Assuming the Red Wings will play host to the Penguins in the Stanley Cup Finals, Detroit will be looking for its first Stanley Cup since 2001. If they were to win the Cup, they would be the only team in the NHL to win two Stanley Cups this decade. Detroit has been dominant at home during the playoffs with a 7-1 record in the confines of Joe Louis Arena. Much of their success during the entire playoffs has to do with their defense and goaltender Chris Osgood. The Red Wings were the best defensive team in the league during the regular season and nothing has changed this postseason. Osgood has been fantastic since stepping in for Dominik Hasek, who was replaced in the first round of the playoffs when Detroit took on the Nashville Predators. Osgood is 9-2 with a 1.65 goals against average and a save percentage of .927 with one shutout.
The Red Wings however will be at a disadvantage with their best playoff performer, center Johan Franzen, likely to miss the rest of the playoffs with concussion-like symptoms. While Franzen has been cleared for light workouts off the ice, he does not appear to be close to returning to game action. Franzen currently leads the NHL with 12 playoff goals. Without Franzen, Detroit’s offense has scored two goals or fewer in three out of their last four games. But even without Franzen, the Red Wings do have depth with all-star forwards Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Zetterberg’s 19 points in the postseason tie him for the league lead with Penguins’ captain Sidney Crosby. Datsyuk has 18 points which ties him with Evgeni Malkin of Pittsburgh. The Red Wings won the Presidents Trophy in the regular season for a reason.
If you’re the Pittsburgh Penguins, what a difference four years make. Four years ago, Pittsburgh was the worst team in hockey: 23-47-8-4, 58 points. That mark was the worst in the league. Now the Penguins are on the verge of going to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since their last Stanley Cup victory in 1992. Pittsburgh has been the single most dominant team in the Stanley Cup playoffs this season, losing just two games through three rounds of the playoffs. Much of that success has to do with their home ice domination. Since the start of the postseason, the Penguins are 8-0 at Mellon Arena and 16-0 at home since a 2-1 shootout loss to San Jose -- nearly three months ago. Everyone focuses on Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, which is certainly worth doing considering the back-to-back No. 1 draft picks for the Penguins have lived up to their billing tenfold. But there are other outstanding aspects to this club. I’m going to focus on their underrated defense starting with their other first overall pick (2003), goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury has always been under scrutiny since he came into the league. As an 18-year old rookie, Pittsburgh yielded a league-worst 303 goals, almost 50 more than the next worst team. This year, Fleury has stepped to the forefront and is playing like a top pick should. The 23-year old has gone 12-1 in the postseason with a 1.74 goals against average, and .937 save percentage. Another solid move that General Manager Ray Shero made was bringing in stay-at-home defenseman Hal Gill. While his name won’t show up on the score sheet, Gill has brought size and stability to a Pittsburgh defense that was in need of a major overhaul. Overall, Pittsburgh’s offense is what makes the headlines, but the goaltending of Fleury and a sound defense make them a truly well-rounded team.
The Red Wings will be favorites in this series largely because they have experience on their side. They have the goaltending in Osgood and the defense with all-stars Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski. They also have Zetterberg and Datsyuk, who not only are their best offensive players, but some of their best defensive players as well. While Detroit has somewhat coasted to the Stanley Cup Finals, they have not yet faced a team that can throw this much fire power at them yet. Crosby, Malkin, Petr Sykora, Marian Hossa, and Ryan Malone all have 20 goals or more this season and their defense with Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney matches the offensive capabilities of Lidstrom and Rafalski. This is one of the most evenly matched Stanley Cup Finals that we have seen since the lockout. The Red Wings will likely be moderate favorites heading into this matchup, but I feel it will be Pittsburgh who will hoist the Stanley Cup when all is said and done. My recommendation is to take the Penguins at the plus series price to beat Detroit in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Recommendation: Pittsburgh +140