Atlanta (Foltynewicz) at Miami (Urena) -127 O/U 9
Recommendation: Miami

Alarming start last time out for Atlanta's Mike Foltynewicz who was pounded by St. Louis for nine hits and seven runs over four innings. Prior to that outing, the hard throwing righty had strung together three consecutive quality starts. Foltynewicz relies a lot on velocity with an average fastball around 95-96 mph. Against the Cardinals, he posted the slowest average fastball of his entire career (93.5 mph). Bad starts happen, but bad starts coupled with a dip in velocity are a major concern. Armed with one of the worst rotations in the Nationals League, the Marlins are desperately hoping Jose Urena is ready to step up. Urena was 17 when he signed and has slowly worked his way up to being a long relief option. In his first start of the season, he blanked the Mets over six innings. His numbers don't scream future star, but at 25 and with a live arm and solid control, he does have upside. Both teams have been in free fall of late with Miami losing 12 of 15 and the Braves 8 of 9. Yesterday's day off was needed, particularly for the suspect Marlins bullpen that was worked hard in its three-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals. In the end, this comes down to Foltynewicz and the red flags of his last outing. We'll step in and play the home side at the short price.