Texas (Minor) at Toronto (Stroman) -150 O/U 8.5
The Rangers took a flyer on veteran Mike Minor and he's delivered thus far with a 3.86 ERA through four starts. Minor's early success, however, doesn't look sustainable. The strikeout rate is fine (8.57 per 9) but he's allowed 40 fly balls and only two have left the yard. This will mark a second turn against the Blue Jays. When Houston saw Minor for a second time, he coughed up five runs in five innings and fanned only two. Marcus Stroman has no doubt been unlucky with a .350 BABIP, 69.4% GB rate and 20% FB/HR rate. But there are still signs for concern. According to FanGraphs, Stroman's career "hard hit rate" is around 30%. This season, it's 50%. He also owns the fourth-highest exit velocity in MLB at 94.2 MPH. Last season, it was 88.5. Adding to my worries is Stroman's command issues. He's walked 14 batters in only 20 innings. It suggests than he either doesn't trust his stuff to come in the zone or something is physically wrong which may be the case as the soon-to-be 27-year-old righty dealt with shoulder issues during spring training. This will also mark a second start against the Rangers. This first outing didn't go well: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 BBs. Over the total playable after getting ticked down to 8.5.