We’re having a winning and profitable postseason and chipped in a Big Drive UNDER the total winner in Game 3 of the NBA finals. I’m well connected in the sports handicapping and betting business, and many Fairway followers and fans also send me stats, information and insight. Some scoring information was shared with me regarding the Heat along with their strong results vs. winning teams and I thought I would pass it along to you.
Recall in May I posted a NBA blog about Round 2 home favorites
being the biggest profit producers in any round of NBA playoff action. Additionally, I noted some other ATS profiles regarding teams off three or more consecutive ATS playoff wins and how to use that in your handicapping (Game 2 winner on Heat). We Tweeted a recommendation on the Oklahoma City Thunder as an underdog over the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals and also recommended a play on the Miami Heat as an underdog in the NBA Finals. The public’s overreaction to oddsmakers’ already adjusted prices is another reason to look for and understand value when betting. And of course to set yourself up for profit with adjusted series prices.
So here is some information on Miami. The Heat are 34-2 straight up when they score over 90 points at home, including 24-12 ATS when they top 90 points. Game 4’s total is 192.5, and using the betting line of Miami -3.5, oddsmakers project a score of approximately 98-95.
OKC’s offense is not nearly as potent on the road after going 9-1 a home in the playoffs while scoring at least 96 points in nine of those ten games. They were slowed against the stronger Miami defense in Game 3 in a 91-85 loss but note that both teams shot poorly (OKC 43%, Miami 38%). That’s not likely to happen again, as OKC has allowed an average of nearly 98 ppg on the road this season including over 101 ppg against winning teams with a .600 or greater win percentage (13 qualifying games). The Thunder have allowed an average of 101 ppg in their last seven playoff road games and Miami scored 91 points in Game 3 despite poor shooting as noted.
The Heat are also 12-1 SU when facing a team with a winning road record this season while outscoring them by over 11 ppg and averaging 96 ppg in the process. Miami is going to be tough to beat at home as the Heat had the best home record in the NBA during the regular season (28-5) and are 8-2 in the playoffs at American Airlines Arena. The Thunder must win one of the next two games to send the series back to Oklahoma City, or the Heat will be celebrating an NBA title in South Beach.
Fairway Jay is a recognized leader and one of the sports industries insightful point spread prognosticators. He’s a proven performer on the hardwood and posted four consecutive winning NBA season’s from 2007-2011 including a pair of 60% winning regular seasons. He’s having a winning and profitable run in the 2012 playoffs and has the experience and proven point spread profiles to beat the bookmaker. Join Fairway Jay on the basketball court and profit from his experience and well-rounded game. Follow on Twitter: @FairwayJay