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NFL Handicapper Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers

11.18.2017     08:52 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly

Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Baltimore at Green Bay
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: Batimore -2.5 O/U 38
CRIS Current: Baltimore -2 O/U 38
Recommendation: Baltimore

We’ve seen the Packers offense for three games without Aaron Rodgers now, and Green Bay hasn’t been able to move the football effectively in any of them. Yes, the Packers were able to beat lowly Chicago by a TD last week; playing with a rookie QB in a game where Bears head coach John Fox literally gave away a touchdown with an ill-fated challenge. But they gained only 5.3 yards per play for the afternoon, converted only one of their three red zone chances into touchdowns, and did not pass the eye test any more than they did the previous week in a Monday Night Football home loss to the Lions.

To make matters worse for the Packers, the injury bug continues to bite Mike McCarthy’s squad. Their offensive line is riddled with key losses once again, with Brian Bulaga placed on IR and three starters listed as questionable for Sunday. They’ve got injuries all over the place on defense too, with Morgan Burnett, Nick Perry and Kevin King all questionable.

It doesn’t stop there either. Packers running backs Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, who have kept the pressure off Brett Hundley, are both banged up as well, with Jones out until December. And perhaps most importantly of all, Hundley hurt his hamstring last week. For a mobile QB who is at his best when moving out of the pocket and throwing on the run, that is most assuredly an impact injury, especially against the Ravens stout defensive front.

John Harbaugh’s teams have enjoyed great success off the bye. The Ravens are 7-2 SU after bye weeks in the Harbaugh era, including 2-1 on the road. That includes a 4-0 SU record against teams that enter the game with a winning record, like they’ll face here against the 5-4 Packers. Unlike Green Bay, Harbaugh’s squad is getting healthier; excellent news for a squad that was riddled with injuries right from the start of training camp. His quote: “I feel like we are more full strength than we have been all year.”

The Ravens season long statistics stink, in large part due to all the early injuries they suffered. Their 4.4 yards per play on offense, their -0.5 yards per play differential between offense and defense and Joe Flacco’s career worst 72.7 QB rating all look ugly for wiseguy bettors who peruse those stats closely. That ensures we’re NOT going to see any kind of significant market support for Baltimore this week, despite the fact that they are the superior and healthier squad, rested and ready off their bye. With Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead both expected back on the field this week, those season long stats are more misleading than accurate for the Baltimore offense moving forward.

Tags: College Basketball Baltimore Ravens Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers

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