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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

05.03.2017     10:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Baltimore (Gausman) at Boston (Pomeranz) -145 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Baltimore's Kevin Gausman hasn't had the easiest of slates so far with two games against the Yankees, a start in Cincinnati, and three against the Blue Jays at Red Sox. But there's no denying the amount of red flags. Gausman's strikeout rate has down nearly 3 per nine and his walk rate is an alarming 5.1. And over his last three starts he's coughed up six home runs. Gausman's velocity has been good throughout but he's introduced a slider that hasn't worked (.421 BA against) and his go-to pitch, the splitter, has been just as ineffective (.684 SLG against). In the end, a start in Fenway isn't ideal for a bounceback effort. Meanwhile, Drew Pomeranz appears healthy and thus capable with a 27-7 K-to-BB ratio over 21.2 innings. But I have my concerns with this being his third turn against the Orioles. He's fared well in the previous two starts (11.1 IP, 3 ERs, 10 Ks) but also allowed 22 fly balls and 12 line drives. First two games of the series went under but expect a different result tonight. Play it over.

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Andrew Lange

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