Boston (Pomeranz) at New York (Severino)
Recommendation: New York Team Total OVER 4.5
When healthy, Boston's Drew Pomeranz has proven to be an effective American League arm. Last season he posted a stellar 3.32 ERA and 9.02 K rate over 173 innings. But throughout his career, he's battled mechanics and health and when not right, Pomeranz quickly becomes very hittable. During spring training, the lefty had arm trouble and was placed on the DL. Since his return, it's clear he's not even close to 100%. The biggest red flag is Pomeranz's velocity. Last year his 4-seamer was consistently 91-92 mph. This year, all three starts show him at 89 mph. This has lead to a paltry 8.9% soft hit rate (20.3% in 2017) and 42.2% hard hit rate (32.5% in 2017). His swinging strike rate has also dropped from 10% to 7% and his average exit velocity is up close to 3 MPH. Then there is the concern about tonight's step up in class. Pomeranz drew the A's, Rays, and Royals his first three starts. Now he's on the road against one of the best offenses in baseball. And 2018’s R/L splits (.659 SLG vs. R, .286 SLG vs. L) are even more pronounced than his career numbers (.409 SLG vs. L, .309 SLG vs. R). The Yankees project to put as many as seven righties in the lineup tonight. Tough to get involved from a moneyline perspective with Severino commanding a rich -215 price tag. Think we can get creative and look to play New York's team total over 4.5.