Chicago Cubs (Wood) at Chicago WS (Peavy) -200 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over
With yesterday's wind pattern (right-to-left and gusty) we saw seven home runs and 15 runs at Chicago's Cellular Field. With a similar forecast projected for tonight, I think we can expect more than a few balls to leave the yard. Jake Peavy has allowed a modest eight home runs in nearly 90 innings – a very fortunate stat considering his fly ball rate is around 67%. For a pitcher to be that heavy towards the fly ball, his HR/FB rate should be well north of 10% instead of 6.8%. His rate is slightly higher at home (9.4%) but I still feel that he's going to have issues pitching in this park with temperatures on the rise and his innings starting to mount. Chicago's Travis Wood hasn't been very impressive this year (4.58 ERA) despite a handful of favorable matchups (at Minnesota, at San Francisco, vs. San Diego, at Houston). This may be his most difficult start of the season as the White Sox like to hit the long ball, especially at home (49 in 35 games). The Cubs offense isn't much to get excited about but the weather should help this game get up and over.
