough to root for the sloppy underdog with horrible offensive fundamentals
*San Antonio should be easy to root for, but America has cast its vote on that
*Memphis is going to win ugly if they win, which won’t launch Grizsanity.
For now, Indiana has established they can be competitive in this series. They did that last year early before fading late. I've said already that I won't get emotionally invested in this series until Indiana wins a third game. Maybe we're destined for a classic. Well, an ugly turnover-filled classic with a lot of fouling and a lot of complaining about fouls not getting called. Congrats to dog bettors in this one...very solid the whole way.
Let’s update home court advantage through the playoffs…counting overtime games as a 0 margin after 48 minutes...
Average result for host after 70 games is a win of 3.5 points
Median result is a 2-point win for the host
Here’s the updated numberline…now including a 22-point win for the Spurs and two more overtime games…
2013 Playoff Victory Margin Number Line (Median in parenthesis)
Road Wins: 23-21-21-14-14-13-12-11-10-10-10-9-9-8-8-8-7-7-7-6-6-6-4-3-3
Overtimes: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0
Home Wins: 2-2-(2-2)-2-3-3-3-4-6-7-7-7-10-11-11-11-11-12-12-12-13-14-15-16-17-17-18-19-21-21-21-22-23-23-26-29-37
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| | MLB Gambling: Highly touted Baltimore rookie Gausman makes debut vs. Toronto | Baltimore (Gausman) at Toronto (Morrow) -130 O/U 9
The Baltimore Orioles don't have a great track record when it comes to developing their top arms. Brian Matusz (1st round), Chris Tillman (2nd round), Jake Arrieta (5th round), and Zach Britton (3rd round) have all failed to live up to expectations. Tonight marks yet another highly anticipated debut with 2012 first round pick Kevin Gausman set to take the hill tonight in Toronto. Gausman fits the profile of someone who should succeed at the MLB level – 6-3, 190, throws hard, three pitches, rolled through each minor league stop, amazing stats (61.1 IP, 62 Ks, 6 BBs). And while it is probably unfair to lump him in with the aforementioned list of underachievers, we still have some concerns about whether or not Baltimore can keep this kid healthy and help him develop.
“It’s really special,” Peterson said of Gausman’s performance up to that point. “When you see a guy who can pound the bottom of the strike zone – and he was even up a little bit today.
“But that along with the swing-and-miss changeup? That’s a fast track. That’s a real fast track. The guys with fastballs [and] changeups, they can fly through the system.”
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| | More proof some people just aren't cut out for gambling | Part funny, part sad as Sporting News tells the story of Danish soccer goalie Jimmy Nielsen and his career as a degenerate gambler.
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| | PokerStars poised for another run at the United States | The Wall Street Journal tackles the rise, fall, and potential rise again of online poker giant, PokerStars.
"Normally, companies who have founders who are under indictments don't go applying for gambling licenses," said Nelson Rose, a gambling law professor at Whittier Law School, in Costa Mesa, Calif.
"We have to begin to explain that we're a completely normal company," said Guy Templer, PokerStars' head of business development. "We're not a backroom shop on a rock in the sea."
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| | MLB Betting Notes: Boston's Ryan Dempster off 127 pitches, regular rest | Cleveland (McAllister) at Boston (Dempster) -140 O/U 9.5
Keep an eye on Boston Ryan Dempster this evening against Cleveland after he tossed 127 pitches in his last last. It was enough of an effort that he threw off of flat ground as oppose to the mound during a recent bullpen session. It marked the second straight outing Dempster was smacked around as his ERA jumped from 2.93 to 4.27.
"Hopefully not," Farrell said. "The game is going to unfold and is going to dictate some of that. He did travel out early today just because of our late arrival tonight. Talking with him, as far as how his arm felt coming out of his last start, he didn't feel like there was any change or lingering effect from the pitches he did throw."
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| | College Football Betting: Odds to Win the Conference | Never too early for some college football. The Greek posted a few numbers on Odds to Win the Conference. Here are the top contenders...
ACC
Miami +175
Clemson +175
Florida State +250
Big XII
Texas +200
Oklahoma +250
Oklahoma State +250
Big Ten
Ohio State +125
Nebraska +350
Wisconsin +350
Michigan State +350
PAC-12
Oregon +150
USC +250
Arizona +500
Stanford +500
SEC
Alabama -125
Georgia +300
South Carolina +500
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| | NBA Gambling: Bettors fairly even on Pacers-Heat Game 1 opinion | Here are the consensus bets for tonight’s Game 1 of Eastern Conference Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager. CRIS opened the game Miami -8.5 with a total of 183.5. The line dropped to -7.5 at a few shops (most notably Grande) before settling back at -8. Vegas residents can still get the Pacers +8.5 at Coasts. The total was bet down to 182 (181.5 at Pinnacle, 183 at South Point). Miami is -750 to win the series; Indiana +550.
Side
Miami -8 - 53.7%
Moneyline
Miami -425 - 51.3%
Total
Indiana-Miami OVER 182 - 59.8%
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| | MLB Gambling Free Pick: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles | Submitted by Teddy Covers
NY Yankees (Kuroda) -120 at Baltimore (Hammel) O/U 9
Recommendation: Under
The Yankees have been the single most profitable road team to support in all of baseball through the first seven weeks of the season; up more than seven units of profit through their first 21 road tilts. They haven’t lost a road series since April, and are in prime bounceback position following last night’s extra inning loss at Baltimore.
Yankees starter Hiroki Kuroda was been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. Kuroda has been nothing short of brilliant for more than a month – seven consecutive quality starts, while allowing a grand total of eight runs during that entire span. The Yanks are 6-1 in those seven starts, including Kuroda’s complete game five hit shutout victory over the same Orioles lineup that he’ll face today. It’s surely worth noting that he shut down Baltimore in all three meetings against them last year (including one in the playoffs), a hot pitcher with a strong recent track record of success against tonight’s opponent.
Baltimore’s Jason Hammel is anything but hot right now; lit up for 27 hits and 17 earned runs in just 14.2 innings of work over his last three starts. His quote doesn’t inspire much confidence in an immediate turnaround today: “I’m missing out over the plate, arm-side with my fastball. It's a pretty simple fix, but for right now, it's seemingly a little bit difficult for me." With the Orioles previously strong bullpen showing signs of weakness (three blown saves from Jim Johnson over the past week), there’s plenty of opportunity for a late inning New York rally should we need it.
Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers
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| | Sports Betting Podcast 5-22-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Teddy Covers | Tags: MLB NBA Ian Cameron Teddy Covers
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| | NBA Handicapping: Statline Data for Indiana-Miami series | Submitted by Stat Intelligence
Here are the numbers for the Eastern Conference finals, using the data that’s helped us throughout the college and NBA postseasons. If you’re new to the blog, there are regular season numbers in:
*Two-Point Defense
*Rebounding Differential
*Turnover Differential
*Made Treys per Game
*Ranking in Pace
This helps paint a picture for how the games are likely to play out given the strengths, weaknesses, and preferences of each team. Conference seedings are in parenthesis…
(3) Indiana: 44% two-point defense, +5.0 rebounding, -1.6 TO’S, 6.9 treys, #25 full season pace
(1) Miami: 47% two-point defense, -1.5 rebounding, +1.7 TO’S, 8.7 treys, #23 full season pace
Indiana was fantastic inside the arc defensively. A lot of very good teams were right at 47%, so that’s kind of off-the charts in a stat category that’s usually lumped together very tight. Indiana has a huge edge in rebounding. Some of that is because Miami will often eschew offensive rebounds so they can race back. If Miami decides to really emphasize rebounding in this series, then Indiana’s edge won’t be as big as it looks in that statline.
It’s telling to me that Indiana has a negative turnover differential even though we know they have a great defense. They have a lot of really bad ballhandlers, which gets exacerbated when their point guard is off the floor. Both teams can make treys, though Miami averaged almost two more made treys per game in the regular season. Both teams prefer a slow pace, though the media still tries to make the case every so often that Miami is a running team. It’s been a long time since that was true.
The statline at least suggests that Indiana can be competitive. A strong “defense and rebounding” combo always gives you a shot. Memphis entered with that same combo against San Antonio, and has been pretty uncompetitive. You just never know. Indiana hung tough for the first few games when these teams met last year before throwing in the towel once things went south in Games 5-6 (missed the spread by double digits in both of those games).
Here are my newest Power Rating Estimates based on market prices:
Miami 88
San Antonio 84
Memphis 84
Indiana 83
That's using an expected base of 3 points for home court in Miami/Indiana...and a projected base of 4.5-ish in San Antonio/Memphis. Miami tends to get respect on the road. Memphis has been getting respect at home. We'll see if the market shows us any tweaks in the coming days.
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| | A look back at Chris Moneymaker's WSOP win | Hard to beat to a good oral history article. Grantland just posted one on Chris Moneymaker's win at the 2003 World Series of Poker.
Moneymaker: Before I really started playing poker, I was down, overall, as a gambler. I'd say I was down about $30,000, lifetime. I might have been a losing gambler, but I was a profitable poker player. I started playing some in the casino down in Tunica, and down there, an old guy told me about online poker and I ended up getting on PokerStars.
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| | MLB Betting News: Detroit's Justin Verlander hoping for better results vs. Cleveland | Detroit (Verlander) -143 at Cleveland (Jimenez) O/U 8
Detroit's Justin Verlander looks to bounce back after his worst start of the season (2.2 IP, 8 ERs vs. Texas). It sounds as if Verlander's main issue has been lack of command. Note that his velocity was way up in his last start as he managed to hit 99 on the gun. The betting markets however remain skeptical with Detroit opening -165/-160 and bet down to as low as -140.
“To me,” said Jones, “in his last two outings it’s just been a matter of locating his fastball. His breaking stuff has been good, his change-up has been good. He just went through a couple different periods where he lost his fastball location.”
“It went alright,” Verlander said of the bullpen work, “I can’t say it was great but it’s never really great until you flip a switch in the game. We will find out (Wednesday).”
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| | MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers | Submitted by Andrew Lange
LA Dodgers (Ryu) -110 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid thus far; like a lot of Far East products he features an arsenal of different pitches at different speeds. He's had a fairly favorable schedule with four games in LA and two in San Francisco and New York. In games at Atlanta, Baltimore, and Arizona, Ryu was a bit more hittable, allowing nine earned runs in 17 innings. Coming from the left side, I view today as perhaps his toughest assignment with the Brewers loaded with right-handed bats in a hitter friendly park.
Wily Peralta hasn't been the most fortunate starter in baseball but his 29-to-17 K-to-BB ratio in 50 innings certainly hasn't helped his cause. I like Peralta's groundball rate (54.5%) but his inability to consistently miss bats and avoid the long ball (6 HRs allowed) makes him a fringe NL arm in my book. Also note that his start in LA (6 IP, 3 ERs) was with Doug Eddings behind the plate.
And while everyone is quick to bash Milwaukee's bullpen, LA's has been far worse. As a unit, they sport a 5-13 record and 4.47 ERA. I've been saying it all season, unless you have two above average pitchers – which I don't think is the case this afternoon – the baseline total in Miller Park should be 9. It looks to be headed that way, which makes over 8.5 a solid bet.
Follow me on Twitter @LangeSportsmemo
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| | Stanley Cup Playoffs Gambling Free Pick: Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks | Submitted by ICC
Los Angeles at San Jose -135 O/U 4.5
Recommendation: San Jose
San Jose has received new life in the Western Conference Semifinals after their enormous Game 3 OT win at home on Saturday night. I expect that momentum to carry over to tonight's Game 4 as the Sharks look to even up this series against the Kings. I'm not quite sold on LA being the better team in this series just yet. LA leads the series 2-1 but have been outshot in two of the first three games by a significant margin and are being outshot 106-78 overall in the series by the San Jose Sharks. San Jose's biggest issues in the first two games were finding ways to score against Jonathan Quick who has been the difference maker to this point but San Jose got two goals past him in Game 3. He was venting a ton of anger and frustration at the referees following a questionable call in OT which led to San Jose's game winning goal and I have a feeling San Jose will have more success against Quick moving forward in this series after we saw him visibly rattled. San Jose's power play came to life going 2-for-5 with the man advantage in Game 3 after not scoring in seven opportunities in the first two games of the series and when their power play is in good form, the Sharks are a much more dangerous team. San Jose has been every bit as good and dominant at home (22-2-5) as the LA Kings have been on their home ice. Los Angeles has struggled mightily away from home as of late which is a stark contrast from their road dominance en route to their Stanley Cup championship last year. The Kings are just 1-9 in their last 10 road games dating back to April. The price is just about right but San Jose is still worth a wager tonight as home favorites as they look to send this series back to LA tied 2-2.
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| | MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros | Kansas City (Davis) -125 at Houston (Norris) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
Kansas City's Wade Davis has probably been a bit unlucky this season (.393 BABIP) but you have to be careful when calling for a pitcher's luck to turn, especially when dealing with a fringe arm like Davis. Keep in mind Davis' struggles are nothing new. In 2010 and 2011, as a starter, Davis was a below average AL starter with xFIPs of 4.61 and 4.82 respectively. I've always been a believer of Bud Norris but I do have some concerns after he left his last start with back spasms. His strikeouts this season are way down (33 in 50 IP) after posting a K per inning in 2012. Some of that has to do with pitching in the American League but with only 4 Ks in his last two starts, he doesn't appear to be in great form. Neither offense is much to get excited about but I see the potential for a lot of balls to be put in play tonight and as a result, we'll take a look at the over.
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| | Sports Betting Podcast 5-21-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno and Erin Rynning | Tags: MLB NBA Rob Veno Erin Rynning
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| | MLB Betting Recap: Monday Notes from a 5-Inning Perspective | Submitted by Stat Intelligence
Quickies from the Monday card, going in schedule order…
*Both Philadelphia and Miami stayed Under 2 runs again in a 1-1 five-inning tie, cementing their stranglehold as worst early offenses in baseball. Miami hasn’t scored 2 or more in the first five innings against a regular rotation pitcher since they showed everyone why Roy Halladay had to go on the Disabled List more than a dozen games ago. Looking like a Double-A caliber offense.
*Marcum of the Mets has seen opponents score 8-3-6-2-3 in the first five innings of his starts. Mets are 2-10-5 their last 17 games in the first five. Meaning, only twice did the team lead after five innings in the last two-and-a-half weeks. Neither was with Harvey by the way.
*Kershaw allowed an early run for the Dodgers in Milwaukee tonight. That’s notable because his last five starts now look like this: 0-0-0-0-1. First run after four straight 5-inning shutouts. He’s allowed a grand total of eight early runs in nine starts this season.
*Corbin of Arizona is the only guy with a better stat line this year than Kershaw. Amazing. He threw another goose-egg tonight, in COLORADO! For the year, Corbin’s posted 2-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0. For real! Two runs allowed in 45 innings of first five ball.
*Miller of St. Louis stayed sharp in San Diego, allowing only one run in the first five. His statline for the year is now 2-0-1-2-0-0-0-0-1
*San Francisco took advantage of the very rusty Zack Duke of Washington, making his first start of the year. That helped settled down Vogelsong, who now has a pitching line of 4-5-3-3-5-8-6-10-0 this season.
*You’ll often hear comments about how getting an early lead is important to overall success. Cleveland’s recent surge in your newspaper standings has been keyed by great starts. Today was a 5-5 tie. That was their first tie in the last 22 games. Cleveland was 15-6 in the first five heading into today during that stretch. Not hearing much in the national media about anything the Tribe is doing. Let’s focus on offense for the moment. Here’s the stat line of those last 22 games…just looking at what Cleveland scored in the first five innings only game-by-game: 6-8-12-5-4-4-1-4-1-2-9-2-4-2-1-0-2-5-3-2-6-5. They reached at least four runs more than half the time. Stellar.
*Dickey of Toronto still hasn’t found his form. His overall ERA is looking better in recent outings. But, you can still get to him early on (TB scored 3 today early). Dickey’s statline for runs allowed this season is 4-8-0-0-4-1-6-3-2. Aces should have more 1’s and 0’s than that. (Kershaw, Corbin and Miller are extremes that we’ve seen tonight, Dickey needs to start at least drifting in that direction a bit more)
*Not much of interest in a 2-2 tie in Yanks/O’s. Maybe Bill Simmons will do a Ewing Theory article about how great the Yanks are playing without AROD or Jeter…
*Scoring’s picked up in Texas with the warmer weather. Total scoring on this homestand has added up to 13-3-8-9-7 in the first five for those of you thinking about Over/Unders. Interestingly, the highest came in the projected pitcher’s duel between Verlander and Darvish last week.
*Would you believe Houston’s 6-4 five-inning win tonight brought them to 6-1 in their last seven home games? They’re 13-32 in the full game standings. Their five inning record is a more respectable 19-23-3. We can deduce a lousy bullpen from that. Maybe some inexperience from the hitters too late in competitive games. Check this out. Houston is 2-7-1 on the road against Detroit, the NY Yankees, and Boston, but 17-16-2 in the first five vs. everyone else. Suggests they haven’t thrown in the towel even with that 13-32 overall start.
*Going to skip Boston/CWS and go to the Interleague game. I'll have to talk about full game stuff here because I haven’t been itemizing Interleague stats.
The schedule is scattershot with the new alignment, but there will be some bursts down the road. To this point, the AL isn’t showing their traditional dominance. In fact, there’s a dividing line near the .500 mark. AL teams with a winning record overall are 19-11 vs. the NL, while AL teams with a losing record are 10-17 vs. the NL. You can fade the worst AL teams in IL play. Minnesota lost tonight in Atlanta. Again, those are full-game records not five-inning.
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| | Nevada nixes group and election betting | Nevada lawmakers shot down a bill that would allow group and federal election betting within the state.
"As hard as the team was working, I guess they couldn't get everybody on board," Brower said Monday. "I think it is an idea that has a lot of merit."
"We don't object to new methods and modes to enhance the sports betting business in the state," Burnett said. "Be we have to do it carefully and we have to make sure it's legal so that state doesn't get embarrassed."
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| | NFL-run website covers Las Vegas sportsbook odds | This has happened before, but we still find it humorous. On the Baltimore Ravens' official website, which is obviously a part of NFL.com, a beat writer runs through some of the 2013 season over/under wins provided by Las Vegas sportsbooks. The over/under on the article getting pulled down is 10.5un-120 hours.
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| | New Jersey looks into "free" sports betting | New Jersey's Monmouth Park is working towards a free sports betting concept for the upcoming football season. "Bettors" won't play for money but instead could win "prizes" such as free hotel rooms and meals.
“We want to have it up and running for football season,” Drazin said. “Right now, it’s already a little late for basketball and baseball is well underway, too. So we’ll gear up for football.”
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| | Jimmy Connors nearly lost $1 million betting on himself | In Jimmy Connor's new autobiography, he claimed he bet $1 million on himself prior to a Battle of the Sexes match against Martina Navratilova.
Asked if he felt like vomiting after dodging such a disaster, Connors says: "No. But that's the feeling I was looking for. I was trying to find that daily thrill especially after I quit playing, even if it was just three seconds. And then it doesn't always happen. So then you just chase more. ... Whether it was watching a basketball game or a football game, or laying cards or rolling dice or whatever."
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