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NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-22-2016: New England Patriots

07.22.2016     12:38 PM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy continued his coverage of the AFC East by breaking down the New England Patriots.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/22 
Handicapper: Teddy Covers 
Team: New England Patriots 
2015-16 Record: 12-4 SU, 7-7-2 ATS, 9-7 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 10.5un-125 
Odds to Win AFC: +365 
Odds to Win AFC East: -198 
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +690 
Week 1 Line: New England +5.5 at Arizona

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL New England Patriots Teddy Covers



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 7-22-2016: Auburn Tigers

07.22.2016     12:37 PM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured handicapper Drew Martin. Drew continued his coverage of the SEC with in-depth analysis on the Auburn Tigers.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO DREW'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/22 
Handicapper: Drew Martin 
Team: Auburn Tigers 
2015 Record: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS, 3-8-2 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 7un-125 
Odds to Win Title: +8500 
Odds to Win SEC West: +1375 
Odds to Win SEC: +2500 
Week 1 Line: Auburn +7.5 vs. Clemson

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers SEC Drew Martin



MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

07.22.2016     08:34 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Los Angeles (Shoemaker) at Houston (McCullers) -145 OU 8 
Recommendation: Under


The ability to miss bats is certainly present tonight in Houston tonight with Matt Shoemaker going up against Lance McCullers. Shoemaker's splitter ranks as one of the most effective pitches in the game as evidence by his 13.5% swinging strike rate -- 6th best among qualified starters. After a slow start to the season, Shoemaker has ripped off a 2.55 ERA over his last 12 starts including two against the Astros in which he allowed only three runs in 13.1 innings. McCullers counters with one of the best curveballs in the game which has resulted in an incredible K rate of 11.5 per 9 innings and a 55% groundball rate that has helped him surrender only two home runs over 62 innings. And coming from the right side is the preferred method to keep both of these offenses at bay. Scoring is obviously up this season but totals continue to climb and it appears that we've reached the tipping point with unders cashing at a 63% rate since the All-Star break. We'll step in with a play on tonight's game under the total.

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros Andrew Lange



Sports Betting Podcast 7-21-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning

07.21.2016     01:59 PM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning. Ian broke down Week 5 of the CFL while ER and host Andrew Lange previewed the Chicago Bears.

Today's segments 
Ian Cameron - CFL Week 5

Erin Rynning - NFL Preview Chicago Bears

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: CFL NFL Chicago Bears Ian Cameron Erin Rynning



NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-21-2016: Chicago Bears

07.21.2016     01:59 PM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Erin Rynning. Erin kicked off coverage of the NFC North by breaking down the Chicago Bears.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO ER'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/21 
Handicapper: Erin Rynning 
Team: Chicago Bears 
2015-16 Record: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 7.5un-140 
Odds to Win NFC: +3050 
Odds to Win NFC North: +1350 
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +7200 
Week 1 Line: Chicago +6 at Houston

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Erin Rynning



College Football Gambling: Kansas expectations once again ultra-low

07.21.2016     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For the second straight year, the Kansas Jayhawks are lined at 1.5 season over/under wins. Last season was a total disaster as KU failed to win a game while covering only three of 12. We'll go ahead and give the Jayhawks a Week 1 win over FCS Rhode Island who last season went 1-10 and finished 224th in Sagarin's Power Ratings. Beyond that, KU's best shot at another victory looks to be home tilts against Ohio and Iowa State. Below are the records since 2009 of teams off a winless season. In each instance, they won at least one game but no more than two the following year.

2009 
Eastern Michigan (0-12) 
2010's Record: 2-10

Western Kentucky (0-12) 
2010's Record: 2-10

2012 
Southern Miss (0-12) 
2013's Record: 1-11

2013 
Miami (OH) (0-12) 
2014's Record: 2-10

Georgia State (0-12) 
2014's Record: 1-11

2015 
Central Florida (0-12) 
2016's Record: ???

Kansas (0-12) 
2016's Record: ???

Tags: College Football Kansas Jayhawks Big XII



MLB Handicapping: Updated strength of schedule

07.21.2016     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
FanGraphs compiled a MLB strength of schedule chart for the remainder of the season. According to opponent winning percentage, the Pittsburgh Pirates face the easiest slate while the New York Yankees face the toughest. Over the next month, Pittsburgh plays Milwaukee, Seattle, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and San Diego.

Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates New York Yankees



CG Technology CEO resigns

07.21.2016     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Things aren't looking all that great for Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology these days. It was recently fined by the Nevada Gaming Control Board for failing to correctly pay out winning wagers. Now news has come out that CEO Lee Amaitis will resign at the end of August. As of now, CG's sportsbooks (Cosmopolitan, Venetian, Palms and M Resort) will continue to operate though will be heavily monitored by a third party.


"The Board will not tolerate improper or incorrect payments to patrons by gaming licensees, and therefore takes this matter extremely seriously," Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman A.G. Burnett told the Las Vegas Sun, which first reported the settlement. "This settlement contains several harsh punishments and requirements for remediation that reflect those concerns."



Tags: Las Vegas



MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox

07.20.2016     11:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco (Cain) at Boston (Pomeranz) -210 O/U 10 
Recommendation: Over


Drew Pomeranz, in theory, is supposed to help the Red Sox win a World Series when October rolls around.  But I’m not convinced in the slightest that Pomeranz success in San Diego will translate over to Fenway Park.

Pomeranz was a highly coveted prospect coming out of Ole Miss, and the Indians drafted him with their #5 overall pick back in 2010.  Cleveland was willing to dump him by 2011, trading him to Colorado.  The Rockies gave him every chance to succeed, then traded him to Oakland.  The A’s gave him two years, then dealt him to San Diego.  Now the Padres have been willing to let him go as well, despite his All Star first half.

When we put Pomeranz’s 8-7 record and 2.47 ERA pitching for a last place team under the microscope, we can see all kinds of vulnerability.  The #1 factor due for regression is his home run to fly ball percentage.  The MLB average is 12.8%.  Pomeranz has made 12 of his 17 starts in the VERY pitcher friendly ballparks in California; hence his 8.8% of home runs to fly balls.

That’s not going to last at Fenway.  The fly balls to left field get caught at the warning track in the dead air at Petco, Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park in San Fran.  At Fenway, those same fly balls hit at the same velocity smack the Green Monster or fly over it!  Oftentimes, when a promising young lefty makes his first trip around a new league, he’ll have an edge over opposing lineups.  But that won’t be the case for Pomeranz today – the Giants have seen him twice already this year.  I’m not convinced that his Red Sox debut is going to go well.

Matt Cain is even more of a ‘bet-against’ pitcher than Pomeranz right now.  He threw a rehab start at single A San Jose on Friday following a month long stint on the DL with a hamstring injury.  It wasn’t pretty: nine runs allowed in just four innings of work.  His quote: “I got my work in. I got a lot of work in, in a short period of time.”

Cain was an ace earlier in his career, and the Giants have him locked up with a pricey long term contract.  But the numbers don’t lie.  Over the last three years, he’s 5-16 with a 4.97 ERA and a 4.86 FIP; a well below average hurler.  That’s bad news against the single most productive lineup in baseball this year.  Expect fireworks.

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Boston Red Sox Teddy Covers



MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Miami Marlins at Philadephia Phillies

07.20.2016     10:45 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Drew Martin

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami (Chen) -131 at Philadelphia O/U 8.5 
Recommendation: Miami


The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins for the third game of a four game series. This is a classic case of ride the hot and fade the cold. The Phillies managed just five hits Tuesday, and over their past three games -- all losses -- they have generated just three runs and 10 hits while striking out 34 times. They fanned 11 times against five Marlins pitchers yesterday. On the exact opposite side, the Marlins have won seven of their past eight games, taking each of the first two games in this four-game series.

Philly's Jeremy Hellickson continues to be the subject of trade speculation, with the August 1 non-waiver deadline approaching. The 29-year-old righty’s stuff has been in decline for years and I doubt the uncertainty of his future will help. A suspect pitcher backed by an even more suspenct offer. "We're in that hitting funk again," manager Pete Mackanin said. "We're just not swinging the bats. Too many bad at-bats. We're not grinding out at-bats, and we need to do that. ... Too many called third strikes with men in scoring position. That's a pet peeve of mine, and we're going to address that."

Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen went through a rough patch in June but has bounced back with four straight solid outings against the likes of Chicago, St. Louis, and New York. He's a farily middling National League starter but will be supported by the far superior offense. If he keeps the ball in the park this evening, the Marlins get the victory.

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies Drew Martin



NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-19-2016: Buffalo Bills

07.19.2016     10:19 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy kicked off his coverage of the AFC East by breaking down the Buffalo Bills.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/19 
Handicapper: Teddy Covers 
Team: Buffalo Bills 
2015-16 Record: 8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 8 
Odds to Win AFC: +2025 
Odds to Win AFC East: +555 
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +4600 
Week 1 Line: Buffalo +2.5 at Baltimore

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Teddy Covers



NFL Betting Preview Podcast 7-20-2016: Miami Dolphins

07.20.2016     10:35 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Teddy Covers. Teddy continued his coverage of the AFC East by breaking down the Miami Dolphins.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO TEDDY'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/20 
Handicapper: Teddy Covers 
Team: Miami Dolphis 
2015-16 Record: 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS, 7-9 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 7ov-130 
Odds to Win AFC: +3350 
Odds to Win AFC East: +775 
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51: +8800 
Week 1 Line: Miami +9 at Seattle

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Teddy Covers



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 7-20-2016: Texas Longhorns

07.20.2016     10:34 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Rob Veno. Rob continued his coverage of the Big XII by breaking down the Texas Longhorns.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO ROB'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/20 
Handicapper: Rob Veno 
Team: Texas Longhorns 
2015 Record: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 7ov-125 
Odds to Win Title: +11000 
Odds to Win Big XII: +925 
Week 1 Line: Texas +4.5 vs. Notre Dame

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Texas Longhorns Big XII Rob Veno



MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Houston Astros at Oakland A's

07.20.2016     08:27 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston (Fister) -125 at Oakland (Mengden) O/U 8.5 
Recommendation: Houston


The Houston Astros will try to avoid the three-game sweep this afternoon in Oakland with sinkerballer Doug Fister on the hill. There is a lot not to like about Fister's body of work this season with only 69 strikeouts in 111.1 innings to go with a fortunate .257 BABIP and 78.5% left-on-base rate. His ERA (3.64) to FIP (4.72) differential is one of the highest in the league among qualified starters. But what Fister does is keep the ball on the ground and churn out quality starts. In 18 starts, Fister has allowed three runs or fewer 15 times. The markets may not like him but as opposed to laying -180 like bettors were forced to last night with Dallas Keuchel, we're instead getting a far cheaper price of -125. Oakland's Daniel Mengden has the potential to be a back-of-the-rotation arm but he isn't there yet. He's managed to fan a batter per inning but has already shown signs of wearing down having allowed 16 earned runs over his last three starts. Also note that four of Mengden's seven starts came against National League teams. When asked to step up in class against Toronto and today's opponent, Houston, Mengden lasted only eight combined innings and surrendered 12 runs. Command or reluctance to come in the zone is also a concern with 18 walks in 39 innings. Play is warranted on the short road favorite.

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Oakland A's OTTO Sports



College Football Handicapping: Texas hoping new OC will spark offensive turnaround

07.20.2016     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After ranking 92nd in total offense (370.8 ypg) last season, Texas brought in 37-year-old offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert. Gilbert worked under current Syracuse head coach Dino Babers and last year served as co-OC under Tulsa's Philip Montgomery. Texas head coach Charlie Strong noted that successfully running the football will be paramount; something that the Longhorns did to varying degrees of success (224.8 ypg) in 2015.


“I’ve always said this, ‘If you’re going to be a good football team, you’re going to have to run the football,’” Strong said. “If you’re going to be a good football team and you’re going to be physical, you have to oppose your will. You have to be two-dimensional.”

“It’s not one of those things where we’re going to throw it all over the ballpark,” Strong said. You may get into a shootout game, but it’s not like it’ll be 60-53 each week. We’re going to run the ball and we’re going to do it.”



Tags: College Football Texas Longhorns Big XII



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 7-19-2016: Florida Gators

07.19.2016     10:17 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured handicapper Drew Martin. Drew continued his coverage of the SEC with in-depth analysis on the Florida Gators.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO DREW'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/19 
Handicapper: Drew Martin 
Team: Florida Gators 
2015 Record: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 6-8 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 8ov-125 
Odds to Win Title: +5500 
Odds to Win SEC East: +480 
Odds to Win SEC: +1800 
Week 1 Line: Florida -36.5 vs. UMass

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Florida Gators SEC Drew Martin



Daily Fantasy Sports laws remain hit or miss

07.19.2016     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Daily Fantasy Sports is gaining some traction but problems remain like the different regulations state-by-state. For example, Indiana has enacted legislation, Illinois' is pending, and Wisconsin (and others) has chosen to do nothing.


“Fifty states with 50 different sets of regulations will likely give rise to compliance costs that the fantasy industry — particularly smaller players — will struggle to absorb,” he says. “We can easily imagine a future, cost-prohibitive market controlled by a small number of large players.”

“The impact has been devastating. We simply can’t afford the fees,” says Rishi Nangia, who’s considering relocating Syde, the daily fantasy sports company he co-founded, after its home state of Virginia imposed a $50,000 registration fee. “So even in states where we technically won a right to exist, we are unable to offer our games.”



Tags: College Football Florida Gators SEC Drew Martin



Football Handicapping: Las Vegas offers an endless array of contests

07.19.2016     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
While the Westgate's famed SuperContest takes top billing, Las Vegas sportsbooks are offering a multitude of football contests for the upcoming season.

Tags: College Football NFL Las Vegas



NFL Gambling News: Patriots remain AFC and Super Bowl favs despite Brady's supension

07.19.2016     07:57 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
While Tom Brady's 4-game suspension will have an impact on the pointspreads of New England's games, it hasn't caused much of a stir in the futures market. According to 5Dimes, the Patriots remain the betting favorite to win the AFC East (-198), AFC (+365), and Super Bowl 51 (+690). Week 1's matchup at Arizona was originally lined as a pick 'em but CRIS reopened with the Cardinals a -5.5 favorite. Following Week 1, New England will play three consecutive home games vs. Miami, Houston, and Buffalo.  

Tags: NFL New England Patriots



MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Houston Astros at Oakland A's

07.18.2016     10:57 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston (Fiers) -130 at Oakland (Graveman) O/U 8.5 
Recommendation: Under


Houston has been rolling for nearly two months now going 33-14 since May 24. Throughout the run, their pitching has been a major contributor the success. During this 47 game stretch, the Astros have allowed three runs or less 26 times (55.3%). Tonight’s starter Mike Fiers has not been consistently good this season but in eight of his last 12 starts he has limited the opposition to two runs or less. Included in there is his 7 IP, 0 BB, 2 ER performance right here versus the A’s on April 29. Just as impressive has been Oakland RH Kendall Graveman’s recent 10-game string where he has yielded two runs or less eight times. In that mix is his dominant effort just nine days ago in which he went eight innings and allowed only five baserunners and two runs against this Houston lineup. Shifting to bullpen notes, the Astros relief corps can’t be ignored here as they’ve been just as instrumental in the 33-14 run as any segment of the team. Since May 24, the group is 14-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The Astros have all four of their key arms available tonight to help Fiers out which is a significant plus. Having starting LH Rich Hill exit in the first inning yesterday put a strain on the A’s pen but it did not affect their top two arms and bridge to closer duo of Dull and Madson. Expect this game to be pitching dominated and the run production tough to come by. Since this is the start of the series, the HP umpire is unknown right now but even without that information, it’s worth a play on the under.

Tags: MLB Houston Astros Oakland A's Rob Veno



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 7-18-2016: Baylor Bears

07.18.2016     10:26 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Rob Veno. Rob broke down the Baylor Bears who during the offseason fired head coach Art Briles and brought in former Wake Forest head coach Jim Grobe.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO ROB'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/18  
Handicapper: Rob Veno 
Team: Baylor Bears  
2015 Record: 10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-5 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 9un-225 
Odds to Win Big XII: +1000  
Odds to Win Title: +2000  
Week 1 Line: Baylor NL vs. Northwestern State

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Baylor Bears Big XII Rob Veno



Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the AFC East

07.18.2016     07:56 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Our NFL Team Previews for the upcoming campaign continues.  This week, I’ll be focusing on the AFC East, and next week I’ll conclude the series with a look at four squads from the NFC East.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order within their division.

We'll start with the Buffalo Bills who are lined at 8 wins for the upcoming season.  Buffalo owns the longest playoff drought in the NFL; now at 16 seasons and counting.  The Bills have at least returned to relevance over the past two seasons, winning nine games in 2014, followed by an 8-8 campaign last year.

Rex Ryan is set to begin his second year on the job.  Rex’s brother, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, coached one of the worst defenses in NFL history in New Orleans last year.  Now Ryan takes over a defense that plummeted from a no. 4 yardage ranking in 2014 to 19th in 2015 as sacks dropped from 54 to 21.  Top two draft choices Shaq Lawson (Clemson), Reggie Ragland (Alabama) are expected to contribute in the sacks department immediately.

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman crafted a Super Bowl caliber offense in San Francisco.  In his first year in Buffalo, Roman must be credited for coaxing up a monster season from QB Tyrod Taylor, who finished 7th in both QBR and QB Rating last year while making the Pro Bowl as an alternate in his first year as the starter.  All 11 starters are back on that side of the football, but skill position depth is a legitimate concern if the injury bug strikes.  And I have my doubts as to whether Taylor can repeat his breakthrough campaign.

Coming off a massively disappointing 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS season, the 2016 Miami Dolphins are lined at 7 Wins for the upcoming campaign.  Last year’s mainstream stats were awful for a squad that hasn’t reached the playoffs in any of the last six seasons.  Coming off an offseason filled with "win now" moves, the Dolphins finished with the 26th ranked offense and the 25th ranked defense, and sent former head coach Joe Philbin packing by midseason.

New head coach Adam Gase is the NFL’s youngest head honcho at age 37.  Gase coaxed a career year out of Jay Cutler last season and he’ll call the plays in Miami in his first head coaching gig.  Offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph are both in their first year as coordinators as well – this coaching staff lacks experience, to put it mildly.

Ryan Tannehill took a big step back last year; still looking for his first winning season after four full years on the job.  The Dolphins backup QB situation is as weak as any in the NFL – if Tannehill gets hurt or plays poorly, it could get ugly again. The offensive line is a clear unit of strength, with two pro bowl returnees in Mike Pouncey and Brandon Albert, while Juwan James isn’t far behind.  The Dolphins took Ole Miss standout tackle Laremy Tunsil with their first round pick after his precipitous draft day fall.  But when it comes to skill position talent and depth, the Dolphins clearly have issues; bad news for a team with a very suspect defense.

The Dolphins didn’t get any breaks from the schedule maker either.  Last year’s slate was very easy, bottom five in terms of strength of schedule.  This year, their slate is tougher than the league average.  And with road games at Seattle, New England and Cinci in the first four weeks, we can expect another slow start from a team that needs a fast start in the worst way!

The New England Patriots were sitting with a win total of 10.5 before the Tom Brady suspension was announced – he’ll miss the first four games of the season.  Since the announcement, the Pats win total hasn’t really moved all that much – it’s still sitting at 10.5, albeit with slightly lower juice to make an over wager.  Perhaps that’s because the Pats have been the most consistent "over" cash in the NFL, winning 12 or more games in each of the last six seasons; cashing over tickets every year.

Brady turns 39 in August; around the age where signal callers really start to drop off (just ask Peyton Manning). It’s hard to picture Brady with a 36-7 TD-INT ratio again like he had last year, but the four game suspension to open the season could actually help him be a good notch or two fresher in December and January.  In his absence, the press reports out of New England have been nearly uniformly positive in their descriptions of backup Jimmy Garappolo in mini-camps and practices.  And the offensive line should improve after Brady took 38 sacks last year, with longtime OL coach Dante Scarnecchia coaxed out of retirement.

How have the Pats been this good for this long besides the obvious – Brady, Belichick and a front office that has made far more right moves than wrong ones over the past decade and a half of dominance?  Simple – veterans are willing to accept below market offers to play for a championship contender.  Chris Long, Martellus Bennett, Terrance Knighton and Nate Washington all joined the Pats this offseason for a combined pricetag of just about $10 million – legitimate bargains!

Questions persist about where the Patriots pass rush is going to come from following the offseason departure of sackmeister Chandler Jones.  And it’s surely worth noting that the Patriots were moneylosers last year, despite their 12-4 SU record, going 0-4-1 ATS in their five wins by a TD or less.

The New York Jets won 10 games last year, but they’re lined as a team primed for regression; 8 wins here in 2016.  They haven’t been to the postseason since 2010, when Mark Sanchez led them to road wins at Indy and New England, before losing the AFC Championship Game at Pittsburgh.

Of course last year’s ten win season was more about feasting on the weak than any other factor.  The Jets played one of the very easiest schedules in the NFL in 2015.  Eight of their ten wins came against the Browns, Colts, Dolphins (twice), Jaguars, Giants, Titans and Cowboys – all massive disappointments or bottom feeders.  Their two ‘signature’ wins came in OT at New England  (a divisional rival who they’ve consistently played tough) and against Washington (when the Redskins were a struggling 2-4 team and the Jets were coming off a bye). 

This year’s schedule isn’t likely to be quite as friendly – based on 2016 win totals, the Jets have the single biggest strength of schedule toughness upgrade in the entire NFL.  Just check out their first six games for a clear example – four coming on the road; five coming against playoff teams from last year.

Last year’s QB who guided New York to ten wins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, still hasn’t signed on the dotted line, in the midst of a contract dispute that has lingered all summer.  He finished as the 24th ranked QB statistically last year even with a career high 31 TD passes, with the best OL/running game /receiving corps triumvirate he’s had in his career.  For the Jets to end their playoff drought in 2016, they’ll need Fitzpatrick to match or exceed last year’s success.

Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins New England Patriots New York Jets Teddy Covers



Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the NFC North

07.18.2016     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, when I previewed the AFC North, there wasn’t a whole lot that I liked in the division.  If I’m going to put an AFC North win total in my pocket, it’s not going to be on an over wager!  But that’s most assuredly not the case in the NFC North, where several teams – including a Super Bowl contender – have the feeling of an undervalued commodity at this stage of the offseason.

Let’s start with the Chicago Bears who are lined at 7 or 7.5 wins; a legitimate split line.  Bettors shopping around for the best price on the Bears (over or under) should remember the standard rule of thumb for converting juice into wins with mid-range totals (teams lined between 6.5 and 9.5 wins). Fifty cents of juice equates to about a half win.  If you like the over, an over 7 -140 trumps over 7.5 at +100.  If you like under, under 7.5 -140 trumps under 7 at +100.

Last year, the Bears went 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS and 8-8 O/U.  Their mainstream stats were indicative of a sub .500 squad: ranked 21st in total offense, #14 in total defense, #22 in yards per play differential and #19 in turnover differential.  It’s surely worth noting that those below average offensive stats came DESPITE Jay Cutler enjoying a career best 92.3 passer rating and a career best 1.9-1 TD-INT ratio.  Now Cutler loses offensive coordinator Adam Gase , the new Dolphins head coach.  New coordinator Dowell Loggains was Cutler’s QB coach last year.  Head Coach John Fox and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio are both back, two well-respected defensive minds.

The Bears offseason moves were focused on improving that defense.  In free agency, they added Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan, a pair of three down linebackers.  First round pick Leonard Floyd (Georgia) and third pick Jonathan Bullard (Florida) are edge pass rushers –this front 7 is much better on paper than it was last year.  The secondary?  Not so much!  A unit that notched only 8 INTs last year did not get an offseason upgrade.

Last year, based on my numbers using power ratings the week that the game was played, the Bears faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.  This year, that strength of schedule declines significantly, down to a below league average slate!  That being said, Chicago has had zero home field edge for the last two years: 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS at Soldier Field; an emerging trend worth noting.

It was a tale of two seasons within one year for the Detroit Lions in 2015.  The Lions opened 1-7 SU, but closed out on a 6-2 heater to save Jim Caldwell’s job.  They were still moneylosers, finishing 7-9 ATS while going 9-7 O/U.  Detroit’s mainstream stats were similar to Chicago’s – below average in every category: 20th on offense, 18th on defense, 20th on yards per play differential and 26th in turnover margin.

The mainstream media has focused their attention on the early retirement of Detroit’s lone superstar, WR Calvin Johnson.   Even without Johnson, the Lions have a decent supply of skill position talent.  They signed Cinci #2 receiver Marvin Jones to be their no. 1, joining Golden Tate and Eric Ebron as their top receiving weapons. Running back Ameer Abdullah opens fall camp as the top back despite his fumble issues as a rookie last year.  It’s worth noting that during the Lions 6-2 run to close out the season with OC Jim Bob Cooter calling the plays, Stafford had 70% completions and a 110 QB rating, finishing the season with his best stats since 2011.

Detroit’s primary offseason goal was to improve in the trenches on both sides of the football.  First round draft choice Taylor Decker could start at left tackle on opening day, as could second rounder. A’Shawn Robinson on the defensive line.  Acquisitions OL Geoff Schwartz along with DL Stefan Charles and Wallace Gilberry are all upgrades.  And, after facing one of the five toughest schedules in the NFL in 2015, Detroit’s strength of schedule based on this year’s season win totals is below the league average, offering hope for long suffering Lions fans.

Like Chicago, the Green Bay Packers have a true split line with some books lining them as a 10.5 win team with juice to the Over; other books lining GB as an 11 win team with juice to the Under.  The Packers went 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS and 5-11 O/U despite finishing at or below the league average in most key statistical categories: 23rd Total Offense, 15th Total Defense and -0.4 yards per play (tied #25).  Green Bay did have a +5 turnover differential, tied for 10th. 

Without Jordy Nelson as a legit top pass catcher last year, Aaron Rodgers saw his stats drop dramatically.  His completion percentage dropped from 65.6% to 60.7%.  His yards per pass attempt dropped from 8.4 to 6.9 and his QB rating dropped from 112.2 to 92.7.  No surprise then, that the Packers dropped from the no. 1 scoring offense in 2014 to the 15th scoring offense in 2015. 

Last year, head coach Mike McCarthy gave up play calling and combined QB & WR’s under one positional coach.  That won’t be the case this year!  McCarthy will call the plays and Alex Van Pelt is back to coaching only QB’s.  McCarthy shook up his staff, bringing in new RB, WR & TE coaches on offense.  DC Dom Capers isn’t going anywhere, now in his 8th year on the job.

The Packers have all five starters back on their offensive line.  Their schedule, like the other teams in the NFC North, is MUCH easier compared to last year.  Their defense is deep and talented.  My biggest concern for this team is with their receiving corps – even if Nelson returns at full strength; this unit lacks quality depth.  If injuries strike, they’ll be wasting another year of an elite QB in his prime.

Last, but not least, are the Minnesota Vikings, lined as a 9.5 win team here in 2016.  Minnesota was something of a surprise team last year, improving from 7-9 to 11-5, while going 13-3 ATS (best in the NFL) and 11-4-1 O/U.  The Vikings won the NFC North and came a missed Blair Walsh field goal away from knocking off Seattle in the first round of the playoffs.  And the Vikings accomplished all of that despite some very mediocre stats, finishing with the #29 ranked total offense, the #13 total defense and a -0.1 yards per play differential (tied for #15). 

Head coach Mike Zimmer crafted an elite defense under Marvin Lewis in Cincinnati and he’s done the exact same thing in Minnesota.  The Vikings stop unit is loaded with quality depth on all three units, and looks every bit as good, on paper heading into 2016.  But Minnesota’s offense – particularly their blocking up front and their passing game – needed an upgrade.  Zimmer: “Teddy (Bridgewater) was running for his life half the time.  And we had a whole bunch of one yard runs.  We needed to make some changes.”

Minnesota will get two starters on the offensive line back off season ending injuries last year in center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt.  They added Alex Boone from San Fran at guard and Andre Smith from Cincinnati at tackle.  Bridgewater was mediocre at best in his second season in the league, but new deep threat first round pick Laquan Treadwell gives him another big target to throw to.  It’s worth noting that the Vikings have the toughest schedule in the division, based on this year’s season win totals.

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings Teddy Covers



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 7-8-2016: Syracuse Orange

07.08.2016     08:44 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured veteran handicapper Rob Veno. Rob broke down the Syracuse Orange who during the offseason hired former Bowling Green head coach Dino Babers.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO ROB'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/8 
Handicapper: Rob Veno 
Team: Syraucse Orange 
2015-16 Record: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS, 10-2 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: N/A 
Odds to Win ACC: +10000 
Odds to Win ACC Atlantic: +12500 
Odds to Win Title: N/A 
Week 1 Line: Syracuse NL vs. Colgate

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Syracuse Orange ACC Rob Veno



College Football Betting Preview Podcast 7-7-2016: Texas A&M Aggies

07.07.2016     10:27 AM     Printer Friendly

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured handicapper Drew Martin. Drew continued his coverage of the SEC with in-depth analysis on the Texas A&M Aggies.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO DREW'S ANALYSIS

Date: 7/7 
Handicapper: Drew Martin 
Team: Texas A&M Aggies 
2015 Record: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS, 4-9 O/U 
Season O/U Wins: 8un-195 
Odds to Win Title: +10000 
Odds to Win SEC West: +1200 
Odds to Win SEC: +2300 
Week 1 Line: Texas A&M -2 vs. UCLA

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.

Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies SEC Drew Martin






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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 23, 2016 02:11 AM.