CFL Betting News and Notes Week 8
|Submitted by ICC|Tags: CFL Ian Cameron Here are my CFL Week 8 News & Notes as I take a look at each team from a betting perspective.
Toronto Argonauts (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)
Toronto had a busy Week 8 by playing two games in the span five days. They took advantage of their bye week by trouncing Winnipeg, 38-21, but the tables turned when BC took advantage of eight days off and really wore down the Argos late en route to a 33-17 win. Quarterback Ricky Ray and his new look receiving corps -- due to multiple injuries -- fired on all cylinders against Winnipeg as Ray tossed four touchdowns. But it was a different story against BC’s stout defense with the Argos scoring just a lone touchdown while also coughing up a few turnovers. Toronto can’t be held to too much blame for the BC loss as the schedule really conspired against them but it doesn’t get easier with a daunting road trip to Edmonton (6-1) on deck.
Montreal Alouettes (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)
The change to quarterback Alex Brink didn’t result in a win as the Alouettes notched only 11 points in the loss to Saskatchewan but I did spot some positives with Brink under center. He managed to run out of the pocket for a few first downs and was able to move the football effectively between the 20’s. Unfortunately the red zone acted as a mouse trap for the Alouettes throughout the game where drives stalled and/or they turned the football over. A Brandon Whitaker fumble inside the 10-yard line set the tone early and they never recovered. The defense bounced back with their best performance in weeks but it was still not quite good enough. Montreal will be on the road for a second straight week against a rested Winnipeg team that has been off since last Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if an extra week of work can put Brink in a better position to succeed. Note that Winnipeg’s defense gave up an uncharacteristically high 38 points against Toronto last time out.
Ottawa RedBlacks (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)
I give Ottawa credit as they competed toe-to-toe with one of the league’s best teams but ultimately couldn’t come up with its second win of the season. Edmonton prevailed 10-8 in a game dominated by defense and missed opportunities on offense. The box score will show that Ottawa quarterback Henry Burris didn’t have a good game with only 18 completions and 8 points but the number of dropped passes by Ottawa’s receivers was staggering. The defense had one of its best games of the season albeit against an Edmonton team that had some key injuries on offense. Ottawa earned a wire-to-wire pointspread cover as touchdowns underdogs at home despite the 10-8 loss. They’re catching +9 this week vs. the 6-1 Calgary Stampeders. The spot is certainly in Ottawa’s favor with a second straight home tilt while Calgary plays its second of back-to-back road games in the Eastern Time Zone. But there is a massive talent gap between the two teams as evidenced when Calgary demolished Ottawa 38-17 at McMahon Stadium two weeks ago.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)
Hamilton had yet another chance to win a close game at home against Calgary but a devastating fourth quarter injury to quarterback Dan LeFevour completely changed the complexion of the game. He left and didn’t return and now there is speculation his season may be done with a suspected torn ACL. With Hamilton trailing 23-20 with three minutes left, backup Jeremiah Masoli threw a horrific INT and Calgary later punched in a game clinching touchdown with mere seconds left. That crushed Hamilton bettors (including myself) holding +3, +3.5 or +4 as Calgary went on time win, 30-20. I’m not convinced Masoli is the answer which is a concern moving forward. Hamilton is now 1-6 despite a handful of tough losses by a touchdown or less and enter their bye week needing an answer under center. Zach Collaros is still an unknown as to when he will return and with LeFevour’s season possibly being done it’s either Masoli or their pair of practice roster quarterbacks, Stephen McGee or Jacory Harris. Hamilton’s is likely looking at the trade market with quality and experienced backups like Drew Tate (Calgary) and Kevin Glenn (BC) as potential candidates.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)
In my mind there was no doubt Winnipeg was due for regression following a 5-1 start. They have since lost back-to-back games against Saskatchewan and Toronto but certainly have a favorable chance to get back in the winning column against the reeling Montreal Alouettes on Friday. The Blue Bombers defense had its worst game of the season last week allowing 38 points and four touchdown passes to Ricky Ray and the Argos. Winnipeg has a couple of key defensive injuries to contend with but get a much needed boost offensively with the expected return of receiver Nick Moore. Montreal was competitive last week despite the 16-11 loss in Saskatchewan covering the number as double digit road dogs.
Edmonton Eskimos (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS)
Edmonton was far from sharp in its ugly win over Ottawa but a win is a win and good teams typically find ways to when their A-game isn’t present. The offense was bogged down as quarterback Mike Reilly had by far his worst game of the season and the absences of running back John White and wideout Fred Stamps certainly hindered a lot of their explosiveness. However, the contestant with his team has been their dominating defense which held true to form again as they smothered Ottawa’s offense for the entire 60 minutes. It’s becoming quite clear that if you have a mediocre offense, you are going to have a difficult time scoring in bunches against Edmonton. Edmonton returns home to face the best of the bad lot East Division when they take on Toronto.
Calgary Stampeders (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)
The difference between the Stampeders now compared to earlier in the season is the improvement of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. Earlier this season, they were winning games in spite of Mitchell but now he is making an impact. His poise in the pocket continues to improve and he has done a very good job keeping Calgary’s offense productive despite cluster injuries at the skill positions. The defense remains strong allowing less than 20 points per game so to see the offense play at a higher level makes this team a very tough one to beat right now. Calgary might finally welcome back running back Jon Cornish this week vs. Ottawa.
Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
The Saskatchewan Roughriders were lethargic for the majority of their lackluster 16-11 win vs. Montreal after big wins over Toronto, Ottawa and Winnipeg. It was a classic letdown as they didn’t sniff a pointspread cover as nearly two touchdown favorites. The defense was solid but the offense never got in any sort of rhythm. Quarterback Darian Durant relies on a solid ground game to help complement the passing attack but the Riders’ top two receivers, Chris Getzlaf and Taj Smith, were blanketed for much of the game. The fact that the Roughriders still won shows how superior the West remains over the East. Saskatchewan will clash with BC (5-3) in a pivotal game within the ultra-competitive West Division.
BC Lions (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)
One of the favorites to win the Grey Cup before the season started is finally getting their act together. BC notched a third straight win against Toronto on Sunday, 33-17. The Lions defense was tremendous but the offense was mediocre partially because of an odd decision by head coach Mike Benevides to pull Kevin Glenn for two offensive possessions in the second quarter. Travis Lulay, who stepped in for Glenn, was expected to be the starter prior to the season but needed more time to recover from offseason surgery. Now that he is healthy, he has already been given snaps in an actual game. Glenn came back in the game in the third quarter but was never the same and most of BC’s points came via defense and special teams. I would be surprised if Glenn doesn’t start this week but I wonder if the “musical chairs” will hurt the team’s chemistry and rhythm moving forward.
Follow me on Twitter @bobano
College Football Betting Podcast 8-19-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno
Tags: College Football MAC Rob Veno
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno. Rob and host Andrew Lange broke down all 13 teams in the MAC.
Rob Veno - MAC Preview
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Houston Astros at New York Yankees
|Submitted by Sammy P Sports|Tags: MLB Houston Astros New York Yankees Sammy P Houston (Oberholtzer) at NY Yankees (Capuano) -160 O/U 8.5
The Yankees return home to the Bronx after going 2-3 on their brief road trip. Things could have been a lot worse as the Yankees stole two games against Tampa on Saturday and Sunday. The Bronx Bombers have been anything but as they continue to struggle scoring runs. They've scored just 14 runs in their last 7 games with the under going 6-1 in those contests. The Houston Astros come into town tonight after a good offensive showing in Boston over the weekend. Houston managed 24 runs while splitting the four-game set with the Red Sox. The Yankees should have their hands full again tonight as Brett Oberholtzer takes the mound for the Astros. Oberholtzer has gone 7 innings in each of his last three starts giving up five earned runs over that span. He has been the Astros most consistent starter since the All-Star break. New York counters with veteran Chris Capuano who has pitched well at Yankee Stadium in his first two starts. Capuano has given up just 10 hits and 2 earned runs over 12.1 innings. There is no telling when the Yankees will break out of their slump, it may even happen this week, but against a consistent starter like Oberholtzer the only way to look at this game is the Under.
NFL Preseason Gambling: Bettors react to Dallas' banged up defense
Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys
Due to multiple injuries
the Dallas Cowboys' defense has been nothing short of awful this preseason. They've allowed a league-worst 6.8 yards per play and are unlikely to be at full strength at any point prior to the start of the regular season. Bettors have quickly picked up on the defense's shortcomings with Saturday's total vs. Miami bet up from 43.5 to as high as 45.5. They've also pounded Week 1's total vs. San Francisco. Earlier this summer it opened 48 but over the last week that number has climbed to 50.5.
"I thought we simply made more stops than we did in the previous game against San Diego," Garrett said. "There were some good things. Obviously we've got to get better in a lot of different areas and we got to get some of these guys back to see them play but there's good competition for some of the starting spots and good competition down the line too."
NFL Handicapping: Despite subpar results, Tampa has high hopes for Tedford's offense
Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Article on Tampa Bay's love affair with offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford's new system
. You wouldn't know it by the two preseason box scores with the Bucs averaging 4.3 yards per play and 12 points per game.
“That's why I love the no huddle,” Bucs right tackle Demar Dotson said. “It keeps the defense off balance. And that really slows down the pass rushers, because they can't get down into their stance or think about what they're going to do. It really should play to our advantage.”
“Coach Tedford does a great job of drawing out those plays, and I think it's going to allow us to be dynamic both in the run game and the pass game,” wide receiver Chris Owusu said. “It's a fun scheme.”
College Football Gambling Alert: Sportsbooks take Ohio State-Navy off the board following Miller injury
Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten
Ohio State's Braxton Miller reportedly re-injured his shoulder
during yesterday's practice and is awaiting results on an MRI. During Braxton's absence last year, the Buckeyes didn't miss a beat with Kenny Guiton (14-2 TD-INT ratio) under center. Guiton however has since graduated leaving redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett
as the team's top option. Barrett obviously has no game experience but saw plenty of work in spring practice
while Braxton was recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. The Buckeyes open the season at Navy. Prior to Miller's injury, OSU was a 17-point road favorite. Most sportsbooks have since taken the game off the board.
NFL Preseason Gambling Consensus: Market and public differ on Monday Night Football opinion
Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Washington Redskins
Here are the consensus bets for tonight's NFL Preseason game between the Cleveland Browns and Washington Redskins according to Bookmaker. The Redskins opened -3 (-115) but a majority of the market money has come in on the Browns with the line now down to -2.5 at most offshore sportsbooks. Per usual, the total was pounded up from 40.5 to 42. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.
Cleveland at Washington -2.5 (66.2%)
Cleveland-Washington OVER 42 (67.1%)
Cleveland +124 (60.9%) at Washington
NFL Handicapping: League says new rules are here to stay
Who's ready for some NFL totals in the 60's? The league says that it won't budge on its “points of emphasis.” They are convinced that players and coaches will eventually adjust
. This preseason has featured an average of 23.7 penalties per game
. Last year's regular season averaged 12.7.
“The way the game’s being officiated now is the way it’s going to be officiated when the season begins,” Blandino said. “We have to remain consistent. I knew we’d see a spike in calls when we put out these points of emphasis. But coaches adjust, and players adjust. They have to, and they know it. And we’ll correct our officials when we feel they’re being over-zealous with certain calls. Plus, I would say that between 70 and 75 percent of the calls I’ve gotten from teams after their games this preseason are asking the question, Why weren’t there more calls? I had a call today from a team with seven questions, and six were, Why wasn’t a foul called on this play?”
College Football Gambling: Purdue names sophomore Etling starting QB
Tags: College Football Purdue Boilermakers Big Ten
There weren't many BCS conference passing attacks as bad as Purdue last season as the Boilermakers ranked 108th nationally in QB Rating (111.8). Rob Henry was nothing short of a disaster and midseason the Boilermakers went the youth route with freshman Danny Etling. Etling took his lumps but did close the season strong (67%, 670 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs) albeit against much softer competition (Penn State, Illinois, and Indiana). Second-year head coach Darrell Hazell recently named Etling the team's Week 1 starter
vs. Western Michigan. The Boilermakers are currently 11-point home chalk.
NFL Preseason Betting: Coughlin not pleased with new offense
Tags: NFL New York Giants New York Jets New York Giants at -New York Jets- pk O/U 42.5
The New York Giants may be a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this preseason but the first-team offense under first-year coordinator Ben McAdoo has looked extremely poor
. Eli Manning is 7-for-16 for 49 yards as he adjusts to first-year offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's new system. Because the Giants played in the Hall of Fame game, Friday's matchup vs. the Jets is likely the last time the starters will play -- assuming they perform up to Tom Coughlin’s satisfaction.
"They'd better," Coughlin said in his Sunday conference call. "Because it's not written in stone about what you do in that last preseason game."
"I don't know that there's any way to put it but that," Coughlin said. "The last few years, we've had what would have to be looked at as unproductive games in preseasons and we've still been able to come out and perform early on in regular seasons. But is it a concern? Yes it is."
NFL Division-by-Division Betting Podcasts with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers
|Submitted by Teddy Covers|
Tags: NFL Teddy Covers
NFL Preseason Handicapping: Hoyer and Manziel vie for starting job vs. Washington
Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Washington Redskins Cleveland at Washington -2.5 O/U 41.5
The Cleveland Browns are close to making a decision
on a starting quarterback -- Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel. Both players will get reps with the first team tonight. Ideally first-year head coach Mike Pettine wants to see both players face Washinton first-string but reports indicate that the Redskins' starters will only play the first quarter.
“But his plan is his plan,” Pettine said of Gruden, according to a transcript prepared by the Browns. “It’s his football team, and if we have to make some adjustments to get the matchups we want, then we will.”
Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 2
|Submitted by Teddy Covers|Tags: NFL Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about how after a significant five year run of Overs in the preseason, Week 1 of the 2014 preseason brought a 13-4 mark to the Under
. So what happened in Week 2? With 15 games in the books as I write this on Monday morning, Overs have gone 9-6, cashing at a 60% clip throughout the course of the weekend. That Week 1 run of Unders certainly didn’t last very long.
What’s behind the high scoring affairs from Week 2? Penalties, penalties and more penalties; with flags up more than 50% from last year through the first two weeks of August. And the biggest increases in penalties have come via the rule changes tied to pass defense. Defensive holding, illegal contact and pass interference calls galore have become the new norm.
The rule changes have most assuredly affected the totals markets for Week 1 of the regular season. Historically, Week 1 is the lowest scoring week of the first three months of the season (when weather really starts to affect the games in December, scoring tends to go down in the final month). Week 1 tends to be lower scoring simply because offenses haven’t found a rhythm yet; not quite in true regular season form.
Yet when we look at the Week 1 NFL betting marketplace – just about every book here in Vegas has posted Week 1 numbers, as has every prominent offshore book – the lowest scoring week of the first three months of the season has inflated totals across the board. The only game totaled below 40 is Carolina – Tampa Bay, sitting at 39.5 or so at most shops. Some books also have the Raiders – Jets totaled at 39.5, although the prevailing total is 40. Four games are totaled in the 50’s. 11 of the 16 games are totaled at 45 or higher.
Just for comparison, I went back and looked at Week 1 from 2006. The opening Thursday Night game between the Steelers and Dolphins was totaled at 34. Seven other games were totaled in the 30’s. Only three games were totaled at higher than 45; none higher than 48.5. Yet, of the 16 games played in Week 1 of 2006, 12 of them stayed Under the total.
It was a similar story in 2007. Eight of the 16 games were totaled in the 30’s. Only two of the 16 games were totaled above 45. Regular season Week 1 Unders cashed at an 11-5 clip that year. Clearly, we’re living in a very different NFL betting world compared to where we were less than a decade ago. Anyone looking to bet Week 1 games Over the total this year is paying a hefty market tax to do so.
Longtime New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin might have summed it up best with this quote: “There is no contact allowed at all. You bump into each other shoulder-to-shoulder when you turn and run down the field, it is called a penalty. That is an issue. We are going to have to do a better job of coaching it.”
Penalties in bunches is only one of the intriguing storylines in the NFL this August. Here’s another one – the sudden and unexpected collapse of the 49ers! Jim Harbaugh and San Francisco came into August riding an 8-1 SU and ATS run in the preseason that dated back to 2011; consistent August juggernauts. This year, they’re 0-2, outscored 57-3 in a pair of truly ugly blowout losses. What gives?
Two words: Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert, the former first round QB who was nothing short of awful in two years with Jacksonville, has gotten extended looks in each of the first two weeks, and he’s been nothing short of awful with the 49ers as well. Last year, while going 4-0 SU and ATS in August, the Niners had Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace and BJ Daniels getting playing time behind Colin Kaepernick.
As long as Colin Kaepernick stays healthy, Gabbert’s weakness will be a non-factor once the regular season starts. The battle for the third string job between McLeod Bethel Thompson and Josh Johnson isn’t likely to matter much either. But the 49ers defensive shortcomings here in August might be a concern moving forward.
Last year in August the Niners defense held all four opponents to 14 or less, just as they did in all three spread covering wins back in the 2012 preseason. This year, they’ve been pushed around in both games; both starters and backups. No surprise, then, that the San Fran – Dallas Week 1 regular season matchup has been taking Over $$ hand over fist, with the opener of 48 or 48.5 already bet up into the low 50’s three weeks prior to opening day.
There’s one other league-wide story line that is worthy of discussion – all the games that have been decided by one or two point margins. NFL bettors are conditioned to think about the pointspread number of + or -3 as being the single most important or key number in football betting. That certainly holds true for the regular season, when nearly one out of every seven games finishes with a final margin of three points.
But in August, coaches don’t play for overtime. In fact, they’ll do just about anything to avoid overtime; most notably attempting two point conversions throughout the second half in an effort to keep games off more traditional three and seven point margins.
So far here in August, that has resulted in a bevy of short favorites winning the game in outright fashion but failing to cover the pointspread. In Week 1, the Bills, Lions and Chiefs all won by one or two points, yet failed to cover spreads in the -2 to -3 range. New Orleans also won by two points, but they were underdogs so the margin didn’t matter ATS.
This past weekend, we saw more of the same; very typical for August NFL. The Raiders, Bears and Vikings all won by a point or two; each squad failing to cover the -2.5 or -3 pointspread. The Giants also won by two points, although their four unanswered touchdowns in the final ten minutes of the fourth quarter came with the G-men as underdogs.
While a full quarter of the games (eight out of 32) in the first two weeks of the preseason were decided by either one or two points, only two games were decided by exactly three points. The Jets won by three against the Colts in Week 1; a push or a loss for New York, lined in the -3/-3.5 range. And the Steelers won by three against the Bills in Week 2; a game that bounced around the -2.5 or -3 mark for most of the week before getting bet down to Pittsburgh -1 or pick ‘em on game day.
This is not unusual in the slightest. And the lesson here is perfectly clear. The value of pointspreads like 1, 1.5, and 2 increase DRAMATICALLY in August, while the value of the almighty -3 declines rather precipitously. When an August pointspread is -3 or less, bettors are often best served laying some juice on the moneyline rather than asking the favorite they’re supporting to win the game by more than a field goal.
Find Teddy at Sportsmemo.com and on Twitter @teddy_covers
NFL Betting Podcast 8-18-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers
Tags: NFL Teddy Covers
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy and host Andrew Lange talked AFC South.
Teddy Covers - AFC South Preview
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies
|Submitted by Rob Veno|Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Philadelphia Phillies Rob Veno Seattle (Elias) at Philadelphia (Williams) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Seattle -1.5 R/L
The Mariners are becoming a force during this month of August going 11-4 in its 15 games thus far. In addition, with the way Seattle is currently playing it’s becoming clear to those watching that they’re rapidly turning into a team nobody will want to play should the M’s get into the playoffs. Mariners’ pitching has been an anchor here in August allowing just 30 runs for an average of 2.0 per game along with an ERA of 1.89. However, it’s the bats that are transforming Seattle into a potential playoff threat. 76 runs have been posted by Seattle this month giving them a +46 run differential in the 15 game span which includes a .263 BA, .351 OBP, and .753 OPS. The most impressive betting number of all is Seattle (consistently a reluctant run-line choice by bettors) has won all 11 games this month by 2+ runs. Tonight’s starter Roenis Elias has been effective lately (2-1, 2.08 ERA L4 starts) and this is his first ever starts against Philadelphia which could be an advantage for him. He threw five strong innings in Triple-A five days ago in a move designed to keep him fresh but protect his MLB innings count. Expect a solid outing tonight against Philadelphia which returns from west to east after losing in San Francisco yesterday. Journeyman Jerome Williams has been seen plenty by the Mariners and their improved lineup figures to do enough here to get a win. The bullpen edge goes squarely to Seattle so there’s really no reason not to step in and ride the Mariners R/L train here at the small plus price.
NFL Preseason Handicapping: Redskins face former offensive coordinator Shanahan
Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Washington Redskins Cleveland at Washington -2.5 O/U 41.5
Cleveland offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan held the same post with Washington from 2010-13. The Redskins feel that the familiarity
with what the Browns are trying to run will help during tonight's Monday Night Football matchup.
Defensive end Chris Baker agreed. “It’s going to help us be able to play faster,” Baker said. “But it is what it is. [Manziel] is a dynamic player, still has a lot to learn because he’s a rookie. But it’ll be fun to play against him. I wouldn’t say we have an advantage because we have to go out and compete on every down. But we do have familiarity, and we know how they want to run that offense. We see the same offense every day.”
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange Toronto (Hutchison) -130 at Chicago WS (Carroll) O/U 9
Toronto and Chicago pounded out 23 hits but plated only 9 runs as we took a push with yesterday's free play. For this afternoon we'll go back to the well with another recommendation on the Blue Jays-White Sox over the total. I try to involve myself in as many of Scott Carroll's starts as I can - particularly at home where he sports an ERA close to 6.00. Carroll is a below fringe arm that doesn't miss bats and forced to toss in a hitter friendly ballpark. In 41 IP of work at home, opposing teams are hitting .337/.417/.506 vs. the soft-tossing righty. To really put things in perspective, in 19 appearances this season ranging from 2 IP to 7.1 IP, Carroll has never produced more strikeouts than innings pitched and only once matched it (2 IP, 2 Ks). Meanwhile for Toronto, Drew Hutchison takes the hill after getting torched by lefty-heavy Seattle last time out. He's better suited for this White Sox lineup but as a big time fly baller, I do have some concerns given this afternoon's environment. All told we can once again expect plenty of hits and enough production to get us over the key number of 9.
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange Toronto (Buehrle) -140 at Chicago WS (Danks) O/U 9
Two old buddies square off against one another as Mark Buehrle returns to Chicago to face John Danks. Not going to see many pitches his the 90 mph mark in this one. What we can expect is a lot of hard hit balls in play, particularly of the fly ball variety. Both pitchers have strong fly ball tendencies and with favorable weather conditions (wind out to left) look for a few of those batted balls to leave the yard. Neither pitcher is in good form with Danks allowing 28 earned runs in his last five starts. Buehrle meanwhile has seen his ERA finally spike after defying logic the first half of the season. In five post-All-Star outings the veteran lefty sports a 7.04 ERA. Some will point to the high BABIP (.432) during that span but when you don't miss many bats and are constantly pitching to contact, swatches like that are fairly common. Expect as many as 15 right-handed batters in this one as they knock around both soft-tossing lefties.
Lange 10* MLB Play of the Day [181-124 59% +51.43 All Sports] $20
Andrew Lange and his clients have cashed at an unreal 59% clip, good for over +51 units of profit on a 1, 1.5 and 2 unit scale in 2014. He's got a lone 10* selection for Saturday night's MLB action. Get on board for $20; guaranteed to cash or his next play is free.
NFL Preseason Betting Consensus: Bettors line up on favorites and unders for Friday night
Here are the consensus bets for tonight's NFL Preseason games according to Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.
New Orleans -3 (66.4%) vs. Tennessee
Seattle -6 (66.2%) vs. San Diego
Oakland -3 (64.8%) vs. Detroit
Philadelphia +2.5 (53.3%) at New England
Tennessee-New Orleans UNDER 43.5 (66.7%)
Detroit-Oakland UNDER 40 (59.4%)
Philadelphia-New England UNDER 46.5 (54.9%)
San Diego-Seattle OVER 38.5 (50.6%)
NFL Preseason Betting Podcast 8-15-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Brent Crow
|Tags: NFL Brent Crow Teddy Covers|
NFL Preseason Gambling: Tampa Bay starters to see extended time vs. Miami
Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers Miami Dolphins Miami at Tampa Bay -2.5 O/U 37.5
After a lackluster performance in Week 1, Tampa Bay head coach Lovie Smith says his starters will play into the second quarter
during Saturday's game vs. Miami. In Week 1 the Bucs rushed for only 3.3 ypc and allowed three sacks in the 16-10 loss to Jacksonville.
"We realize what's at stake this weekend, and we want to play a lot better," Smith said. "Anytime you get a chance to start off in front of your fans at home is special. The starters will play into the second quarter and will play a lot longer than they did (last week)."
"You want to progress from week to week, but there is a little veil, which every team has to a degree, to give you a little bit of an edge," McCown said. "As far as the complexity of our offense, it is on par with most of the offenses in this league. But we have some nuances that will give us an edge throughout the season."
NFL Preseason Handicapping: Baltimore starters to play a quarter vs. Dallas
Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Dallas Cowboys Baltimore at Dallas pk O/U 41.5
Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh said his starters will play about a quarter
during Saturday's preseason tilt at Dallas.
“We’ll have some play counts for a few guys, including [quarterback] Joe [Flacco] and some of the defensive players, but we’ll see how it goes,” Harbaugh said “Basically, [the starters will play] about a quarter.”
"That’s going to be [dictated by] the way the game goes, how many plays we get on offense,” Harbaugh said. “Tyrod needs work—not that Keith doesn’t also, but Tyrod has had lots of practice time here. He hasn’t had as much game time.. Tyrod’s a very good quarterback, but the chance to play it out in games is what makes the difference, so he needs that. Keith will get whatever work is available."
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Detroit Tigers Andrew Lange Seattle (Paxton) at Detroit (Porcello) -125 O/U 8.5
When healthy, Seattle's James Paxton has all of the tools to succeed at the MLB level. Coming from the left side, Paxton has showcased the ability to miss bats (22 Ks) and command his pitches (5 BBs) throughout his four starts. Yes, the sample is small (24 IP) but lefties who throw in the mid-90's and get ground balls don't grow on trees. Detroit's Rick Porcello was forced into an extra inning affair last Sunday (2 IP) so should be rested and ready to face the Mariners. He's been very consistent this season and despite not posting big strikeout numbers, his very respectable xFIP (3.70) speaks to his ability to go out and produce quality starts on a consistent basis. I also like the fact that he's really improved his splits vs. lefties -- which the Mariners have a lot of. Lefties are hitting only .244 BA/.299 OBP/.363 SLG vs. the veteran right-hander. With both teams fighting for postseason berths, I project a playoff atmosphere throughout the series. We'll look to play Game 1 under the total.
NFL Preseason Betting: Hoyer to start MNF, Manziel to follow
Tags: NFL Cleveland Browns Washington Redskins Cleveland at Washington -2 O/U 41
It's only going to get worse, bettors. The Hoyer-Manziel saga continues
with the Cleveland Browns claiming that a starter will be named prior to the team's Week 3 preseason tilt vs. Pittsburgh. In the meantime, Hoyer is first up for MNF's matchup at Washington. Manziel is also expected to see time with the first team.
“It’s just something right now where we are comfortable with Brian going out there to start the game,” Pettine said Thursday. “I think it’s a little overblown as to who the starter is going to be. The key component, as I’ve stated earlier this week, is that we are going to balance the reps.
“We will play it a little by ear as it goes on, we haven’t truly decided as far as the rotation but the goal is, for when we look at the stat sheet at halftime, that they both have the same amount of repetitions and hopefully they both get a good amount of work.”
NFL Preseason Gambling: Pittsburgh starters expected to play a quarter vs. Buffalo
Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Buffalo Bills Buffalo at Pittsburgh -2.5 O/U 40
Pittsburgh's starters are expected to play about a quarter
for Saturday's game vs. Buffalo. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley mentioned that the practice time against the Bills' 4-3 defense
was something the offense needed.
“We for months and months go against our defense, which is a two-gap team, hold-their-space,” Haley continued. “Sometimes when you then see a 4-3 team later in the season it’s a little bit of a shock because you’re not getting a good enough simulated look.
“The biggest thing for us is going against another team,” Haley said. “It’s a different level of competition, and that’s just natural. I thought everybody handled it pretty well for the most part. And for us, especially our guys up front, a chance to block a 4-3, penetrating defense, was significant.