Austin Peay at Eastern Kentucky -6.5 O/U 154.5
Eastern Kentucky has been forced to play at a much slower pace this season due to lack of depth and talent. In nine OVC games, the Colonels have topped 70 possessions only once. They rank dead last in the league at 0.92 points per possession. And their average game score in those nine league games is only 133. Despite that, tonight's total against Austin Peay has been bet up to as high as 155. The reason is because Austin Peay doesn't play much of any defense. The Governors currently rank 345 out of 351 in defensive efficiency. In non-conference play, Austin Peay went seven of eight games allowing 96 points or more. Things haven't been nearly as bad inside league play as they've surrendered a more modest 78.7 ppg in regulation. Their average game score in OVC play is 153.8; a lower mark than tonight's total despite the fact they face the league's worst offense that generally plays at a slower than average pace. EKU enters on a two-game winning streak; both games fueled by solid defense. And like a lot of middle of the road mid-major teams, they tend to play better defense on their home floor. In 10 true home games, the Colonels have allowed only 67.4 ppg. This game actually has some meaning as the OVC Tournament takes only the top eight teams. Will need to have both offense and pace to top this number. I'm not sure we get both as we look to play it under the total.