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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

06.28.2017     08:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Colorado (Freeland) -120 at San Francisco (Blach) O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

Expect the ball to be put in play and some this afternoon with Colorado's Kyle Freeland facing San Francisco's Ty Blach. Combined, the two lefties have tossed 167 innings and recorded only 88 strikeouts. And in 48 plate appearances, opposing pitchers have struck out only eight times against the soft-tossing duo. Regression has hit Blach in a big way. Over his first eight starts he flashed a 3.08 ERA including a complete game shutout vs. Philadelphia. Since that outing, he's been tagged for 22 runs in 21.1 innings. Freeland is perhaps a little more protected against a hard regression in that he garners a ton of ground balls (58.5%). But since his hot start (6 starts, 2.65 ERA) he's been far more hittable (9 starts, .295 BAA against, 8 home runs, 4.36 ERA). A few more starts at Coors and a Denver heat wave will be all it takes to see his numbers really start to bottom out. The question, however, is can these two below average offenses take advantage? Temps are expected to be in the low 60's but the wind is blowing out to left center which with two lefties on the hill, should yield a home run or two. You knew the 8.5 wasn't going to last but there's a clear reason why this total got played over.

Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies San Francisco Giants Andrew Lange

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