SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0
Erin Rynning Hot Streaks
46-18 72% +46.33 Best Bets
82-58 +31.95 All Sport
30-22 +14.1 MLB Season

All Access $299 Per Month
Sports Memo Ad 1
Ian Cameron The +50 Unit Man
227-174 +49.56 All Sport
61-40 +29.53 Best Bets
94-74 +21.175 NHL YTD

Daily Plays From $20
Sports Memo Ad 2
Sammy P Highlights
24-14 65% NHL PP Streak
+22.575 Overall NHL Streak

NHL Playoffs Pack $149
Next Five 20* Prepaid $99

Sports Memo Ad 3
A. Lange Highlights
22-9 71% +16.6 NBA Streak
30-20 60% +7.98 MLB Streak
59% All Sports Last 155 Plays

Editors Choice Plays $25-$29
Sports Memo Ad 4
Erin Rynning Baseball
101-90 +11.575 2012
Documented Top 10 Season

+14.10 2013 Season YTD
Season Package $749

Sports Memo Ad 5
Teddy Covers MLB
969-828 +73.00 Units
2005-2012 Seasons

2013 Season $749
Every 10* 15* and 20*
Sports Memo Ad 6
Rob Veno Hot Streaks
+44.140 Units All Sports YTD
74-49 60% Best Bet Streak
51-39 +13.19 MLB Season

Best Bets From $25 Daily

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Early betting notes on college and pro football

08.06.2012     11:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Betting on the upcoming football season during the summer months is a long, drawn out process. The NFL lines begin the process beginning with odds posted just days after the Super Bowl for the next team to win it all.

Then come Week 1 NFL pointspreads and totals, NFL season Over/Under wins, NFL lines for Games of the Year and from the brave bookmakers at Cantor Gaming, every single game on the board for the entire season. Last to market come the NFL season long proposition wagers and Week 1 preseason lines.

The process in college football takes a bit longer; no surprise in that regard with 124 teams on the regular betting board compared to only 32 NFL teams. The process begins, like in the NFL, with the future book – odds to win it all – that come out soon after the BCS Championship Game has been played.

College football Game of the Year pointspreads and Over/Under win totals come next. Last, but not least, we see those Week 1 lines come out – the lines that signify that yes, summer is almost over!

Over the course of the past week, just about every major sportsbook both here in Las Vegas and offshore has posted their Week 1 college football pointspreads. And, of course, to no one’s surprise, the early bettors had some very different opinions about the relative worth of those 124 board teams, resulting in a handful of significant line moves in the first few hours and days after they were posted.

This column is titled the ‘Wiseguy Report’ for a reason – most of my readers are looking for insight about the sharpest bettors in the world. Who do the sharps like in college football and why do they like them? Read on to find out, but before I do, a word of caution!

Sharp bettors are not a single entity; they are a multitude of individuals and groups, each with their own opinions. Most of the groups have not gotten involved yet, so the early money that I will describe is largely the result of individual betting opinions.

First, let me make this perfectly clear. Of all the different inflection point’ that come to pass as the football market slowly starts to mature, there’s only one group of wagers that attracts significant public money – the odds to win it all. Sharp bettors don’t ignore those bets, but they tend to focus on live longshots that have a puncher’s chance to win a title at 20:1, 30:1, even 50:1 or greater. For example, we’ve seen sharp money push down the odds on the Chicago Bears to win the NFC and to win the Super Bowl over the past few months. And there’s been some sharp money coming in on both Florida State and Texas to win the BCS Championship in college football. But those are the exceptions, not the rule!

123 FBS teams are not going to win the BCS title game next January, and 31 NFL teams are not going to win the Super Bowl next February. All futures on those teams to win it all will be losing bets.

When we add into the mix the relatively high hold percentage (house takeout) on those future book wagers, you can understand why the sportsbooks around Vegas keep them prominently displayed year round. I’m not going to call them sucker bets, but, quite frankly, they tend to attract more attention from tourists and amateurs, as opposed to wiseguys.

However, the rest of the betting options that develop over the summer months are nearly exclusively aimed at sharps. Tourists don’t want to lay $130 to win $100 asking the Bears to win more than 9.5 games in 2012. Rather, they want the big score, the fat payout that a Bears Super Bowl victory would offer at 25:1. Sharp bettors are looking for big scores as well, but their bread and butter consists primarily of wagers in the 11:10 vicinity.

College football Week 1 pointspreads are most assuredly in the 11:10 vicinity. And while the vast majority of amateur bettors haven’t done a whole lot of research on college football just yet, there were a handful of wiseguys who were chomping at the bit to take their crack at the virgin numbers; ready to pounce at the first opportunity.

That being said, lines weren’t flying all over the place – the vast majority of games took little or no action at the opener in most sportsbooks. But there were a solid handful of games that drew sharp money both here in Las Vegas and across the global betting marketplace. I’ll discuss four such moves below.

The single biggest mover was probably Ohio U taking money in their opener at Penn State. The Nittany Lions are seeing key players transfer out of town on a daily basis following the announcement of major NCAA sanctions. Sharp bettors like to bet against teams with fewer returning starters and the Nittany Lions had the fewest returning starters in the Big Ten BEFORE players like running back Silas Redd, wide receiver  Justin Brown, quarterback Rob Boldin, tight end Kevin Haplea and linebacker Khairi Fortt decided to leave town.

The corollary principle is also true – sharp bettors like to bet on teams with a high number of returning starters early in the season. They also don’t get intimidated by conference affiliation, willing to support quality teams from lesser conferences like Ohio U.

Frank Solich’s Bobcats are loaded defensively, returning eight starters on that side of the football, as well as their quarterback and 98 starts on the offensive line. The line move in favor of the road underdog Bobcats – down to as low as +6.5 in some spots – cannot be considered a surprise.

Nor should savvy market readers be surprised at the money that came on Michigan State, against Boise. The Broncos suffered even more graduation losses than Penn State, returning only seven starters – just two on the defensive side of the football. The last time Boise had less than ten returning starters was all the way back in 1996; a team that finished the season 2-10.

While Michigan State lost their quarterback to graduation as well, Mark Dantonio’s defense is positively loaded this year; a unit that finished ranked in the top 10 nationally in both points and yardage allowed last year. Early bettors expect there to be a world of difference between these two defenses right from the get-go with Michigan State bet up to -7.

We saw a trickle of early money come in on a pair of blowout teams. Oregon is most assuredly one squad that has made chalk bettors plenty of money in recent seasons; 26-12-2 ATS in their last 40 tries as home favorites in Eugene.

The Ducks offense has been one of the most explosive attacks in college football, averaging well over 40 points per game over the last five years! And the Ducks have been ready to explode right out of the gate, hanging 48 on Houston, 44 on Washington, 38 on Purdue, 72 on New Mexico and 69 on Nevada in their last five home openers.

The Ducks week 1 opponent, Arkansas State, was the class of the Sun Belt last year, but both their offensive and defensive lines were decimated by graduation losses. In a paycheck game for Gus Malzahn’s first foray as an FBS level head coach, the early money came on Oregon, driving this line as high as -35.5.

The other big chalk home favorite that took money right from the get-go was Nebraska in its Week 1 matchup against Southern Miss. Sure, the Huskers program has been on the decline, suffering at least four losses in each of the last eight years. And Bo Pelini certainly can’t match Oregon’s Chip Kelly’s ATS success as a home favorite, without a single winning season in that role during his first four years on the job.

But early bettors were looking to fade a Southern Miss squad that lost their head coach, both coordinators, a four-year starter at quarterback and most of their front seven on defense this past offseason. As a result, this pointspread was driven up to -17.5 in most locations.

Follow me on Twitter @Teddy_Covers

Tags: College Football NFL Teddy Covers





This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:




VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
PowerAccuNFLCFBMLB
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
Teddy doesn't release many 20* plays so when a play this big comes along you've got to get on board. His 20* Big Ticket totals are an incredible 24-8 across all sports his last 32 releases! This one is yours for just $29 and it's guaranteed to cash or his next baseball report is free.

$25
Sammy P hits the ice tonight with a big 15* best bet while riding a blistering 24-14 65% Power Play streak. Join him for just $25 and it's guaranteed to cash or you'll get his next hockey report absolutely free.

$20
Rob swept the board with a perfect 3-0 card yesterday and has now banked over +44 units in all sports in 2013! Ride the hot hand and pick up his 10* tonight for just $20. It's guaranteed to win or you'll receive his next baseball report at no cost.

$20
Ian Cameron has delivered a DOMINATING 227-174 all sports run in 2013 over his last 401 plays which has banked +49.56 units of profit! It's becoming a historic all sports run for Ian and his clients who have also enjoyed a terrific 42-30 MLB season so far which has put +10.54 units of profit in the bank! He's ready to keep both streaks going tonight with his 10* MLB Top Total! You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next baseball report is free.

$20
Ian Cameron and his clients are enjoying a terrific 94-74 NHL Hockey season which has banked +21.18 units of profit as part of his incredible run of +49.56 units of profit in all sports since January! Ian is ready to deliver a rock solid 10* NHL Playoffs Side winner! You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to go cash or his next hockey report is free.

$35
Sammy P has a pair of NHL playoff reports on tap tonight and you can pick up both in this one convenient package. His daily card includes his 15* best bet plus a 10* and it's guaranteed to produce a net profit or his Daily Card is yours free tomorrow.

$20
Marty has dominated with his NBA here in the playoffs going 73% to date. He's ready to drive home another easy winner with this 10* on Friday. Yours for $20 it's guaranteed to cash or his next basketball report is on the house.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
05.19 10:10
05.19 01:13
05.19 01:08
05.18 12:39
05.18 12:33

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     05.22.2013 11:18 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.20.2013 8:26 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.16.2013 9:49 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.15.2013 10:47 AM
Ted Sevransky     05.14.2013 11:29 AM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Marty Otto, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Alf Musketa, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 23, 2013 03:23 PM.