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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

04.07.2017     11:20 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
San Francisco (Cain) -110 at San Diego (Perdomo) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over

The Padres gave up 14 runs on opening day, allowing the LA Dodgers to get up and Over the total all by themselves. It was the same story yesterday – five relievers combined to allow six runs in four innings following a very shaky start from Jered Weaver.

With the worst starting staff in the majors, we can expect San Diego to endure more than their fair share of ugly defeats this year. San Diego’s bullpen is every bit as problematic as their starting staff; a unit with an 8.18 ERA after their first four games.

Today’s matchup isn’t any better for the Padres pitching staff with that same gas can bullpen coming behind Luis Perdomo this time around. Perdomo struggled against this lineup last year – Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey and Denard Span all had multiple hits against him. And the Giants lineup has come out of the gate clicking on all cylinders, pounding out 17 runs in three games at Arizona, with all three of those contests going Over the total.

It’s going to be very expensive to bet against the Padres this year. They were +200 underdogs or higher in all four games of their just concluded series against the Dodgers. Yet the markets have loaded up on San Diego in early betting action on Friday. Why? Because the betting markets don’t trust Matt Cain and the spotty Giants bullpen any more than they trust Perdomo and the shaky Padres pen!

Cain hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since 2012. Over the last two seasons, he’s 6-12 with a 5.70 ERA in 28 starts. Cain had a Cactus League ERA of 7.82 with a 1.66 WHIP in 25.1 innings of work, not exactly bet-on type numbers.

The Giants bullpen behind Cain was a mess last year; costing San Fran their chance at another World Series title. Through their first series of 2017, despite a significant offseason restocking of that pen, San Fran’s relief corps is still a mess. In 11 innings of work at Arizona, the Dbacks hit .326 against them, plating eight runs in eleven innings of work.

There’s no extra juice to lay betting these Padres games over the total; my preferred method of fading San Diego right now. Let’s not forget that for as bad as the Padres pitching staff is, this team has a good handful of solid bats. And there’s no extra juice to lay fading Matt Cain today with an over wager either. No surprise here if we get to nine runs rather early in this one, and even if we don’t, the stage is set for some late inning shenanigans to help push this game over the total.

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants San Diego Padres Teddy Covers

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