Boston (Fister) at Texas (Cashner)
Recommendation: Over 6 1st 5-innings
There a reason this 5-inning total is sitting at 6: Two above average offenses that rank in the top four in runs scores in the American League going up against two very suspect starting pitchers in a ballpark that has a tendency to play "small" during the summer months.
Boston's Doug Fister has been serviceable since being called (11 IP, 6 ERs) up but the 33-year-old veteran wasn't pitching in The Show for a reason. After parlaying his success in Detroit for a big pay day in Washington, Fister's stuff started to diminish. North of 30-years-old, Fister was then shipped to the Astros and thus the American League where he was pounded around throughout the 2016 season (4.64 ERA, 32 starts). The Red Sox are hoping he can chew up a few starts but it's not likely he'll produce much long term.
On the other side is Andrew Cashner, who after a strong April and May, saw his numbers skyrocket. While only recording 22 IP in June, Cashner gave up 33 hits. Cashner's new pitch-to-contact style got him through the first two months of the season but his stats (4.36 Ks per 9, 3.87 ERA, 5.39 xFIP) suggest his struggles will continue. In an earlier start vs. Boston, he was smacked around for five runs over five innings. And he was obviously afraid to attack hitters, hence four walks and only two strikeouts.
Respect both bullpens which is why we'll key in on the 1st five inning going over 6.