A lot of talk about warm temperatures throughout the Midwest and East and the impact it has had on home runs. Over the last three days, there were 83 home runs in 36 games
. Yet from a betting perspective totals were 15-19-2 Over/Under (13-14 O/U if you eliminate games on the West Coast). The heat without question helps produce more home runs but the results show that with adjustments by oddsmakers and the betting markets, blindly playing games in hot temps over the total is far from automatic. It is my belief that games involving pitchers that are prone to fly balls that provide the optimal situation to bet Overs. Jake Wesbrook, Justin Masterson, Rick Porcello, and Dillon Gee all have groundball tendencies and fared well in recent starts whereas flyballers Phil Hughes and Bronson Arroyo were pounded for a combined six home runs. There were however some grounballers who struggled (Derek Lowe) and some flyballers who had success (Jake Peavy, James McDonald) so each game still requires a good old fashion handicap.
If you are looking for a scientific explanation on what heat and humidity do to the flight of a baseball, read here
. Note the author calling out Tim McCarver for saying that because of global warming, the air is thinner and the ball flies much better than it did back in his day. And that folks is why TV controllers come with mute buttons.
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