Here’s the quote from longtime Caesar’s Palace Race and Sports Book Director Chuck Esposito: “I’m guessing (this year’s NBA Finals) will generate the most action since some of the Jordan/Bulls finals. I would easily put the Lakers and Celtics as one and two or one and three (most popular NBA bets), the only other teams that draw that much interest in the NBA would also be the Bulls and Knicks. The action in the finals should be unreal.”
There is almost always an advantage for sharp bettors in situations where public money must be accounted for in the linesmaking process. Remember, with the lone exception of the NFL, lines are set in every other sport to beat the professional bettors, not the public. In a series like this, with an influx of public money, the betting marketplace can get skewed.
In particular, I expect the sports betting marketplace to over-adjust from one game to the next, based on the public's reaction to the previous game. The single most profitable long term trend in the NBA playoffs is to back quality teams off subpar showings -- these type of teams tend to bounce back extremely well off a poor performance. In this series, I expect we'll find more than one opportunity to back a top notch team off a lousy game at a pointspread that reflects the public money.
Another area where the public tends to over-react is with the importance (or lack thereof) of the home court. And with the Celtics winning and covering at home in Game 1, that should only intensify the trend.
Amateur bettors don’t seem to have noticed, but road teams had a winning ATS record in the two conference finals (6-5 ATS) after their collectively horrific showings in Round 2. That number would be 7-4 were it not for Sasha Vujacic's unlikely (and unwarranted) three pointer at the buzzer in Game 5 against the Spurs.
The Celtics were the best road team in the league during the regular season, and they snapped out of their postseason funk with a pair of strong wins and covers at Detroit in the Conference Finals. The Lakers have been the best road team here in the playoffs -- in fact, the only team through the first three rounds of the playoffs to earn a winning record SU and ATS on the highway.
I expect the betting marketplace (in particular square bettors) to over-value homecourts here in the Finals as well. Let's not forget that the Lakers, even after their Game 1 loss, went 15-3 ATS as an underdog of less than six points this year, while the Celtics went 8-2 ATS as underdogs of three points or more this year, and they'll be dogs of three points or higher in all three games at LA.....
