Boston (Buchholz) at Baltimore (Tillman) +120 O/U 8.5 
Recommendation: Baltimore

My clients and I cashed a right side winner betting on the Orioles against the Red Sox on Tuesday.  We stepped it up a notch last night, hitting our 20* Big Ticket using the same formula.  And while today’s pitching matchup isn’t nearly as favorable for the Orioles, betting (and beating) baseball is most assuredly more than just isolating favorable pitching matchups!  Given the current form of these two squads, Baltimore has no business as a home underdog despite the starting pitching edge for Boston.

Even if Boston has the starting pitching edge, the Orioles have a major edge when it comes to their bullpen and when it comes to finding ways to scratch out wins in coin-flip type ballgames.  The O’s are 22-6 in one run games this year; while going 12-2 in games decided in extra innings.  The Red Sox are just 2-6 in extra inning affairs and they’re a sub .500 club in one run games as well. 

Why the differential?  Baltimore’s bullpen ranks among the league leaders in ERA; Boston’s does not.  And Orioles manager Buck Showalter is making the right moves in tight games while BoSox manager Bobby Valentine is not.   Baltimore is in good current form; 9-2 in its last 11 ballgames.  Boston is not; just 4-10 in its last 14, watching their playoff chances slip away.

As we’ve seen more than once in recent years, once the Red Sox start to fall apart late in the season, whatever perceived starting pitching edge they have doesn’t seem to matter very much.  Boston just isn’t responding well to any adversity whatsoever these days.