The Miami Heat has obviously undergone a complete transformation and makeover with the recent trade of Shaquille O’Neal.  In handicapping the NBA with success, it’s ultra-important to try to grasp and understand these types of makeovers from a betting perspective as I thought the Heat in general present an interesting study.  Again, quickly grasping any radical changes with a proactive approach can provide fruitful betting opportunities in the sometimes slow betting marketplace.  

The major news out of the Heat camp with the addition of Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks was to play a more up-tempo style.  In fact, head coach Pat Riley even mentioned his ‘Showtime Lakers’ in the same breath.  However, what needed to be remembered was adding both Marion and Banks as ‘plus’ defenders, while Shaq more of a liability on that end of the court in this era of his career.  In addition, the struggling Heat had played little on the defensive end all season.  Finally, the return of Udonis Haslem off his ankle injury added another ‘plus’ defender to the mix.  With many of the Heat games taking ‘OVER’ money, they’ve actually recorded three ‘UNDERS’ in their last three games. 

Since Marion and Banks arrived in Miami for their first game against the Los Angeles Lakers, I’ve upgraded their defensive rating by a full and amazing nine-points.  Conversely, I’ve downgraded the Phoenix Suns defense since Shaq arrived in the Valley of the Sun by almost six full points.  Last night’s game in Seattle for the Heat was another learning opportunity for me.  One month ago, and in year’s past I know I would have been all over the Sonics plus two points in a supreme situation.  The Sonics were off an embarrassing effort at home against the Denver Nuggets, while the Heat were playing an ultra-tough back-to-back off a TNT date against the Lakers.  However, my ratings clearly favored the improving Heat, which simply kept me off the game. 

Again, it’s imperative to continue to learn and improve in your handicapping process whether you’re a seasoned veteran or just starting the progression.    

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