Atlanta (Colon) at Toronto (Bolsinger) -127 O/U 9
Despite a slew of key injuries and an aging roster, the Toronto Blue Jays have won 11 of 15 including seven of their last eight. During the span, the offense has somewhat come to life with 22 home runs and a respectable 4.6 runs per game. They plan on carting fringe starter Mike Bolsinger to the hill tonight. Bolsinger managed to navigate Cleveland's lineup in his first start by allowing two earned runs over 5.2 innings. He's not the type of arm you're looking to routinely support against some of the better American League teams but he has a very good chance to post similar numbers vs. the Braves.
The focus of this play however is not Bolsinger nor Toronto's injuries but instead Bartolo Colon. Colon has spent the better part of the last decade defying all sorts of logic by producing NL average numbers. In fact, he's only a year removed from posting a 3.43 ERA. But Colon's career is no doubt coming to an end and based on how he's looked thus far, he may not survive the 2017 season. Outside of an opening day gem against New York and start against San Diego, Colon has been routinely pounded around the ballpark. His hard hit rate (38%) is one of the highest in the league among qualifies starters. His ground ball rate (38%) is currently at a career low and as a result, his FB/HR rate is at a career high (14%). Last time out, Colon was asked to face an American League lineup on the road and was hammered for eight runs and three dingers vs. Houston. And with two 5-inning starters the bullpens will undoubtedly be involved; Toronto having the edge. In the end, not a bad price to step in and fade Colon.