Cincinnati (Romano) at Colorado (Gray) -200 O/U 11.5
The highest total on the MLB betting board on Friday is at Coors Field in Colorado. The early sharp money has shown for the Over as well, although savvy bettors can find a plus price return on Over 11.5, the current prevailing number. On a warm, clear, dry night in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, we can expect both of these offenses to produce runs in bunches.
Colorado’s Jon Gray threw three consecutive dominant starts in late April/early May. But all three of those outings came against struggling lineups. Against two decent hitting teams in his last two starts – San Francisco and Milwaukee – Gray struggled from the opening pitch, allowing 19 hits and 11 earned runs in just nine innings of work. It’s surely worth noting that Gray’s velocity was down fairly significantly in those last two outings.
Cincinnati has seen Jon Gray before and had success against him before, with current Reds hitting .306 against him. Cinci comes into this game in solid offensive form, scoring 16 runs in their just concluded series against the Pirates. And behind Gray, the Rockies bullpen has been showing real cracks of late; blowing a pair of saves in the last week alone.
But Gray’s struggles are nothing compared to those of Cinci starter Sal Romano, who has shown precious little ability to retire major league batters with any level of consistency. He’s allowed 15 runs in 17 innings of work in four previous road starts this season. He issued six walks last time out and as a fly ball pitcher, his struggles with the home run ball have been consistent. Cinci’s bullpen isn’t a trustworthy unit anywhere. At Coors, they’re a late inning gas can just waiting to burn. Expect runs in bunches from both squads in a game that has slugfest written all over it!