Take Baltimore -7 (South Point) (#460)
Sharp money has been pouring in on the Baltimore Ravens over the past few weeks, driving this line up to a TD or higher in some locations. And while bettors won’t be getting the best of the number to back Baltimore at the current price, this game has ‘ugly blowout for the Bills’ written all over it!
The Bills won nine games last year, despite a Pythagorean expectation (based on points scored and allowed) that showed Buffalo as a 6.5 win team. Those nine wins were every bit as ‘lucky’ as any other factor, without a single victory by more than ten points. Seven of the wins came against sub .500 foes; legit bottom feeders: the Jets, Broncos, Dolphins (twice), Bucs, Raiders and Colts.
Obviously, no position is as important as the quarterback. Coming into 2018, the Bills arguably have the worst QB situation in the league. Nathan Peterman played the single worst half of football I’ve ever seen an NFL QB play (against the Chargers) before getting benched in his lone start as a rookie last year. His preseason didn’t inspire much confidence either, and the Ravens aggressive defense is primed to give Peterman fits.
Buffalo has a whopping $46 million in dead cap space this year. To put that number in perspective, the #31 team in the NFL in dead money this year – Dallas – has $25 million in dead cap space. The Bills spent the offseason jettisoning veterans, dumping salary and rebuilding for the future. Their offensive line has replaced three starters; the back seven on defense is loaded with question marks and the Bills look very much like the single worst team in the NFL coming out of camp.
The Ravens, on the other hand, have something to prove in Week 1 after missing the playoffs in each of the last three seasons. They came out of the gate last year with back-2-back double digit wins, and I expect Coach Harbaugh to have them ready right from the get-go again this year. Chalk worth laying! Take the Ravens.
Via Teddy Covers