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College Football Betting Podcast: AAC East Preview with Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno

08.04.2015     10:29 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno. Rob and host Andrew Lange previewed the American Athletic Conference East Division.

Today's segments 
Rob Veno - AAC East Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football AAC Rob Veno Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays

08.04.2015     10:17 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Minnesota (Hughes) at Toronto (Estrada) -160 O/U 8.5 
Recommendation: Toronto

Few pitchers are as hittable as Minnesota's Phil Hughes as he allowed 158 hits and 25 home runs in 135.2 innings. Adding to that is the fact that he's only fanned 80 batters. Hughes as we know is an extreme fly ball pitcher which suggests that his 4.11 ERA has nowhere to go but up moving forward. He walks into a tough spot tonight with having to navigate Toronto's lineup in the Rogers Centre. Note also that despite coming from the right side, Hughes' split are far worse against right-handed batters (.308 BA/.540 SLG) which we know the Jay have plenty of. Like Hughes, Marco Estrada is a big time fly baller but has somehow managed to keep the home runs in check (7.2% FB/HR rate).  Estrada continues to keep batters off balance with an array of offspeed pitches which has led to a very respectable 3.53 ERA. It's a number that I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain but I give him the edge over Hughes who as mentioned, is walking into arguably his toughest start of the season. Seeing a few shops with sub -160 price tags which is the way I'll go with the home side.

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Lange

College Football Gambling: Iowa scores one of easiest power conference schedules

08.04.2015     09:02 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.

For a season straight season, an extremely favorable schedule based on their opponents' 2014 record and 2015 season over/under wins awaits the Iowa Hawkeyes. Of their 11 games vs. FBS competition only two are against teams projected to post winning records. The five teams they miss out on in the East Division include Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Iowa is currently lined at 7.5 wins.

vs. Illinois State - FCS; lost to NDSU in '14 title game 
at Iowa State - Lined at 3 wins 
vs. Pittsburgh - Lined at 6 wins 
vs. North Texas - Lined at 4.5 wins 
at Wisconsin - Lined at 9.5 wins 
vs. Illinois - Lined at 4 wins 
at Northwestern - Lined at 6 wins 
vs. Maryland - Lined at 4.5 wins 
at Indiana - Lined a 5.5 wins 
vs. Minnesota - Lined at 6 wins 
vs. Purdue - Lined at 4 wins 
at Nebraska - Lined at 8 wins 
Avg. Season O/U Wins = 5.5

Rutgers - Lined at 5 wins 
Michigan - Lined at 7.5 wins 
Michigan State - Lined at 9.5 wins 
Ohio State - Lined at 11.5 wins 
Penn State - Lined at 8 wins 
Avg. Season O/U wins = 8.3

Tags: College Football Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten

NFL Handicapping: Steelers to adjust defense under new DC Kevin Butler

08.04.2015     08:35 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
For the first time in 11 years, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense won't be under the watch of longtime coordinator Dick LeBeau. Kevin Butler, who was the team's linebackers coach for much of LeBeau's tenure, now takes over. Reports out of camp indicate the stop unit will be making a few changes to its scheme this season.

"In zone, you’re throwing a web out there and saying this is field we’re covering,” Lake said. “We want to make sure if they throw the ball here, that offensive player gets caught in the web. In order to do that, you’ve got to coordinate across the field, not only with the secondary, but also the linebackers or underneath coverage players. Based on how you play your zone will depend how those strengths play out.”

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers

College Football Hadicapping: No bye week for Colorado Buffaloes

08.04.2015     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
By scheduling Week 1's game at Hawaii, the Colorado Buffaloes will try to navigate the 2015 campaign without a bye week. And of their 13 games, seven will be on the road including two back-to-back spots the back half of the season. The Buffs also draw the two top teams out of the PAC-12 North, Oregon and Stanford. Check out the final six weeks of the slate...

at Oregon State 
at UCLA 
vs. Stanford 
vs. USC 
at Washington State 
at Utah

Colorado was 2-10 (0-9 PAC-12) last year but was within a touchdown of six league foes in the fourth quarter and also lost two games in double OT. Expectations are higher in 2015 as CU is currently an 8-point road favorite over Hawaii for Week 1. They won last year's meeting in Boulder, 21-12, as -8.5 favorites.

Tags: College Football Colorado Buffaloes PAC-12

MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Miami Marlins

08.03.2015     10:46 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
New York (Colon) at Miami (Koehler) +100 O/U 7.5 
Recommendation: Miami

New York’s three-game weekend sweep of Washington has vaulted them into a first place tie in the NL East and created a buzz of new confidence and expectations. Front office work prior to the trade deadline last Friday has upgraded personnel in key spots and proved to the team they’re committed to winning this year. Continuing the current high and consistently maintaining a playoff level of play is the next step for the Mets who travel to Miami to face a Marlins team which is 19 games below .500. It’s a bit easier for New York to perform when they roll out aces Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard for a three-game home stand but now they take to the road where they’re 17-32 on the season in a setting that won’t be nearly as emotionally charged as Citi Field was the past three days. There is also the fact that tonight’s starter Bartolo Colon has been lousy away from home all season and overall hasn’t been that good anywhere recently. Colon is 3-6 on the road in his nine starts with a 5.57 ERA and he’s 0-5 in his last five with a 6.83 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. He lost his only start here in Marlins Park this year going 6.2 IP while allowing 9 hits and 4 ER. The team is 0-7 in his last seven starts anywhere sometimes due to poor outings and other times a lack of run support. Conversely, Miami starter Tom Koehler has posted strong numbers since mid-June allowing just 43 baserunners in his last 45 IP which includes a rough outing last Wednesday versus Washington. Overall. Koehler’s statistics over this solid stretch are 7 GS, 6 quality starts, 2.40 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and only 1 HR allowed every 11.25 IP. He was torched by the Mets back in April in Flushing Meadows but at home this season he’s 4-2 (2 no decisions) with a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Bullpens favor the Mets here but not enough to overcome what looks to be a favorable home underdog situation. Marlins haven’t shown any quit on the season so they’re worth a look here.

Tags: MLB New York Mets Miami Marlins Rob Veno

Alleged point shaving by Penn State and quarterback Mike McQueary

08.03.2015     10:40 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
We all love an alleged point shaving scandal. Here's one courtesy of involving Penn State quarterback Mike McQueary.

“I was looking for Pitts or someone else to run the clock down,” Franklin says after the play on the broadcast. “But they did not let that happen, and that’ll be discussed this coming week a little bit, maybe a lot.”

Tags: College Football Penn State Nittany Lions

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part I

08.03.2015     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season O/U Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Buffalo Bills didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty New England.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season win total before December rolled around.  Buffalo’s 9-7 campaign offered a no sweat positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 6.5 or 7 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals remain among the most profitable set of wagers currently available in the betting markets.  The books have little wiggle room when setting a number because of the short 16 game schedule.  There’s very little impactful in-season trading, leaving injuries as the only primary ‘morphing’ catalyst.  And you can handicap depth effectively over the summer months, identifying teams with potentially significant injury concerns at key positions.

My win total handicapping process begins with creating accurate strength of schedule (SOS) numbers for both last year and the upcoming season.  The broader betting markets tend to focus on strength of schedule using flawed analysis.  I’ll focus on those differences here.

The widely available information that helps set the markets start with last year’s results as their base point.  But they don’t do it thoroughly.  The conventional models simply add up the combined records of every opponent a team faced to come up with their final strength of schedule for 2014 and to create the SOS for the upcoming 2015 campaign.

Those standard models will tell you that the Texans, Steelers, Ravens, Cowboys, Vikings and Bucs played the six easiest schedules in the league last year, while the Raiders, Seahawks, Broncos, Cardinals, Patriots and 49ers played the six toughest slates.

That’s not my process.  I’ll focus on last year’s SOS this week, and move to the 2015 SOS in Part 2 of this article next week.  Creating numbers that are more accurate than the broader market for BOTH seasons are instrumental in what I’m trying to accomplish.

The aggregate numbers for last year’s strength of schedule -- the starting point for any analysis of the upcoming 2015 campaign -- can be extremely misleading.  A team’s final win-loss record tells us nothing about how good they actually were at the time the game was played.  There were some enormous in-season power rating shifts last year, just as there are every year.  Look no further than a team like the Arizona Cardinals.

The markets view Arizona as a team that went 11-5 for the season, a strong winning campaign.  Every team that faced them gets that 11-5 added to their cumulative SOS numbers for the season. But there was an enormous difference between the Arizona team that opened up 9-1 with a healthy Carson Palmer behind center, compared to that same Cardinals squad by Week 16 or 17, with Ryan Lindley trying to man the QB position after Palmer and second stringer Drew Stanton got hurt.

Arizona’s not alone in their significant morph during the 2014 campaign.  Look at Ron Rivera’s Panthers as another prime example.  Carolina was riddled with injuries for two months, failing to win a single game throughout October and November.  They came on like a freight train in December to win the NFC South.  If you played Carolina in Week 15, you played a much tougher Panthers team than the one you would have faced in Week 8. 

There are plenty of other examples from 2014.  The Chargers were a good team early as they raced off to a 5-1 start.  They were mediocre at best the rest of the way, closing out the season on a 4-6 skid.  The Eagles were a whole lot better in September and October than they were when they slumped down the stretch in December.  Pittsburgh and Minnesota got much better as the season progressed.  New Orleans, Washington and Chicago got much worse, compared to where they were in September. Those differences, again, are not measured at all with the standard SOS models.

So here’s what I do.  I go back to my 2014 spread sheet that details my power rating numbers on a weekly basis from last year.  Then I go through the schedule, using my numbers for every squad on the week the game was played.  Using that formula, you’ll get some significantly different results than the ones I listed above.

I also discount Week 17 results.  Some teams had quit on their coach and their season, other teams were resting starters and other teams were playing their guts out to try to reach the postseason.  Power rating models for the final week of the regular season are inherently flawed – that’s why we see enormous line moves that week every single year. The seven point move on the Patriots – Bills game in Week 17 last year is just one classic example.

So where does that leave us?  The Raiders played the single toughest slate in the league last year according to my numbers, while Arizona and Denver also faced very tough schedules.  But three teams that aren’t on many ‘toughest schedules from last year’ lists – the Falcons, Packers and Jets -- also faced abnormally tough slates.  As a result, all of those teams should grade out as better than their final records would indicate.

On the easy side, my numbers mesh with the standard numbers when it comes to the team that faced the single weakest slate of opponents in 2014; the Houston Texans. Standard model teams like the Steelers, Vikings and Cowboys also faced weak slates according to my numbers.  But Indianapolis, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Cleveland all faced much easier than average schedules; teams that should grade out as weaker than their final record would indicate.

Next week I’ll finish the thought process, writing about the next step -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for the upcoming 2015 campaign.

Find Teddy’s 2015 NFL Season O/U Win Report at and follow him on Twitter @teddy_covers.

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers

08.01.2015     07:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Francisco (Heston) at Texas (Hamels) -125 O/U 8.5 
Recommendation: Texas

There have been three no-hitters thrown this season and two of the three pitchers responsible for the feats will square off tonight in Texas with Chris Heston taking on newly acquired Cole Hamels. Despite not having eye-popping stuff, Heston has essentially carried the Giants' staff this season as the team sports a 13-7 record when he toes the rubber. But tonight marks a massive step up in class with an AL lineup suited to hit soft-tossing righties in a hitter friendly park and ultra-warm temps. Just look at some of the instances where Heston was asked to throw outside the comforts of home in a difficult venue. In two outings at Coors Field he gave up 12 earned runs and in Cincinnati he lasted only two innings after giving up seven hits and five earned runs. Some will have some concern with Hamels following his 129-pitch no-hitter against the Cubs. Now all of a sudden he's getting thrust into the American League to pitch in one of the best hitter's parks in the league. Note however that he'll be throwing on a full week's rest and historically, the results following a no-hitter are pretty random meaning there is no reason to think he'll be in poor form. Look for Heston to struggle to night and Hamels to notch a victory -- at a fairly cheap price -- in his Rangers debut.

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Andrew Lange

Sports Betting Podcast 7-31-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Drew Martin

07.31.2015     10:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Drew Martin. Teddy talked MLB while Drew and host Andrew Lange broke the Sun Belt.

Today's segments 
Teddy Covers - MLB

Drew Martin - Sun Belt Preview Part I

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB College Football Sun Belt Teddy Covers Drew Martin Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

07.31.2015     10:40 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly

Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Detroit (Farmer) at Baltimore (Chen) -170 O/U 9 
Recommendation: Over

My clients and I cashed an easy winner over the total between these two teams last night and I have no reservations about looking toward another high scoring affair involving two solid lineups and two very suspect pitchers on a warm and humid night in Baltimore. Buck Farmer gets the nod for Detroit tonight and he is nothing more than a fringe arm with very little upside. Farmer has been hit hard in each of his two starts this season allowing 12 runs on 17 hits in just 10.1 innings of work against the LA Angels and Cleveland while allowing 3 home runs in those starts. The Orioles have scored 29 runs in their last 6 games in very good form at the plate and should score their share of runs tonight against Farmer and the woeful Tigers bullpen behind him which almost coughed up a huge 9-2 lead last night. On the flip side, Wei-Yin Chen has actually been more good than bad this season but he has shown signs of wearing down a bit in the hot summer months as his hits allowed have skyrocketed in each of his last three starts. He’s given up 8, 10 and 6 hits and he yielded a pair of home runs in his last start against Tampa Bay. Chen doesn’t have a good track record against the Detroit Tigers allowing 5 runs in each of his last two starts against them since 2012 and lasted just 3.2 innings in his lone time facing them last season. Miguel Gonzalez was knocked out of last night’s game after 3.1 innings so the Orioles bullpen isn’t in the best of shape tonight either. Detroit remains one of the top over teams in baseball this season at 57-42 O/U and I agree with the move in this total from 8.5 to 9 but still see value. 

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Baltimore Orioles Ian Cameron

Casinos forced to deal with rule-breaking high rollers

07.31.2015     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Not surprising, but for all the stringent rules casinos have, those who enter with a suitcase full of cash can typically get away with anything they want. That includes acting like a spoiled six-year old who doesn't like it when they lose.

"All men are created equal except in the casino," Glen Costales, the pit manager, said at a hearing before a tribal gaming commission in May. Transcripts of the hearing were obtained by The Associated Press. "If it's a premium player, he gets away with a lot more than the five-dollar player would get away with."

"The casinos pretend they have rules that are set in stone, like going into a bank or dealing with a police station. Are they supposed to allow late bets? Absolutely not. Do they do it all the time? All the time," said Kaufmann, a dealer who sees plenty of crude behavior himself. "The abuse, the screaming, the cheating, the sexual harassment. Throwing things around. It's worse all the time."

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Baltimore Orioles Ian Cameron

NFL Handicapping: Tennessee names Mariota starting quarterback

07.31.2015     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article on the Tennessee Titans naming Marcus Mariota their Week 1 starting quarterback. The article also discusses the difficulty most run-oriented college quarterbacks have had when asked to become "pocket passers" at the next level. The big question is what will Ken Whisenhunt try to do in terms of a system with Mariota under center? The Titans had a horrific offensive line last season that played a part in Jake Locker's retirement.

Like dropping back and making multiple reads from the pocket. Mariota is an unknown in this realm. The system at Oregon almost never asked him to do this. And the system’s rapid tempo often left him facing static, simplified defenses—not the multifaceted disguises, blitzes and coverage rotations he’ll see in the pros.

Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans

College Football Gambling: Ohio State suspensions impact Week 1 pointspread

07.31.2015     07:54 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The suspension of four Ohio State players caused some movement in the betting markets yesterday. The Buckeyes travel to Blacksburg for a Week 1 showdown vs. the Hokies. Of those sitting for OSU will be Joey Bosa is arguably the best defensive end in college football. Ohio State opened -14 but when rumors of the suspensions surfaced, the line dropped to -12.5. Once it became official, more VT money caused the line to plummet to its current number of -10.

"We talk about it every day," senior linebacker Joshua Perry said before the Buckeyes left for the ESPYs earlier this month. "This is the time of year when things can get out of hand. You really have to keep an eye on that. We do a really good job policing each other and making sure guys stay out of trouble."

Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten Virginia Tech Hokies ACC

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Oakland A's

07.30.2015     10:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Cleveland (Carrasco) -130 at Oakland (Bassitt) O/U 7 
Recommendation: Cleveland

The Indians come into this game with a very different mindset compared to the A’s.  The Tribe snapped their losing streak yesterday, exploding for 12 runs against the Royals, cruising to victory behind a gem from Corey Kluber.  Manager Terry Francona: “I think we needed it on a number of fronts. We needed that. That'll help us."  Shortstop Francisco Lindor: “It was very important for us to get our confidence back.”  And while Cleveland dealt away veteran bats Brandon Moss and David Murphy, their starting pitching staff remains intact; not a team embarked on a long term rebuilding plan.

The A’s, on the other hand, are in the midst of a fire sale.  They’ve traded away key arms like Scott Kazmir and Tyler Clippard, along with their prized offseason acquisition, Ben Zobrist.  The A’s suffered yet another late game meltdown last night, blowing a three run seventh inning lead while losing for the fifth time in their last six games.  On a rare night where the A’s offense was in good form (they hadn’t scored more than four runs in a game in their previous seven contests), the A’s still couldn’t emerge victorious, not exactly a confidence boost for this underachieving and slumping squad.

The pitching matchup here warrants the very reasonable chalk that you’ll have to lay with the Tribe this evening.  Carlos Carrasco leads the team in wins and he’s been dominant on the highway.  Cleveland is 7-2 in Carrasco’s nine previous road starts this year and he’s thrown a pair of gems in his last three starts, including a dominant seven inning performance against these same A’s.  The Indians bullpen behind him is in good shape off Kluber’s effort yesterday.

Oakland rookie Chris Bassett has an xFIP of 5.08, in sharp contrast to his 2.94 ERA; a correction waiting to happen.  This is a short turnaround second look for the Indians lineup against him – they faced him just before the All Star Break.  Oakland has won only one of his previous four starts, and the A’s bullpen behind him is coming off last night’s disaster, neither rested nor ready.  Chalk worth laying!  Take the Indians.

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Oakland A's Teddy Covers

CFL Betting Podcast 7-30-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron

07.30.2015     10:21 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron. Ian and host Andrew Lange broke down Week 6 of the CFL card.

Today's segments 
Ian Cameron - Canadian Football League Week 6

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: CFL Ian Cameron Andrew Lange

College Football Handicapping: Hawaii expecting big things offensively

07.30.2015     09:04 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Despite an 8-29 record over three seasons, Hawaii is still sticking with head coach Norm Chow. After ranking 101st in total offense (364.5 ypg) and 111th in scoring (20.9 ppg) Chow made a few offseason moves to bolster the unit. He brought in former USC quarterback Max Wittek who Chow compares to Carson Palmer. The Rainbow Warriors also hired offensive coordinator Don Bailey who took Idaho State's offense to incredible heights (40.3 ppg in 2014). Bailey says he wants the offense to produce over 40 ppg this season something UH came close to doing back in 2010 (39.6 ppg).

"Just keep the first downs coming whether that comes if we get a first down or second down or third down that's great or whatever.  Just keeping it moving and put the ball in the end zone," said Wittek.


Tags: College Football Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Mountain West

College Football Gambing: Mountain West teams search for new quarterbacks

07.30.2015     08:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Mountain West will be loaded with new quarterbacks this season.

“Take out the outliers on the top or the bottom, but the vast majority of the league, we look like each other — our O-lines look the same, our DBs and wide receivers look the same — so then what’s the wild card? The wild card’s the quarterback,” Nevada coach Brian Polian said.

Tags: College Football Mountain West

Treasure Island to offer mobile app

07.30.2015     08:47 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas' Treasure Island casino and sportsbook is going the mobile app route.

“We continually evolve our race and sports book to bring the latest in technology to our customers,” Treasure Island’s race and sports book director Tony Nevill said.

“With mobile usage dominating the marketplace, creating an app was the obvious next step.

“Now, even when a guest can't be present in our race and sports book, they can still participate in real time, real money sports wagering in Nevada.”

Tags: Las Vegas

Mark Teixeira upset because third base coach had the under

07.28.2015     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly

If you had over 9 in last night's Rangers-Yankees game, this will piss you off. If you had under 9 in last night's Rangers-Yankees game, this will make you smile.

Tags: MLB New York Yankees

College Football Betting Podcast: AAC West Preview with Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno

07.29.2015     10:22 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Rob Veno. Rob and host Andrew Lange previewed the American Athletic Conference West Division.

Today's segments 
Rob Veno - AAC West Preview

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football AAC Rob Veno Andrew Lange

College Football Gambling: BYU has history of Week 1 success

07.29.2015     09:09 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
There's a longstanding theory that BYU has somewhat of an advantage in Week 1 due to the older age of many of its players. It's a logical thought process that 22 and 23 year olds who attended Mormon missions will be better prepared than teams forced to play first-year starters and underclassmen. Out of curiosity, we went back and looked at the pointspread history and results of BYU's first game dating back to 2006. Of those nine games, the Cougs went 7-2 straight up and 6-2 against the spread (the game vs. FCS Northern Iowa wasn't lined). Ironically, one of the articles we found on the "phenomenon" was prior to 2013's game vs. Virginia in which the Cavaliers had the most underclassmen in the country on their depth chart. UVA won outright as home underdogs, 19-16. In the end, the short term results suggest there is some truth to the theory but bettors should still incorporate other factors into their handicap.

2015 - BYU at Nebraska 
Opener: BYU +6 
Current: BYU +5 
Result: ???

2014 - BYU at UConn 
Opener: BYU -14.5 
Closer: BYU -17 
Result: BYU 35, UConn 10

2013 - BYU at Virginia 
Opener: BYU -2.5 
Closer: BYU -3 
Result: Virginia 19, BYU 16

2012 - BYU vs. Washington State 
Opener: BYU -13.5 
Closer: BYU -13 
Result: BYU 30, Washington State 6

2011 - BYU at Ole Miss 
Opener: BYU -2.5 
Closer: BYU -2 
Result: BYU 14, Ole Miss 13

2010  - BYU vs. Washington 
Opener: BYU -3.5 
Closer: BYU +1.5 
Result: BYU 23, Washington 17

2009  - BYU vs. Oklahoma 
Opener: BYU +25 
Closer: BYU +22.5 
Result: BYU 14, Oklahoma 13

2008  - BYU vs. Northern Iowa 
Opener: N/L 
Closer: N/L 
Result: BYU 41, Northern Iowa 17

2007 - BYU vs. Arizona 
Opener: BYU -6.5 
Closer: BYU -3.5 
Result: BYU 20, Arizona 7

2006 - BYU at Arizona 
Opener: N/A 
Closer: BYU +6.5 
Result: Arizona 16, BYU 13

Tags: College Football BYU Cougars

College Football Betting: Week 1 line moves

07.29.2015     08:30 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Starting to see some movement in the college football betting markets for Week 1. CRIS posted its openers on July 16. Here's a quick rundown of some of the more significant/key line moves.

South Carolina vs. North Carolina (Charlotte) 
Opener: South Carolina -1 
Current: South Carolina -3

Oklahoma State at Central Michigan 
Opener: Oklahoma State -19 
Current: Oklahoma State -22.5

Michigan at Utah 
Opener: Utah -4.5 
Current: Utah -6

Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan 
Opener: Eastern Michigan +7 
Current: Eastern Michigan +5.5

Florida Atlantic at Tulsa 
Opener: Tulsa -6 
Current: Tulsa -7-115

Arizona State vs. Texas A&M (Houston) 
Opener: Arizona State +3 
Current: Arizona State +2.5

UL-Lafayette at Kentucky 
Opener: Kentucky -13.5 
Current: Kentucky -15.5

Texas at Notre Dame 
Opener: Notre Dame -8.5 
Current: Notre Dame -10

Purdue at Marshall 
Opener: Purdue +8.5 
Current: Purdue +7

Ohio State at Virginia Tech 
Opener: Virginia Tech +14 
Current: Virginia Tech +12.5

Tags: College Football

College Football Handicapping: Oregon State offense preps new system, quarterback

07.29.2015     08:18 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Good article on Oregon State first-year offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin. Baldwin has had OC stints at Colorado State, Utah State, New Mexico, Michigan State, Baylor and Cincinnati. The Beavers lost quarterback Sean Mannion and will be forced to start a freshman under center but return nine starters including their entire offensive line.

“I’m really excited about our O-line,” he says. “Those guys did a great job in the spring. If we can get Isaac and (tackle) Gavin Andrews back (from injuries), we can be talented up there. I’m looking for them to take over in (August training) camp and be leaders for our offensive group.”

“I don’t have an idea exactly who we are yet,” he says. “We spent much of spring just installing our offense. Now we go into (training) camp trying to determine who our quarterback is going to be and who our starters (at other positions) are. You go through that process every first year in a new program.”

Tags: College Football Oregon State Beavers PAC-12

Offscreen sportsbook with mob ties gets busted

07.28.2015     02:54 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Straight out of an episode of the Sopranos.

They were agents, albeit with nicknames that included "Frankie the Flea," "The worm," and "Harpo."

"I got 49 people. These kids get two thousand each," he said. "If at the end of the year I can make two million and I gotta give away, like four or five hundred (expletive), that's a million and a half, you know. My money."



Tags: College Football Oregon State Beavers PAC-12

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