Detroit (Verlander) at Houston (Fiers) -125 O/U 9
Justin Verlander flashes a decent 4.39 ERA but his walks per 9 innings are up, his strikeouts per 9 innings are down, his ground bell rate sits below 30% and his swinging strike rate is the lowest it has been since 2014. His road ERA also sits at 7.24 with 22 runs allowed in 27.1 innings to go along with 17 walks. Adding to it is the Tigers' mediocre bullpen which has a collective 5.08 ERA this season. With short stints by Detroit starters in the first two games of the series, it really puts the pressure on a declining Verlander to perform. Houston has averaged over five runs per game against righties this season and has the potential to hit that mark and some. Houston's Mike Fiers is an average at best starting pitcher who is capable of being hit very hard. He’s had a very uneven seasonwith a 5.14 ERA on the season and 17 home runs over just 42 innings. Should also note that Fiers owns a fairly strong "reverse split"; solid vs. lefties, very weak vs. righties. That's not an ideal profile vs. Detroit. In the end, I expect runs in bunches tonight in Houston. Play the over.