Baltimore (Cobb) at Los Angeles (Tropeano) -170 O/U 8.5
Baltimore's Alex Cobb was up against it prior to the season even starting. He inked with the Orioles late in March and was vocal about saying he's simply wasn't ready to face MLB hitting. Three starts in and it's clear Cobb still isn't up to speed. He's allowed 30 hits and fanned only four batters in 11.2 IP. Some may point to his .482 BABIP as the main culprit for his statistical struggles but I look more at the eroding nature of Cobb's best and only plus pitch, the split/change. For much of Cobb's career, it was was his go-to offering. In 2014, opposing hitters batted .191 against it. In 2016, after missing a full season due to an injury, it remained effective at .219. Last year, it jumped to .310 and this year .444. Without that pitch, Cobb is a fringe MLB starter at best. Nick Tropeano missed most of 2016 and all of 2017 with Tommy John. He got a tough draw his last two starts with having to face the Red Sox and Astros but his velocity in trending in the wrong direction. Last time out, his fastball averaged 89.5 MPH which was the lowest mark of his career and two ticks below where he was at pre-TJ. Even with both offenses better built for southpaws, I see two vulnerable starters that make the total of 8.5 playable to the over.