Los Angeles (McCarthy) +140 at Cleveland (Kluber) O/U 8
Recommendation: Los Angeles
The Cleveland Indians host the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight at Progressive Field. Corey Kluber takes the hill for the Tribe; his ninth start of the year and third since being activated from the DL. Last time out, Kluber went six innings and allowed three runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts against the White Sox. It was a very favorable matchup and the second time this season Kluber rolled through Chicago's lineup. In fact, if you eliminate Kluber's two outings against the White Sox, his ERA is an alarming 5.50 over seven starts.
Brandon McCarthy doesn't always get the respect he deserves because he's so injury prone. But when healthy, his stuff grades out as well above average. Note that his average exit velocity against, according to Statcast, is 84.4 mph. That ranks seventh-best out of 146 starters with at least 100 balls put in play. McCarthy has been throwing a cutter at a much higher rate this year which has significantly helped his ability to tame left-handed bats.
Cleveland is one of the most over-priced teams in MLB at nearly -15 units despite being a game over .500. Yes, the American League continues to dominate Interleague play, but this particular matchup is far more even than the price suggests. At +140, the Dodgers offer lots of value.