St. Louis (Lohse) -120 at San Diego (Richard) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over
The Padres spent a good portion of this season as the worst hitting ballclub in all of baseball. And Petco Field has been the most pitcher friendly venue in the major leagues since it was built. No surprise, then, that we consistently see totals in the range that we’re seeing for this afternoon’s Padres-Cardinals battle lined Over/Under 7.5 runs.
But the long term data both for the Padres lineup and for Petco has created a false impression in the betting markets. San Diego isn’t an under team right now. In their last six home games, the Padres have scored 6, 8, 6, 5, 8 and 11 runs. All six games produced at least ten runs or more; none of them had a total higher than 7. NL RBI leader Chase Headley: “That's the great thing about our lineup right now is (teams) can't just sit there and pitch around me because we have other guys who are swinging the bat so well.”
The Cardinals, too, are trending Over, cashing six straight Over tickets heading into today’s game; very quietly going 15-4 to the Over in their last 19 ballgames. St Louis has the highest scoring lineup in the NL but their pitching staff is slumping, both the starters and the overworked bullpen behind them. Expect another high scoring affair today in a series that has produced plenty of fireworks already!
