SportsMemo.com
Username:
Password:
Sports Memo Ad 0
SATURDAY CFB LIVE CHAT
w/ the Sportsemo Cappers
Thoughts and Analysis
FREE HALFTIME PICKS
Not a forum member?
CLICK TO SIGN UP FOR FREE
Sports Memo Ad 0
Weekly NBA or CBB $99
November CBB $149
November NBA $149
Full Season NBA or CBB $999
Erin Rynning NBA $1299
CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE
Sports Memo Ad 1
20* Prepaid Pack
Handicapper of your choice
Next Five 20* selections
Discounted Rate of only $99
Purchase online
Sports Memo Ad 2
WEEKLY FOOTBALL
Tuesday-Monday Coverage
College Football or NFL $99
CFB/NFL Combo $149
Great option for daily purchasers
CLICK HERE TO CASH IN
Sports Memo Ad 3
VIP FREE PLAY EMAIL
Enter email on front page
Free Play w/ analysis
See who's hot at Sportsmemo
Special unpublished offers
Register an account today!

HOMERECAPRADIOFORUMBLOGSLIVE ODDSTOOLSBESTBETSHANDICAPPERSTWITTERRSS FEEDFACEBOOKEMAIL & CONTACTS

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: How to bet college football bowl games

12.09.2013     08:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
During football season, I usually write about the NFL every week.  But it wasn’t easy to make broad generalizations about teams on a Sunday in which more than half the games were significantly affected by snowy or frigid weather.  And the college football bowl pairings were announced on Sunday Night.  So, I made the executive decision to take a one week break from the NFL this week to discuss my personal strategies for winning during bowl season.

Motivation is the key factor for any bowl game.  Overall talent and team speed don’t mean a thing when the players don’t give a hoot about being there.  That’s why underdogs tend to do fairly well against the spread in the earlier bowl games.  It’s not a reward for a favorite to end up in front of a sparse crowd in Boise or Detroit facing a team they’re not particularly excited about playing, especially if their second tier bowl bid came as a result of a relatively disappointing campaign.

Always check the local newspapers, blogs and yes, even twitter feeds for clues about any team’s level of preparation and intensity. If the favorite isn’t likely to be motivated, any halfway competent underdog is almost an automatic play.

Look for the areas of team strength that are not likely to be affected by a long layoff.  Remember, most teams will have been off the field for three weeks or even a month by kickoff of their bowl games.  In particular, teams that run the ball well are generally good bets in bowl games.  Run blocking is not something that suffers dramatically during a layoff, nor do the good running backs suffer from a month of rest.  Teams that outrush their opponents cover the spread better than 75% of the time in December and January.

Bet the coach.  Some coaches seem to do well in bowl games almost every year, while other coaches treat bowl games like a reward for their squads, with plenty of time devoted to extra curricular activities, and not that much focus on the game itself.   Some coaches stand strong in the underdog role; other coaches do their best work as favorites when given the opportunity to annihilate a weaker foe. These are not meaningless trends, or statistical aberrations.  Rather, they are a statement about how a particular coach views the bowl process for his team.

Look for motivated and talented quarterbacks.  When it comes to college football, the best quarterbacks are often the biggest moneymakers for their supporters. Most QB’s are team leaders, and the rest of the club will follow their example.  If a QB is prepared to make a statement in his bowl game, he’s generally the type of quarterback worth supporting with a wager.  Look no further than the regular season for some prime examples, with elite quarterbacks like Jameis Winston from Florida State, Bryce Petty from Baylor and Nick Marshall from Auburn all guiding their teams to 9-3 (75%) ATS marks or better.

Defense means every bit as much as offense.  The dominant defensive clubs are strong plays in bowl games almost every year – just ask anybody who’s been betting on Alabama in recent bowl games.  Strong defensive squads create turnovers and hold leads, exactly what you want from the teams you have bet on. 

Teams that fall behind in bowl games tend to get frustrated easier than they do in the regular season, one of the reasons why bowl season produces more than its fair share of blowouts, particularly as we get into the matchups featuring the very best teams in the first week of January.  Nine of the twelve bowl games played on or after January 1st last year were decided by double-digit margins. 

Heck, look at the conference championship games from last weekend as another clear example of fairly one-sided results, with six of the seven championship games decided by double digits.  Don’t think that means the favorites dominate – four of the seven double digit wins on conference championship weekend were won by the underdog (Bowling Green, Auburn, Michigan State and Stanford).  Be aware of this trend when betting in-game or at halftime – there will be plenty of ‘second half run-outs’ over the course of the next month

And, while this is obvious, it’s also worth stating clearly. Teams with the better quarterback AND the better defense are generally very good bowl bets, even though they’ll usually (not always) be the favorite. 

Which gets me to perhaps the most important point of all – just pick the winner! Straight up success correlates better with ATS success than any other factor, well over 80% of the time over the past 20 years.  Those long term results also tell us very clearly that when you bet underdogs during bowl season, be sure to have at least a taste of the plus price return on the moneyline. 

Bettors should also note the enormous potential returns on underdog moneyline parlays – even modest three and four teamers.  And it’s definitely worth noting that moneylines vary, often dramatically – much more than pointspreads from sportsbook to sportsbook, as do underdog moneyline parlay rules.  Line shoppers routinely get rewarded with bigger paydays, plain and simple.

Look for teams that are searching for respect or redemption.  When one club gets all the hype and publicity, and the other is virtually ignored by the media, or widely regarded as ‘lucky to be there’, the over-hyped team often comes in overconfident, while the under-hyped squad is usually more motivated.  Pay particular attention to this in the later bowl games, when the media glare really heats up.  Teams that enter bowl season off a disappointing series of late season losses can be strong ‘bet-on’ squads if they are properly motivated.  Also look for teams that came out flat in their bowl last year, looking for a better showing this time around.

Be sure to handicap the conferences themselves.  When a particular conference shows strength early on in the bowl season, the remaining teams from that conference are often worth a play, or vice-versa.  Every year there is a conference or two that does very well in the bowl games, while another conference or two will do very poorly.  If you catch these trends early you can ride them all the way through the conclusion of the bowl season.

Don’t be afraid to pass.  With so many bowl games, and so many intangible factors to consider during bowl season, there will be numerous matchups that simply don’t offer much value to bet on, either side or total.  Remember that the entire bowl season has fewer games than a single ‘normal’ Saturday college football card.  Sure, we know these teams well – they are the cream of the crop in college football this season, and just about every club we’ll see over the next months has been on TV multiple times this year.  But we don’t have 20 or 25 plays on a normal college football Saturday; there’s no reason to have that many plays when the card is significantly smaller.

Don’t let bad beats get you down.  I know it’s easier said than done, but people tend to get insane during bowl season when zany things happen at the end of the game.  Anyone who had Duke in last year’s Belk Bowl against Cincinnati still remembers the sting of that loss, and it certainly wasn’t the only positively brutal beat of the bowl season.  Wacky final minutes aren’t unique to bowl season, and bettors must do their best to avoid losing focus on the big picture (profitable results), even after a very tough beat (or two, or three). 
Using these factors in your handicapping process should help you produce a profit this bowl season.

Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers 


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




This blog is closed to new comments.

Visitor Comments:

Scott in Las Vegas
12/09/2013 2:46 PM
GREAT ARTICLE&TIPS!





VIP EMAIL CLUB
Add Your Email Address:
How did you find us?


More VIP Email Options
 
Email
PowerNFLCFBMLBNBA
Current Blog Topics
Ted Sevransky Hot Links
Current Blog Topics
SportsMemo Ads
Daily Plays
$29
On fire, Brent Crow is a perfect 5-0 100% with his CBB 15* and 20* Best Bets. He nailed one last night with Indiana winning outright against SMU. For tonight, he comes back with another big pay. Cash in for $29; guaranteed to win or his next hoops report is free.

$29
Sammy P nailed his 20* Game of the Month play last night and swept the board going 3-0! That makes it three straight 20* winners in the NHL! Sammy is starting to go on one of his patented NHL hot streaks! He hits the ice tonight with a huge 20* Power Play Total of the Month! Sammy looks to continue his top form in all sports in a game that is sure to pad your bankroll. Pick it up for $29; a guaranteed winner or his next selection is on the house!

$20
Andrew Lange is off to a profitable start to the CBB season. He's also been a consistent producer long term having hit 61% with his totals dating back to 2009. Cash in for $20; guaranteed to win or his next play is free.

$30
Teddy enters the weekend riding a 75% college football hot streak, delivering the goods for himself and his clients. Cash again with this Friday Night Watch & Win on Fox Sports 1 and ride this emerging hot streak one more time! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$30
Rob Veno has posted +84.67 units of profit since the start of 2013 and he kicks off the College Football weekend tonight with his Top Rated 10* CFB Best Bet Total. Rob's play is just $30 and must win or you receive his next CFB report at no additional cost.

$30
Ian Cameron flat out WINS in College Football and has been delivering the goods with an awesome 104-87 record for 54% winning action banking +21.7 units of profit since the start of the 2013 season including a profitable 2014 campaign up +9.2 units. He is ready to deliver the goods with a national TV Friday night winner with his 10* CFB Friday Top Side. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $30 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB report is free.

$20
Ian Cameron is already off to a SPECTACULAR 10-2 83% start to the new College Basketball season and that is just part of his stellar record of 305-245 for 55% winning action banking +32.8 units of profit in College Basketball since 2012. He is ready to cash in again on the college hardwood tonight with a late night 10* CBB West Coast Winner. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next hoops report is free.

$39
Fresh off an easy winner with his College Football Game of the Year last week, ER is back with another big play college football play. For Saturday, ER has released his 20* CFB ACC Game of the Year and he expects another easy winner. He's crushed with the big plays boasting a LONGTERM 128-89 59% record with his Best Bets. ER's 20* CFB ACC GOY play is $39 and is guaranteed to win or his next football play is on the house.

$39
Fresh off another wire to wire winner with Kansas State on Thursday Night, Teddy is now 22-11 67% with his 20* Big Ticket Reports in college football since the start of 2013 campaign, delivering +19.8 units of profit for himself and his clients! Wake Up & Win on Saturday with this early start 20* report! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$39
Off last week's 20* SEC Total of the Year winner, Andrew Lange is back with another total for this weekend's action. Lange has been Sportsmemo's top capper this year with 58% winners in all sports on over 400 documented plays. Get in early with this Total of the Month selection; $39 and guaranteed to win or Sunday's NFL 20* is on the house.

$39
Ian Cameron flat out WINS in College Football and has been delivering the goods with an awesome 104-87 record for 54% winning action banking +21.7 units of profit since the start of the 2013 season. He has crushed the big plays with an AWESOME 21-8 72% for +24.4 units with his College Football 20* releases since the start of last year. He cashed his 20* Mountain West Total Of The Year last week and is ready to deliver another very strong total on Saturday with his 20* CFB C-USA Total Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB report is free.

$39
Rob Veno has carved a spot among the industries best when it comes to his 20* College Football Bluechip Best Bets cashing at a 62% rate and increasing bankrolls by +57.0 units since the 2007 season. Since the start of last year he has dominated by going 22-10 69.0% with these premier plays and today he's focused in on another money making blowout in Totals action. Get on board with him for only $39; guaranteed to cash or his next selection is free.

$39
Paul Stone has now hit 8 of his 13 20*s this season and he's looking to add to it with a HUGE blowout lined up for Saturday's college football card. Get in early with this 20* Top Shelf report for $39; guaranteed to cash or Paul's next top rated selection is free of charge.

$39
Brent Crow is rolling, with a 14-4, +14.60 streak over the past six days in all sports. He has a solid 20-star winner for Saturday's college football after a perfect 4-0 on CFB sides last weekend that included his 20-star GOY winner on South Carolina. Its yours for just $39 and it must win or his next play is free. .

$35
Rob Veno has posted +82.67 units of profit since the start of 2013 and he's seeking his third consecutive winning CFB season. For Saturday action he checks in with a Top Rated 15* CFB Best Bet O/U. Rob's play is just $35 and must win or you receive his next CFB report at no additional cost.

$39
Teddy has absolutely delivered the goods with his strongest plays, his 20* Big Ticket Reports. Dating back to April Teddy is riding a 30-17 64% 20* run with his sides, up more than 22 units of profit. Cash in again on Sunday with his Big Ticket NFL Blowout of the Month! This play must cash or you will receive his next report at no additional charge.

$39
Rob Veno has been an ABSOLUTE FORCE with his 20* BLUECHIP releases in 2014 posting a 60-36 62.5% mark stacking up +45.56 units of profit and for Sunday action, he's released his 20* NFL BLUECHIP Monday Night Game Of The Month. Get on board with him for only $39; guaranteed to cash or his next selection is free.

$35
Rob Veno has posted +84.67 units of profit since the start of 2013 and for Sunday NFL action he checks in with a 15* Bluechip Best Bet O/U. Rob's play is just $35 and must win or you receive his next NFL report at no additional cost.


Extended Services
-----------SportsMemo-----------
SportsMemo Ads
Discussion Forum
-------------------------------------
Post Subject
Date
11.15 20:31
11.15 17:36
11.15 13:37
11.15 13:30
11.15 12:35

-------------------------------------
Current Blog
-------------------------------------
Ted Sevransky     11.20.2014 2:14 PM
Ted Sevransky     11.17.2014 8:20 AM
Ted Sevransky     11.13.2014 2:41 PM
Ted Sevransky     11.06.2014 2:45 PM
Ted Sevransky     11.03.2014 12:00 PM

More Blog Entries Submitted by Teddy Covers

-------------------------------------
-----------SportsMemo-----------





Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Nov 21, 2014 09:41 AM.