In this edition of my Football Line Moves Report we'll look at the college ranks and report on some of the early action and predict which way it will move. Next week we'll add in some of the NFL line moves as well.
Penn State at Virginia
Virginia opened -7, now -10
Despite Penn State's emotional effort and a 14-3 halftime lead vs. Ohio U, the Nittany Lions fell apart like dominos and let the community, their fans and punters that bet on them down. Penn State has made it's hill to climb even steeper, because a win surely would have taken the pressure off this team. Instead, that pressure remains and a big reason why the line has moved quickly from -7 to -10, and bettors will continue to fade Penn State until they prove otherwise. The opener of -7 was too easy not to take for market players. Virginia handled FCS Richmond fairly easily and they boast a couple of Outland Trophy nominees in right tackle Morgan Moses and left guard Oday Aboushi.
Idaho at Bowling Green
Bowling Green opened -12, now -16.5
Huge move here. The Falcons were -12 for about 10 minutes and then -13.5 for most of Sunday night. On Monday morning a saying that is well known among professional bettors is, "we go fishing" meaning that when the majority of sportsbooks in Las Vegas and online finally post their opening numbers it is time to fish and see who has made a mistake or has a number that is too high and worthy of a buy-back. Bowling Green will surely get to -17 or a little higher before the market hedges some of their investment back. Idaho lost to FCS Eastern Washington 20-3, but EWU is a top 10 FCS team.
USC at Syracuse
USC opened -25.5, now -27.5
OK, this is not a big noteworthy move, however I just thought I’d mention that throughout the course of this season if you are not taking USC, LSU and Alabama in the first hour that their numbers are out you will get the worst of the number. Unless they are playing another top 5 team like Oregon, anything lined at less than -28 will jump.
Louisiana Tech at Houston
Houston opened -2.5, now La Tech -3.5
Houston just lost to first-time FBS team Texas State as -37 point chalk. Trust me, Texas State is not that good. Houston has major issues on offense trying to replace the some of the best skill position talent the program has ever seen. Add in a new head coach and it is apparent that this team is way behind and not ready to play football. The line moved Sunday night quickly to -3 and -3.5 and this was before news broke that Houston's offensive coordinator resigned. This line may climb a little higher I believe, the only thing that is preventing it from taking off to -6 or -7 is that Louisiana Tech's first game was postponed and they have yet to take the field.
NC State at Connecticut
NC State opened -1, now -6
This line move doesn't make sense to me. In my opinion this line is being set up by some very sharp handicappers and market players. If it hits -7 there will be an avalanche of Huskies money. Yes, NC State played a much tougher squad last week in Tennessee while Connecticut had its way with UMass who managed only three first downs, but we'll give kudos to head Paul Pasqualoni who always fields fundamentally sound defenses.
UL Lafayette at Troy
Troy opened -1, now -3
The reason for this line move is simple and you can use this in your arsenal of key handicapping factors and predicting line moves. If a team wins and covers against the spread the previous week and they were a popular play among bettors and or the public, they will be bet on again the following week. Many touts, handicappers and articles that I read from various sports websites all liked Troy last week. Now versus UL-Lafayette, in a good spot at home and betting into a line that is low, we wouldn't be surprised if this line goes higher still.