MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Miami Marlins Andrew Lange Seattle (Elias) -115 at Miami (Alvarez) O/U 7.5
This will be the second straight start I've supported Seattle's Roenis Elias, a talented left-hander making his first run through the league. Elias has an above average fastball (92-93 mph) and good command of his off-speed offerings. He's probably been a bit fortunate and may run into trouble at times when teams get a second and third look but he's got legitimate American League middle-of-the-rotation stuff which is more than I can say for his counterpart, Miami's Henderson Alvarez. Despite being an extreme groundballer, Alvarez is very hittable having allowed 25 hits in 14.2 innings this season. His BABIP suggests some of that was bad luck but it is his overall splits point towards continued struggles vs. the Mariners. Because of his sinkerball ways, Alvarez gives right handers a tough time (.253/.292/.385). But against lefties, he really struggles (.291/.354./.470). Seattle has the ability to send as many as seven left-handed sticks to the plate. The betting markets simply don’t allow talented, young arms to hold much value for long so let’s get in on Elias with the less than -120 price tag.
Lange 10* National League Play of the Day [61% Documented All Sports 2014] $20
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Sports Betting Podcast 4-18-2014 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning
|Tags: MLB NBA Ian Cameron Erin Rynning|
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Blue Jay at Cleveland Indians
|Submitted by Andrew Lange|Tags: MLB Toronto Blue Jays Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange Toronto (Hutchinson) at Cleveland (Masterson) -140 O/U 7.5
When the mechanics of a bigger, taller pitch go awry, it can become a very difficult process of getting back to "normal." Cleveland's Justin Masterson isn't "right" and as a result his velocity is way down, his control is out of whack, and he's gotten pounded around in back-to-back starts (10 earned runs). I've bet a ton of Masterson's games over the last few seasons – on, against, under, and over – and these swoons of good and bad pitching have a tendency to go from extended stretches. Toronto's Drew Hutchinson has some upside with strong performances against Tampa and Baltimore. In looking at the young right-hander's numbers, we see the traditional right/lefty splits. Notice that his lone bad start of the season (3.1 IP, 6 ERs) came in New York against the Yankees who can stack the lineup with a slew of left-handed bats. Cleveland has that ability as well so I expect the Tribe to plate a few runs off of Hutchinson. Weather and wind not expected to be a factor as we fade them market and step in with a play on the over.
For more MLB coverage be sure to follow me on Twitter @LangeSportsmemo
NBA Playoff Handicapping: Betting markets show support for series higher seeds
Quick look at the opening and current series odds for all eight NBA first round playoff matchups courtesy of CRIS. The betting markets supported seven of the eight favorites/higher seeds with the exception of Toronto. Brooklyn went from a +125 underdog to a -170 favorite.
Opener: Brooklyn +125 vs. Toronto -145
Current: Brooklyn -170 vs. Toronto +145
Opener: Memphis +255 vs. Oklahoma City -310
Current: Memphis +330 vs. Oklahoma City -410
Opener: Atlanta +390 vs. Indiana -500
Current: Atlanta +485 vs. Indiana -650
Opener: Golden State +290 vs. LA Clippers -350
Current: Golden State +305 vs. LA Clippers -375
Opener: Dallas +450 vs. San Antonio -600
Current: Dallas +550 vs. San Antonio -770
Opener: Charlotte +1100 vs. Miami -2000
Current: Charlotte +1200 vs. Miami -2300
Opener: Washington +155 vs. Chicago -180
Current: Washington +180 vs. Chicago -210
Opener: Portland +165 vs. Houston -195
Current: Portland +180 vs. Houston -210
NBA Playoffs Betting Podcast with Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning
|Tags: NBA Erin Rynning Teddy Covers|
NBA Handicapping: CRIS posts opening lines on first round games
Quick rundown of CRIS's opening lines for Saturday and Sunday's NBA first round matchups.
Brooklyn at Toronto -2.5 O/U 193.5
Memphis at Oklahoma City -7 O/U 192.5
Atlanta at Indiana -7.5 O/U 187.5
Golden State at LA Clippers -7 O/U 210
Dallas at San Antonio -9 O/U 206
Charlotte at Miami -9.5 O/U 189.5
Washington at Chicago -5 O/U 182.5
Portland at Houston -5 O/U 216
NHL Playoffs Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche
|Submitted by ICC|Tags: NHL Minnesota Wild Colorado Avalanche Ian Cameron Minnesota at Colorado -140 O/U 5
Minnesota and Colorado played each other five times during the regular season and three of those games had five goals or more. We saw all three playoff games last night fly over the total and I think this game has high scoring potential as well. I'll give credit to goalie Ilya Bryzgalov for playing unexpectedly well late in the season but his career has been marred by awful playoff performances and I'm not ready to trust him to shut down a very potent Colorado Avalanche squad that ranked 4th in the NHL in goals scored this season. On the flip side, Minnesota is no offensive juggernaut (24th in the NHL at 2.43 goals per game) but they did show an uptick in offensive production late in the season scoring 3+ goals in six of their last eight games. As mentioned we saw a loose type of hockey in all three Game 1's last night and I think this game sets up for a similar outcome as we jump in on over 5 goals at the small plus price.
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NBA Gambling Alert: Brooklyn goes from series underdog to favorite vs. Toronto
Tags: NBA Brooklyn Nets Toronto Raptors
As of 9 am PT, the NBA betting markets was pretty light on offering series prices. BetOnline, which has made a point to be one of the first sportsbooks to offer lines, posted one that caught our eye as Toronto opened a -135 favorite but a wave of money now has Brooklyn a -138 favorite. Whoops.
MLB Betting: Milwaukee's Gallardo has been sharp through three starts
Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee (Gallardo) at Pittsburgh (Volquez) -110 O/U 7
Good article on FanGraphs about the reemergence
of Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo. Working with slower velocity than year's past, Gallardo is morphing into more of a groundball (53.6% YTD) pitcher. Through three starts he's posted a 0.96 ERA and 2.13 FIP.
In fact, his 2014 ground-ball rate is essentially identical to that of Justin Masterson, one of the quintessential sinker-ball pitchers in Major League Baseball right now. He’s throwing his fastball more often than he has in recent years, but more specifically, he’s throwing his curveball less often. He’s almost strictly been a fastball-slider pitcher this year, which has been a huge part of his increased ground-ball rate.
NBA Handicapping: Playoff picture clearer but a few matchups still yet to be determined
All 16 NBA Playoffs teams are set but there are still a few series that have yet to be determined. Indiana is the top seed in the Eastern Conference and will face Atlanta in the first round. Miami is the no. 2 seed while Toronto and Chicago are still fighting for the no. 3 and no. 4 seeds. With a win over New York tonight, Brooklyn would lock up the no. 5 seed. Washington and Charlotte are still in play for the no. 6 and no. 7 seeds.
In the Western Conference, Memphis is in following last night's win over Phoenix. Whoever wins Wednesday's Grizzlies vs. Mavericks game will be the seventh seed. San Antonio is the top seed followed by a TBA between Oklahoma City and the LA Clippers for the no. 2 and no. 3 seeds. No. 4 Portland will play no. 5 Houston in the first round. Golden State is the no. 6 seed.
MLB Handicapping: Philadelphia's Burnett will pitch despite injury
Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta (Wood) -130 at Philadelphia (Burnett) O/U 7.5
Feeling the need, at 37 years old, to be a hero, Philadelphia's AJ Burnett will attempt to pitch the remainder of the season with a hernia
. Burnett says he "felt pain just twice" during a recent bullpen session. He's also walked 12 batters in his last two outings.
"I'm going to have to deal with it," Burnett said. "Paying attention to it, knowing it's there, knowing what I can do to overdo it and knowing what I can do to keep it where it needs to be. I'm more of a go-getter and I'm not really a take-it-easy kind of guy, so it's going to be a test."
Arrested bookie had quite the x-factor when it came to collecting debt
Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Philadelphia Phillies
It's hard to go a week without coming across a report of a local bookie getting arrested. Take Floridian Thomas Welch, who was arrested earlier this week for running a fairly big off-screen sportsbook
. Welch's operation seemed fairly run-of-the-mill outside of one small detail. When "clients" didn't pay up he would send his goons to collect. One of said goons, according to the court affidavit, was compared to that of Hannibal Lecter. In fact, the phrase "he will eat your face off" was actually used by Welch to describe the gentleman. We assume he doesn't mean this guy will literally eat someone's face but for the sake of those currently in debt to Welch, get those figs settled ASAP, fellas.
NBA Gambling News: Mavericks will play regular rotation vs. Grizzlies
Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs Dallas at Memphis -3.5 O/U 190.5
Dallas plans on playing its regular rotation
tonight against Memphis despite having a postseason spot locked up. The team feels reaching the 50-win plateau is worth fighting for. Not to mention if they win they avoid top seed San Antonio is the first round. All three potential opponents (Spurs, Thunder, or Clippers) are obviously quality ball clubs but the Mavs haven't had a lot of success of late against San Antonio having lost nine straight.
“I’m not even thinking about that kind of stuff,’’ Carlisle said after Wednesday morning’s shootaround at the FedEx Forum. “If you can get a higher seed, if you can get 50 wins, you do it.
“It’s more than just avoiding San Antonio,’’ center Samuel Dalembert said. “It’s more like we have pride and we have goals, and we’re trying to reach that 50-mark.
NBA Handicapping: Toronto not concerned with first round matchup
Tags: NBA Toronto Raptors New York Knicks Chicago Bulls
The Toronto Raptors claim not to care who they play in the first round of the NBA Playoffs
. They are currently tied with Chicago for the no. 3 seed. A win tonight over the Knicks means Toronto will face either Washington or Charlotte. If they lose and the Bulls win (at Charlotte), the Raptors would face Brooklyn in the first round. Head coach Dwane Casey has been resting his starters at times down the stretch of the regular season.
“I’m more worried about us moreso than who we play. It’s about us. About our health, rest, whatever we decide to do in that situation. If we play Brooklyn, we play Brooklyn, if we play Washington, we play Washington, there’s no easy teams left in the playoffs right now, all the teams are very capable,” Casey said.
“Brooklyn is probably more playoff-ready, but we can’t control that and we’re not going into this game trying to control that. I’m more worried about our guys’ health — rest if we rest them — and our rhythm. And it’s a fine line between the two.”
NBA Handicapping: Bettors try to tackle tricky regular season finales
A lot of tricky handicaps in the NBA with tonight the last game of the regular season. Below is a list of key players who are either questionable, doubtful, or out courtesy of Sports Options.
Paul Millsap (rest) Doubtful
OJ Mayo (ankle) Questionable
Nikola Pekovic (ankle) Doubtful
Chase Budinger (ankle) Questionable
Chandler Parsons (rest) Doubtful
James Harden (rest) Doubtful
Josh Smith (knee) Questionable
Rajon Rondo (shin) Questionable
Jared Sullinger (ankle) Questionable
Deron Williams (rest) Doubtful
Joe Johnson (rest) Doubtful
Luol Deng (back) Out
David West (rest) Doubtful
Paul George (rest) Doubtful
Lance Stephenson (rest) Doubtful
Carmelo Anthony (shoulder) Out
Goran Dragic (ankle) Out
Rudy Gay (back) Questionable
DeMarcus Cousins (suspension) Out
Klay Thompson (rest) Doubtful
David Lee (rest) Doubtful
Stephen Curry (rest) Doubtful
Andrew Bogut (rib) Out
Ty Lawson (ankle) Out
Chris Paul (rest) Questionable
Blake Griffin (suspension) Out
LaMarcus Aldridge (rest) Questionable
Sports Betting Podcast 4-16-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Ian Cameron
|Tags: MLB NHL Rob Veno Ian Cameron|
NBA Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder
|Submitted by Teddy Covers|Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Oklahoma City Thunder Teddy Covers Detroit at Oklahoma City -14 O/U 211
The Pistons have been the #1 Over team in the NBA all season long; 55-26 (68%) to the Over through their first 81 games. Against Western Conference foes like the Thunder – teams that tend to play more uptempo than their Eastern Conference counterparts – Detroit has cashed Overs at a 76% clip in their last 30 ballgames.
Recent Pistons defensive efforts can only be described as dismal or non-existent – hence their 8-1 run to the Over in their last nine ballgames. They’ve allowed 100+ nine times in their last ten games; 110 or more on seven separate occasions during that span. Toronto – not exactly an uptempo squad – just hung 116 on Detroit in their last game.
OKC is coming off back-to-back sluggish losses against the Pacers and Pelicans, failing to reach the century mark in either ballgame following a streak of 20 games out of their previous 23 when the Thunder produced 100 points or more. OKC has something to play for tonight, looking to clinch the #2 seed in the West (and crucial homecourt edge in the second round of the playoffs). They’re a Top 5 offensive team, primed to put up points in bunches against the hapless Pistons this evening. And OKC will have sparkplug point guard Russell Westbrook back on the floor after he sat out Monday’s loss to New Orleans.
But while the Pistons defense has little chance to slow down the Thunder, Detroit continues to produce points on a nightly basis, averaging more than 104 points per game over their last five contests. With Josh Smith likely to sit again this evening, Detroit’s offensive efficiency numbers improve by leaps and bounds when he’s not on the floor. That sets the stage for another high scoring affair tonight; just like the last time these two teams met; a game that produced 229 points and flew Over the total with ease.
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Twitter bashes anti-online gambling crusade
Tags: NBA Detroit Pistons Oklahoma City Thunder Teddy Covers
If you have a Twitter account you've probably seen promoted Tweets – ones that companies pay for to ensure everyone sees. A few nights ago @StopNetGambling – old fart Sheldon Adelson's brainchild – had one of its "online gambling will cause the Apocalypse" Tweets promoted. The response was overwhelmingly "positive."
NBA Gambling: Pacers plan on sitting three starters in regular season finale
Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers Orlando Magic
Note that for tomorrow's regular season finale vs. Orlando, the Indiana Pacers, who have already wrapped up the Eastern Conference's top seed, will sit Paul George, Lance Stephenson, and David West. Roy Hibbert and George Hill will play but limited minutes.
MLB Betting Alert: Tampa's Odorizzi scratched for Gomes
Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles
There has been a pithing change for tonight's Tampa-Baltimore game. Tampa's Jake Odorizzi (flu) was scratched and will be replaced by reliver Bradon Gomes. Gomes has never started a game during his four-year MLB career. He's pitched in 87 games with an ERA of 4.46. Oddsmakers reopend the game with the Orioles and Miguel Gonzalez a -115 favorite with a total of 9un-125.
Sports Betting Podcast 4-15-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Ian Cameron
|Tags: MLB NHL Rob Veno Ian Cameron|
MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
|Submitted by Sammy P Sports|Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles Sammy P Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) at Baltimore -105 O/U 8.5
Tampa Bay and Baltimore get together tonight for their second game of the series. Last night saw the Orioles lay the lumber on young Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer. The O's strung together 12 hits over his five innings and the result could have been much worse than the 7-1 final. Baltimore has been swinging the bat well to start the season as they are second in the AL with 121 hits, but their main problem has been discipline at the plate. They should be able to see plenty of pitches tonight from Rays starter Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi had a terrible outing in Kansas City last week giving up 10 hits and 7 earned runs in just 5 innings. He's struggled to find the plate in both his starts averaging over 17 pitches per inning. Baltimore counters with Miguel Gonzalez on the mound who hasn't been much better. In fact Gonzalez has given up 10 earned runs already in just his 9.1 innings pitched. The long ball has particularly hurt Gonzalez as he's given up 4 homers in both starts combined. The total has gone Over in all four of their starts heading into tonight. This total is sitting at a very generous 8.5 and despite the lack of offense Tampa has been producing, tonight seems like an offensive breakout night for both clubs.
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Sammy P nailed his 20* NL Game of the Month yesterday with a 9-2 blowout victory! He has now put together a red hot 34-16 +26.21 Unit MLB streak and he hits the diamond tonight with another monster 20* selection. Sammy is very selective when it comes to MLB and this 20* MLB Power Play Favorite is his only play on the card. You can get this play for only $20, guaranteed to win or his next MLB report is free.
Erin Rynning's NBA Playoffs 80-46 63% L6 Years
Tags: NBA Erin Rynning
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NHL Gambling: Current Stanley Cup Playoff series odds
Below are the Stanley Cup Playoff series prices according to Pinnacle Sports. Be sure to tune into the Sportsmemo Podcast
today and Wednesday for our playoff previews.
Atlantic #1 - Boston Bruins -283
Wild Card - Detroit Red Wings +250
Atlantic #2 - Tampa Bay Lightning -110
Atlantic #2 - Montreal Canadiens +100
Metro #1 - Pittsburgh Penguins -231
Wild Card - Columbus Blue Jackets +206
Metro #2 - NY Rangers -145
Metro #3 - Philadelphia Flyers +131
Central #1 - Colorado Avalanche -134
Wild Card - Minnesota Wild +121
Central #2 - St. Louis Blues -105
Central #3 - Chicago Blackhawks -105
Pacific #1 - Anaheim Ducks -186
Wild Card - Dallas Stars +167
Pacific #2 - San Jose Sharks -140
Pacific #3 - Los Angeles Kings +127
Guess the St. Louis Rams' schedule and win six figures
Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams
This isn't really gambling so much as guessing but with a little research and common logic someone can at least increase their odds. The St. Louis Rams are offering $100K
to anyone who can accurately pick their regular season schedule – including any Monday or Thursday night affairs. Maybe this is a precursor to “contests” involving questions like Will Team A’s game vs. Team B Go Over/Under 47.5 Points?
"In anticipation of the Rams' 2014 regular-season schedule release, we are excited to offer fans the unique opportunity to win $100,000," team vice president of marketing Brian Killingsworth said in a statement. "We challenge our fans to accurately predict all 17 weeks of the team's regular-season schedule and win the cash prize."